ACUS11 KWNS 161946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161946
OHZ000-INZ000-162145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...east-central Indiana into central Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161946Z - 162145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated gusty winds of 45-60 mph will be possible with
stronger thunderstorms developing through early evening. Overall
risk is expected to remain limited, and a severe thunderstorm watch
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing near the IN/OH
state border this afternoon. This activity is developing ahead of a
stalled front and on the southern periphery of stronger effective
shear located north of this boundary. Stronger heating across
east-central IN into central OH has allowed temperatures to warm
into the 80s to near 90 F amid mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in
moderate instability. Effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt may
allow for some storm organization. However, weak midlevel lapse
rates will limit longevity of any stronger/better organized
updrafts. Nevertheless, steepened low-level lapse rates and high PW
values could support sporadic strong outflow wind gusts. Overall,
the risk is expected to remain limited and mostly sub-severe wind
gusts are anticipated, precluding watch issuance.

..Leitman/Hart.. 09/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_fYPjM8_NY5VfIBA0wcE9YroLknSj6I4OwTsHI8iee93nnqPWpmJWcS2aYudsC1Xdwy3-jAN5ek5Hw996cfHkpOKHGE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 40178559 40798440 40878292 40458191 40008182 39698200
39448292 39368434 39548533 39888566 40178559

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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