ACUS11 KWNS 142009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142009
KSZ000-NEZ000-142245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2293
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Parts of western Kansas into south-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 142009Z - 142245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage through the
remainder of the afternoon into early this evening. The stronger
storms will be capable of producing a few severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based thunderstorms are evolving within a NE/SW-oriented surface trough in southwestern KS, with additional
deepening cumulus embedded within a zone of warm advection over
north-central KS and south-central NE. In southwestern KS, the
modified 18Z DDC sounding depicts steep low/midlevel lapse rates and
30-40 kt of southwesterly flow through the depth of the boundary
layer. This will promote robust thunderstorm downdrafts, with a risk
of severe wind gusts -- especially with any small clusters that
evolve. Farther northeast, thunderstorm development/intensification
is more uncertain, given the persistent cloud coverage and showers. Nevertheless, temperatures have warmed into the lower/middle 90s
amid 40-45 kt of flow in the lowest 2 km AGL (per UEX VWP data).
Therefore, any thunderstorms that mature in this environment will
also pose a risk of severe wind gusts through the afternoon and
early evening. It is unclear if the severe risk will warrant a
watch, though convective trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_tM8gOxaGfF3FeDhBeTOk0STp2HjspZ_u3S9WkrdVp4T4USb4ULUdKSt32l6Hf5ZWPbJd2HiNjooSY9ksBfVsI8kMdw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38510178 39170114 39870023 40299944 40389891 40349851
40189812 39799788 39499806 37750121 37680174 37830198
38160198 38510178

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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