ACUS11 KWNS 142333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142332
IAZ000-150030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of western into northern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 142332Z - 150030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An instance or two of marginally severe hail may accompany
one of the stronger storms. The severe threat should remain sparse,
so a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
along a confluence zone, where maximized 925 hPa frontogenesis and
850 hPa WAA are taking place. These storms are developing atop a
stable boundary layer, with 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE constrained above 850
hPa. As such, the ongoing storms are likely elevated in nature, and
are benefiting from the strong tropospheric flow and 50 kts of
effective bulk shear. A couple of marginally severe hailstones may
occur with the stronger, sustained updrafts. However, any severe
threat that materializes will likely be limited, so a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5RbfFDxSbBgwr6yKXC0vu0EZPccXI0qeJ5lNZ_2bwlv50ttmUo3WUVO9m0lYLwkIgHbrai6i88JxDDbFvvt7YWlLLEQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 42029543 41999586 42019594 42049603 42099609 42289591
42859504 43369406 43449336 43199293 42719313 42309404
42029543

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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