ACUS11 KWNS 162053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162053
UTZ000-162300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 162053Z - 162300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a
chance for occasional large hail and damaging wind gusts. Watch
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a developing supercell
across portions of central/northeastern Utah. While available
buoyancy remains relatively modest (generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE),
strong upper-level flow is contributing to effective shear of 40-50
kts, which will continue to support a supercellular storm mode as
convection evolves eastward through this evening. The primary risk
with this activity will be large hail owing to elongated, relatively
straight hodographs; however, mid-level lapse rates remain somewhat
modest (around 7 C/km), which should temper the overall magnitude of
the large hail threat. Isolated damaging/severe wind gusts are also
possible, especially with any stronger downdrafts and/or evolving
clusters. The overall magnitude and spatial extent of the severe
risk are expected to remain too limited to warrant watch issuance,
however.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 09/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7O-6QKlRThmWu94yHebeGfm_DQrJudAn3aW6jT8d0IJsSD9O4M9q7izMnc_Sh3ldthAuQpzUrZYF5DF4wMjq52ovQPM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 39121136 39221161 39451177 39661184 40031177 40361117
40461010 40370944 40150916 39830909 39540918 39340951
39191018 39121136

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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