ACUS11 KWNS 151936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151935
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-152130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...northeast KS into northern/central MO and central
IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151935Z - 152130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will increase through late
afternoon. Sporadic strong wind gusts may accompany this activity
through the evening hours. A severe thunderstorm watch is not
currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorms are developing along a
pre-frontal trough and residual outflow from eastern KS through
north-central MO into IL this afternoon. This activity is developing
well ahead of a surface cold front within the hotter, well-mixed
boundary layer, and on the southern periphery of strong effective
shear closer to the cold front. These initial storms will pose a
risk for sporadic strong wind gusts within the moderately unstable
and steep low-level lapse rates environment. Modest vertical shear
will generally limit a more organized risk, though a few gusts
around 50-60 mph could accompany stronger cells.

Additional development may occur closer to the cold front as it
continues to develop southward through evening. While stronger
vertical shear will exist closer to the boundary, convection will
likely tend to develop over, or quickly move to, the cool side of
the boundary given poor low-level convergence and deeper-layer boundary-parallel flow. While sporadic strong wind gusts could
accompany stronger convection, the overall risk is expected to
remain limited.

..Leitman/Hart.. 09/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5LRV9R9_nK-Ajfw8OVadBTTpr8DHWx7eA4aE3L1YxyLGmCXoQ2hw0jtVEUXQL91I6HJxYnw1Hb_IzOZoNNsCj3HgwQM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38629615 39459530 40079410 41009043 41478816 41088774
40398777 39618806 38768926 38269089 38049299 37969524
37979606 38399621 38629615

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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