ACUS11 KWNS 172039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172038=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-172345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Areas affected...western/central NY and northern PA

Concerning...Snow Squall=20

Valid 172038Z - 172345Z

SUMMARY...Long-lived snow squall may persist into early evening,
while likely diminishing in areal extent/intensity.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived snow squall which began west of Cleveland,
has recently passed through the Buffalo Metro Area, with numerous
first-order observing sites along Lake Erie having recorded
half-mile or less visibilities and gusts of 30-40 kts. More sporadic
snow squall conditions have been noted along the trailing portion of
the band that is now in western PA. A pocket of warmer surface
temperatures in western NY may help sustain the squall near the Lake
Ontario vicinity into early evening before more prominent weakening
of lapse rates. Large-scale mid-level warming will lower inversion
heights and combined with the onset of nocturnal surface cooling,
these factors should aid in the squall diminishing. This is
supported by latest RAP/early-afternoon CAM guidance with a
reduction in the snow-squall parameter and simulated reflectivity
trends towards 00Z.

..Grams.. 01/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5I-N8mAZuGR6DP6dVAcpULewVsrZ15362af9g7U9c9cs4Wl9ipTEoIUHPGm-gJeO5FDZ2CKpy= xQ8dLW0xnB8mbNw3WA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 42967861 43257840 43437779 43397683 43607640 44027616
44107553 43437542 42617619 41987692 41617771 41317823
41227858 41217921 41387937 41677928 42487874 42967861=20


=3D =3D =3D
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