FOUS30 KWBC 011503
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1003 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Jan 01 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 02 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...16Z Outlook Update...
Changes to the Slight Risk area in southern California currently
reflect convective trends, wtih deep convection persisting along
and ahead of a surface cold front over Pacific waters approaching
that area. Mesoanalyses depict a pool of weak surface-based=20
instability just offshore of San Diego County that has enabled=20
deeper convection to materialize and repeat/train into portions of=20
San Diego Metro. This regime, along with persistent orographic lift
against the Transverse and Peninsular coastal ranges, will=20
continue to support flash flooding in addition to mud/rock slides=20
and occassional near-stream flooding for at least another 6 hours=20
or so. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward to the=20
international border and trimmed on its westward extent across=20
Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties based on aforementioned trends.=20
The Marginal Risk areas remain in tact as a large upper low=20
approaches the state of California, spreading areas of moderate to=20
heavy rainfall especially across coastal/Sierra front ranges=20
through the evening.

See the previous discussion for additional information.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

A 500mb trough with a small, yet potent, closed circulation will
become part of a negatively tilted 200-500mb upper-trough axis
that is partially responsible for the slug of highly anomalous
moisture that will engulf much of the West today. The focus remains
on Southern California where the Transverse Ranges soils remain
quite sensitive in wake of last week's significant flooding. IVT
values are encroaching upon 500 kg/m/s and embedded within SSWrly
flow that is aligned orthogonally to the Transverse Ranges.
Additional forcing will be located along the frontal boundary that
will trigger additional convection over the East Pacific upon
approach. PWATs are forecast to be just over 1.25" off the Southern
California coast through this morning, but around 18Z, a dryslot
in the 700-300mb layer should result in the conclusion of today's
heaviest rainfall. Some lingering heavy rainfall may be possible in
the Peninsular Range east of San Diego beyond 18Z, but most
rainfall around the L.A. region should be just about over (aside
from lingering upslope into the Transverse Ranges).

Latest HREF guidance does show minor instability present (<250
J/kg on average) between 09-18Z, which may be just enough when
taking into account sensitive soils to result in additional flash
flooding in not just the Transverse Ranges, but also the greater
Los Angeles metro area as well. The new 00Z HREF 24-hour QPF
probabilities for surpassing 3" of rainfall peaks around 50% over
the San Bernadino and low chances (15-25) for localized totals
eclipsing 5". Snow levels remain very high, making just about all
of the expected QPF to be in the form of rain. The lack of higher-
end instability is what is keeping the Slight Risk in place, but
make no mistake-- there remains a heightened risk for flash
flooding this morning in Southern CA with rock slides and debris
flows in/around burn scars possible, including urbanized flash
flooding.

Farther north, most area have recovered a bit better from last
week's significant rainfall, but the copious amounts of moisture
combined with sufficient synopitc-scale forcing aloft and
supportive upslope flow along the Coastal Range and as far inland
as the Sierra Nevada does suggest a Marginal Risk for flash
flooding is still warranted. The 00Z HREF does show a small area
between Santa Maria and Big Sur where MUCAPE >250 J/kg could
materialize between 15-18Z and foster more potent instantaneous
rainfall rates as convection moves through. Still, the line of
showers and thunderstorms would be progressive and keep the flash
flooding potential to a very localized area.

Mullinax

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 02 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA...

An expansive upper level cutoff low over the Pacific well west of
the northern California coast will approach the northern California
coast Friday night. The occluded front wrapping around a surface
low will be the primary forcing for heavy rainfall into northern
California Friday night. The occluded front will turn the flow a
bit more onshore (southeast before the front to south-southwest
behind it). This will allow the coastal ranges to upslope some of
that moisture, locally enhancing rainfall rates, particularly into
the northern Coastal Ranges and the Klamath Mountains. Some heavy
rain may impact the Bay area and the coastal ranges south from
there in the waning couple hours of the period, assuming the timing
of the front moving into the coast remains unchanged. IVT values
between 500 and 750 kg/ms are far from impressive, and moisture
anomalies rise to around 2 sigma above normal, a common occurrence
in this part of the world, especially the past few weeks. Thus,
with the rainfall event just getting going, coming in in the middle
of the night, and with less-than-impressive dynamics, the Marginal
Risk for much of the central and northern California coast remains
largely unchanged with this update, and the Marginal looks on
track.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA...

A series of upper level disturbances rotating around a large upper
level low will impact much of California and the West Coast this
weekend. With each upper level disturbance, there will be a
commensurate surface front that also makes its way ashore into
northern California. The result will be an almost non-stop rain,
especially for upslope areas on southerly flow, as well as for all
of the coastal ranges. That said, each disturbance will briefly
increase rainfall rates, with those rates decreasing back down in
between disturbances. Thus, Saturday's rain looks to be a long-
duration relatively light (for most areas) rain, rather than there
being big concerns on any one area seeing prolonged heavy rain.
Given the area's good ability to drain rainwater quickly, a
Marginal Risk remains in effect for northern California. The area
will continue to be monitored for a possible Slight Risk upgrade
with future updates.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5ohuCikjrKAwZAFRpsatOeIB9cgsRlzzU_30OLjzZccq= oyu_Bb9OjVOeaihELQFY74ilH-zYdxFic9EyYCLWlv8LMxQ$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5ohuCikjrKAwZAFRpsatOeIB9cgsRlzzU_30OLjzZccq= oyu_Bb9OjVOeaihELQFY74ilH-zYdxFic9EyYCLWaDaGg68$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5ohuCikjrKAwZAFRpsatOeIB9cgsRlzzU_30OLjzZccq= oyu_Bb9OjVOeaihELQFY74ilH-zYdxFic9EyYCLWp8TtQ8I$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 011854
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Jan 01 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 02 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...16Z Outlook Update...
Changes to the Slight Risk area in southern California currently
reflect convective trends, with deep convection persisting along
and ahead of a surface cold front over Pacific waters approaching
that area. Mesoanalysis depict a pool of weak surface-based
instability just offshore of San Diego County that has enabled
deeper convection to materialize and repeat/train into portions of
San Diego Metro. This regime, along with persistent orographic lift
against the Transverse and Peninsular coastal ranges, will
continue to support flash flooding in addition to mud/rock slides
and occasional near-stream flooding for at least another 6 hours=20
or so. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward to the=20
international border and trimmed on its westward extent across=20
Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties based on aforementioned trends.=20
The Marginal Risk areas remain in tact as a large upper low=20
approaches the state of California, spreading areas of moderate to=20
heavy rainfall especially across coastal/Sierra front ranges=20
through the evening.

See the previous discussion for additional information.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

A 500mb trough with a small, yet potent, closed circulation will
become part of a negatively tilted 200-500mb upper-trough axis
that is partially responsible for the slug of highly anomalous
moisture that will engulf much of the West today. The focus remains
on Southern California where the Transverse Ranges soils remain
quite sensitive in wake of last week's significant flooding. IVT
values are encroaching upon 500 kg/m/s and embedded within SSWrly
flow that is aligned orthogonally to the Transverse Ranges.
Additional forcing will be located along the frontal boundary that
will trigger additional convection over the East Pacific upon
approach. PWATs are forecast to be just over 1.25" off the Southern
California coast through this morning, but around 18Z, a dryslot
in the 700-300mb layer should result in the conclusion of today's
heaviest rainfall. Some lingering heavy rainfall may be possible in
the Peninsular Range east of San Diego beyond 18Z, but most
rainfall around the L.A. region should be just about over (aside
from lingering upslope into the Transverse Ranges).

Latest HREF guidance does show minor instability present (<250
J/kg on average) between 09-18Z, which may be just enough when
taking into account sensitive soils to result in additional flash
flooding in not just the Transverse Ranges, but also the greater
Los Angeles metro area as well. The new 00Z HREF 24-hour QPF
probabilities for surpassing 3" of rainfall peaks around 50% over
the San Bernadino and low chances (15-25) for localized totals
eclipsing 5". Snow levels remain very high, making just about all
of the expected QPF to be in the form of rain. The lack of higher-
end instability is what is keeping the Slight Risk in place, but
make no mistake-- there remains a heightened risk for flash
flooding this morning in Southern CA with rock slides and debris
flows in/around burn scars possible, including urbanized flash
flooding.

Farther north, most area have recovered a bit better from last
week's significant rainfall, but the copious amounts of moisture
combined with sufficient synopitc-scale forcing aloft and
supportive upslope flow along the Coastal Range and as far inland
as the Sierra Nevada does suggest a Marginal Risk for flash
flooding is still warranted. The 00Z HREF does show a small area
between Santa Maria and Big Sur where MUCAPE >250 J/kg could
materialize between 15-18Z and foster more potent instantaneous
rainfall rates as convection moves through. Still, the line of
showers and thunderstorms would be progressive and keep the flash
flooding potential to a very localized area.

Mullinax

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 02 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA...

...19z Update...
Only minor changes made to the inherited Marginal risk area as the
forecast remains on track.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

An expansive upper level cutoff low over the Pacific well west of
the northern California coast will approach the northern California
coast Friday night. The occluded front wrapping around a surface
low will be the primary forcing for heavy rainfall into northern
California Friday night. The occluded front will turn the flow a
bit more onshore (southeast before the front to south-southwest
behind it). This will allow the coastal ranges to upslope some of
that moisture, locally enhancing rainfall rates, particularly into
the northern Coastal Ranges and the Klamath Mountains. Some heavy
rain may impact the Bay area and the coastal ranges south from
there in the waning couple hours of the period, assuming the timing
of the front moving into the coast remains unchanged. IVT values
between 500 and 750 kg/ms are far from impressive, and moisture
anomalies rise to around 2 sigma above normal, a common occurrence
in this part of the world, especially the past few weeks. Thus,
with the rainfall event just getting going, coming in in the middle
of the night, and with less-than-impressive dynamics, the Marginal
Risk for much of the central and northern California coast remains
largely unchanged with this update, and the Marginal looks on
track.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF=20
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...19z Update...
A Slight risk was added across Santa Barbara and Ventura counties
in southern CA with this update. A line of locally heavy rainfall
rates is expected to traverse this corridor between 12z Sat and=20
00z Sun along/ahead of a cold front. Forecast rainfall amounts have
trended up over this area, with totals of 1-3" now expected,=20
mostly falling in ~6 hours or less. The quick duration will be a=20
limiting factor for more significant flood impacts, but with some=20
weak instability possibly working into the front and low level flow
aligned orthogonal to the terrain...hourly rainfall over 0.5" is=20
probable on a localized basis. Given the saturated soil over this=20
area due to recent heavy rainfall, these rates may be high enough=20
to result in isolated to scattered flash flooding, along with=20
localized mudslides and debris flows.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

A series of upper level disturbances rotating around a large upper
level low will impact much of California and the West Coast this
weekend. With each upper level disturbance, there will be a
commensurate surface front that also makes its way ashore into
northern California. The result will be an almost non-stop rain,
especially for upslope areas on southerly flow, as well as for all
of the coastal ranges. That said, each disturbance will briefly
increase rainfall rates, with those rates decreasing back down in
between disturbances. Thus, Saturday's rain looks to be a long-
duration relatively light (for most areas) rain, rather than there
being big concerns on any one area seeing prolonged heavy rain.
Given the area's good ability to drain rainwater quickly, a
Marginal Risk remains in effect for northern California. The area
will continue to be monitored for a possible Slight Risk upgrade
with future updates.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6y4_a_TH06oiAbb-yRtjtXAQUl24dCQRH8Civv9h_4vA= lNi3VJRcxOjT--jt0lY7b-3yg0smihjU5On6PJAxf1mYTs8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6y4_a_TH06oiAbb-yRtjtXAQUl24dCQRH8Civv9h_4vA= lNi3VJRcxOjT--jt0lY7b-3yg0smihjU5On6PJAxluns0N0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6y4_a_TH06oiAbb-yRtjtXAQUl24dCQRH8Civv9h_4vA= lNi3VJRcxOjT--jt0lY7b-3yg0smihjU5On6PJAxgeRbpdA$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 020021
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
721 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Jan 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 02 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than five percent.

The upper low associated with the heavy rain that fell earlier
across portions of California is now inland, centered over the=20
Sierra Nevada. In its wake, mesoanalysis shows a shortwave ridge=20
moving onshore, which recent runs of the RAP indicate will continue
to build and remain centered over the state through the remainder=20
of the period. Precipitation coverage has been on the decrease=20
across the state for the past few hours and apart from a few=20
isolated showers, estimated rates are under 0.25 in/hr. Isolated to
scattered showers are forecast to continue into the overnight;=20
however, the consensus of the guidance indicates that apart from a=20
few localized areas, most likely centered over the northern=20
Sacramento Valley and adjacent terrain, additional accumulations=20
will be under 0.5 inch.

Therefore, the previous outlook areas, including the Slight Risk
for Southern California, were removed.

Pereira=20

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 02 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA...

...19z Update...
Only minor changes made to the inherited Marginal risk area as the
forecast remains on track.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

An expansive upper level cutoff low over the Pacific well west of
the northern California coast will approach the northern California
coast Friday night. The occluded front wrapping around a surface
low will be the primary forcing for heavy rainfall into northern
California Friday night. The occluded front will turn the flow a
bit more onshore (southeast before the front to south-southwest
behind it). This will allow the coastal ranges to upslope some of
that moisture, locally enhancing rainfall rates, particularly into
the northern Coastal Ranges and the Klamath Mountains. Some heavy
rain may impact the Bay area and the coastal ranges south from
there in the waning couple hours of the period, assuming the timing
of the front moving into the coast remains unchanged. IVT values
between 500 and 750 kg/ms are far from impressive, and moisture
anomalies rise to around 2 sigma above normal, a common occurrence
in this part of the world, especially the past few weeks. Thus,
with the rainfall event just getting going, coming in in the middle
of the night, and with less-than-impressive dynamics, the Marginal
Risk for much of the central and northern California coast remains
largely unchanged with this update, and the Marginal looks on
track.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...19z Update...
A Slight risk was added across Santa Barbara and Ventura counties
in southern CA with this update. A line of locally heavy rainfall
rates is expected to traverse this corridor between 12z Sat and
00z Sun along/ahead of a cold front. Forecast rainfall amounts have
trended up over this area, with totals of 1-3" now expected,
mostly falling in ~6 hours or less. The quick duration will be a
limiting factor for more significant flood impacts, but with some
weak instability possibly working into the front and low level flow
aligned orthogonal to the terrain...hourly rainfall over 0.5" is
probable on a localized basis. Given the saturated soil over this
area due to recent heavy rainfall, these rates may be high enough
to result in isolated to scattered flash flooding, along with
localized mudslides and debris flows.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

A series of upper level disturbances rotating around a large upper
level low will impact much of California and the West Coast this
weekend. With each upper level disturbance, there will be a
commensurate surface front that also makes its way ashore into
northern California. The result will be an almost non-stop rain,
especially for upslope areas on southerly flow, as well as for all
of the coastal ranges. That said, each disturbance will briefly
increase rainfall rates, with those rates decreasing back down in
between disturbances. Thus, Saturday's rain looks to be a long-
duration relatively light (for most areas) rain, rather than there
being big concerns on any one area seeing prolonged heavy rain.
Given the area's good ability to drain rainwater quickly, a
Marginal Risk remains in effect for northern California. The area
will continue to be monitored for a possible Slight Risk upgrade
with future updates.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5_KNE7IHsqIKsygJOqkUHKfgFFDSWefA9o1jt1s4tier= vHlUSO5OYXyC4SYSrxQcVERXoXPlpGwOfZrILjWGV0aS_S8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5_KNE7IHsqIKsygJOqkUHKfgFFDSWefA9o1jt1s4tier= vHlUSO5OYXyC4SYSrxQcVERXoXPlpGwOfZrILjWGK30crP4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5_KNE7IHsqIKsygJOqkUHKfgFFDSWefA9o1jt1s4tier= vHlUSO5OYXyC4SYSrxQcVERXoXPlpGwOfZrILjWGS3dl83I$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 020828
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 02 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

No major model disagreements with the eastward push of the strong
mid to upper level low off the northern California coast day 1. The
low level southerly flow will strengthen Friday along and ahead of
the associated frontal boundary pushing toward the central to
northern California coast. While PW values are only 1 to 1.5
standard deviations above the mean, the 850-700 mb moisture flux
values are more anomalous, 2-3+ standard deviations above the mean.
Precip should increase in intensity along the northern CA coast
after 0000 UTC Sat, and spread south into coastal central CA in the
0600-1200 UTC time frame. The frontal boundary is expected to be
fairly progressive, limiting very heavy rainfall totals. HREF and
RRFS neighborhood probabilities for .50"+ hourly amounts are=20
generally less than 30%, with a few localized 60%+ probabilities=20
along the central CA coast range to the south of Monterey, and=20
across the northern Sierra. Areal average 1 to 1.5" amounts=20
expected along the central to northern CA coast and 1.5-2" in the=20
northern Sierra with isolated heavier totals of 2.5-3"+ possible.=20
No significant changes made to the previous marginal risk, with=20
localized runoff issues possible where soils remain fairly=20
saturated from recent rains, especially across northern CA.=20

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

The axis of anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux values...2 to 4
standard deviations above the mean...along and ahead of the inland
moving frontal boundary at the end of the day 1 period will impact
the upslope areas of the northern Sierra and spread through the=20
Transverse Ranges of Southern California day 2. The primary change=20
from the previous outlook was to add a small slight risk area in=20
the upslope area of the Northern Sierra. HREF neighborhood=20
probabilities for .50"+ hourly rainfall amounts are fairly=20
high...50%+ at the beginning of the day 2 period and again in the=20
2100 UTC Sat to 0000 UTC Sun period. This will result in day 2=20
rainfall totals of 2-4"+ in a region of fairly saturated soils from
recent heavy rains. No changes of note made to the previous slight
risk area over Southern CA in the vicinity of the Transverse=20
Range. The south southwesterly low level flow will have a=20
significant upslope component into the Transverse Ranges during=20
the first half of day 2. This is reflected in both the HREF and=20
RRFS .50"+ hourly probabilities which are high, 50-80%+ during this
period. Localized runoff issues are possible where soils remain=20
fairly saturated from recent heavy rains.=20

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE SIERRA...

Additional shortwave energy expected to rotate through the mean
trof position along the West coast and inland across California day
3. This will support a continued wet showery pattern with=20
additional moderate to locally heavy precip totals along much of=20
the California coast Ranges and into the upslope of the Sierra. A=20
broad marginal risk area was maintained from the previous outlook=20
this period with changes mostly to better fit the latest model and
WPC qpf. The slight risk area over Southern California in the=20
vicinity of the Transverse Range was removed given consensus of=20
additional moderate totals.=20

Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6qGK_rzOvB2ObWzsCoW9b0hamTvc3eTTLJ8qgPwGHzdy= qM7ohG0mtttFSXbdszmiRVjCKYvr5bdlM1RlBaSRc_vy2ys$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6qGK_rzOvB2ObWzsCoW9b0hamTvc3eTTLJ8qgPwGHzdy= qM7ohG0mtttFSXbdszmiRVjCKYvr5bdlM1RlBaSR40ZN9co$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6qGK_rzOvB2ObWzsCoW9b0hamTvc3eTTLJ8qgPwGHzdy= qM7ohG0mtttFSXbdszmiRVjCKYvr5bdlM1RlBaSRp49gFxA$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 021540
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Jan 02 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

1600Z Update...

The 12Z HREF guidance supports no changes to the Marginal Risk area
for the central CA coast northward into northern CA. The offshore
upper trough/front will be moving east later today and tonight and
will bring periods of locally heavy inland. Some localized runoff
issues will be possible overnight and early Saturday morning given
moderate to locally heavy rainfall rates (isolated 0.50+"/hour) and
the moist/wet antecedent conditions.

Orrison

Previous discussion...

No major model disagreements with the eastward push of the strong
mid to upper level low off the northern California coast day 1. The
low level southerly flow will strengthen Friday along and ahead of
the associated frontal boundary pushing toward the central to
northern California coast. While PW values are only 1 to 1.5
standard deviations above the mean, the 850-700 mb moisture flux
values are more anomalous, 2-3+ standard deviations above the mean.
Precip should increase in intensity along the northern CA coast
after 0000 UTC Sat, and spread south into coastal central CA in the
0600-1200 UTC time frame. The frontal boundary is expected to be
fairly progressive, limiting very heavy rainfall totals. HREF and
RRFS neighborhood probabilities for .50"+ hourly amounts are
generally less than 30%, with a few localized 60%+ probabilities
along the central CA coast range to the south of Monterey, and
across the northern Sierra. Areal average 1 to 1.5" amounts
expected along the central to northern CA coast and 1.5-2" in the
northern Sierra with isolated heavier totals of 2.5-3"+ possible.
No significant changes made to the previous marginal risk, with
localized runoff issues possible where soils remain fairly
saturated from recent rains, especially across northern CA.

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

The axis of anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux values...2 to 4
standard deviations above the mean...along and ahead of the inland
moving frontal boundary at the end of the day 1 period will impact
the upslope areas of the northern Sierra and spread through the
Transverse Ranges of Southern California day 2. The primary change
from the previous outlook was to add a small slight risk area in
the upslope area of the Northern Sierra. HREF neighborhood
probabilities for .50"+ hourly rainfall amounts are fairly
high...50%+ at the beginning of the day 2 period and again in the
2100 UTC Sat to 0000 UTC Sun period. This will result in day 2
rainfall totals of 2-4"+ in a region of fairly saturated soils from
recent heavy rains. No changes of note made to the previous slight
risk area over Southern CA in the vicinity of the Transverse
Range. The south southwesterly low level flow will have a
significant upslope component into the Transverse Ranges during
the first half of day 2. This is reflected in both the HREF and
RRFS .50"+ hourly probabilities which are high, 50-80%+ during this
period. Localized runoff issues are possible where soils remain
fairly saturated from recent heavy rains.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE SIERRA...

Additional shortwave energy expected to rotate through the mean
trof position along the West coast and inland across California day
3. This will support a continued wet showery pattern with
additional moderate to locally heavy precip totals along much of
the California coast Ranges and into the upslope of the Sierra. A
broad marginal risk area was maintained from the previous outlook
this period with changes mostly to better fit the latest model and
WPC qpf. The slight risk area over Southern California in the
vicinity of the Transverse Range was removed given consensus of
additional moderate totals.

Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4lVPWWp_4teEnMjcnL_fox4uZ3emV2G5qfMV24sCvF-h= V7cSYiZz_sZDgS1dAEFlTHB7QbVp7J3TXF-YkSJgP0dEAGE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4lVPWWp_4teEnMjcnL_fox4uZ3emV2G5qfMV24sCvF-h= V7cSYiZz_sZDgS1dAEFlTHB7QbVp7J3TXF-YkSJgbOw5q28$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4lVPWWp_4teEnMjcnL_fox4uZ3emV2G5qfMV24sCvF-h= V7cSYiZz_sZDgS1dAEFlTHB7QbVp7J3TXF-YkSJgzVqqUkk$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 021853
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
153 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Jan 02 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

1600Z Update...

The 12Z HREF guidance supports no changes to the Marginal Risk area
for the central CA coast northward into northern CA. The offshore
upper trough/front will be moving east later today and tonight and
will bring periods of locally heavy inland. Some localized runoff
issues will be possible overnight and early Saturday morning given
moderate to locally heavy rainfall rates (isolated 0.50+"/hour) and
the moist/wet antecedent conditions.

Orrison

Previous discussion...

No major model disagreements with the eastward push of the strong
mid to upper level low off the northern California coast day 1. The
low level southerly flow will strengthen Friday along and ahead of
the associated frontal boundary pushing toward the central to
northern California coast. While PW values are only 1 to 1.5
standard deviations above the mean, the 850-700 mb moisture flux
values are more anomalous, 2-3+ standard deviations above the mean.
Precip should increase in intensity along the northern CA coast
after 0000 UTC Sat, and spread south into coastal central CA in the
0600-1200 UTC time frame. The frontal boundary is expected to be
fairly progressive, limiting very heavy rainfall totals. HREF and
RRFS neighborhood probabilities for .50"+ hourly amounts are
generally less than 30%, with a few localized 60%+ probabilities
along the central CA coast range to the south of Monterey, and
across the northern Sierra. Areal average 1 to 1.5" amounts
expected along the central to northern CA coast and 1.5-2" in the
northern Sierra with isolated heavier totals of 2.5-3"+ possible.
No significant changes made to the previous marginal risk, with
localized runoff issues possible where soils remain fairly
saturated from recent rains, especially across northern CA.

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

19z Update: Only minor changes made with this update. The 12z high
res models continue to depict a band of heavy rainfall moving
southward across the Transverse Range between 12z Sat and 00z Sun.
Most high res members depict localized hourly rainfall upwards of=20
0.5"-1", which should be enough to result in isolated to scattered=20
flash flooding.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

The axis of anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux values...2 to 4
standard deviations above the mean...along and ahead of the inland
moving frontal boundary at the end of the day 1 period will impact
the upslope areas of the northern Sierra and spread through the
Transverse Ranges of Southern California day 2. The primary change
from the previous outlook was to add a small slight risk area in
the upslope area of the Northern Sierra. HREF neighborhood
probabilities for .50"+ hourly rainfall amounts are fairly
high...50%+ at the beginning of the day 2 period and again in the
2100 UTC Sat to 0000 UTC Sun period. This will result in day 2
rainfall totals of 2-4"+ in a region of fairly saturated soils from
recent heavy rains. No changes of note made to the previous slight
risk area over Southern CA in the vicinity of the Transverse
Range. The south southwesterly low level flow will have a
significant upslope component into the Transverse Ranges during
the first half of day 2. This is reflected in both the HREF and
RRFS .50"+ hourly probabilities which are high, 50-80%+ during this
period. Localized runoff issues are possible where soils remain
fairly saturated from recent heavy rains.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE SIERRA...

19z Update: Minimal changes needed to the inherited Marginal risk.
Gave some consideration to carrying over the the day 2 Northern
Sierra Slight risk into day 3 as periods of heavy rainfall will=20
continue into Sunday. However, snow levels will drop a bit and=20
thus at this point any Slight risk area would probably be too=20
narrow to depict. Either way, some flood impacts are likely to
continue into Sunday across the Marginal risk area.

Chenard


...Previous Discussion...

Additional shortwave energy expected to rotate through the mean
trof position along the West coast and inland across California day
3. This will support a continued wet showery pattern with
additional moderate to locally heavy precip totals along much of
the California coast Ranges and into the upslope of the Sierra. A
broad marginal risk area was maintained from the previous outlook
this period with changes mostly to better fit the latest model and
WPC qpf. The slight risk area over Southern California in the
vicinity of the Transverse Range was removed given consensus of
additional moderate totals.

Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9VAYsByboeurv6SNg0TWrQf5--QeuM_yTmurttWWvv-i= VvGyfcVSO6U---asf1mZDMFSOAOsIG-tG8GsUbra0A-_EO8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9VAYsByboeurv6SNg0TWrQf5--QeuM_yTmurttWWvv-i= VvGyfcVSO6U---asf1mZDMFSOAOsIG-tG8GsUbrapZpU330$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9VAYsByboeurv6SNg0TWrQf5--QeuM_yTmurttWWvv-i= VvGyfcVSO6U---asf1mZDMFSOAOsIG-tG8GsUbraYn_6wA4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 030014
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

01Z Update...
The 18Z HREF guidance supports the idea that few changes...if=20
any...are needed to the Marginal Risk area for the central=20
California coast northward. The upper trough/front...shown by=20
satellite imagery to still be offshore this evening...has gotten=20
close enough to bring the first showers to northern California.=20
Increasing coverage of rainfall and an increase in rainfall rates=20
is expcted this evening and tonight as the trough/front continues=20
moving eastward. Some localized runoff issues will be possible=20
overnight and early Saturday morning given moderate to locally=20
heavy rainfall rates (isolated 0.50+"/hour) and the moist/wet=20
antecedent conditions.

Bann

0830Z Excessive Rainfall Discussion...

No major model disagreements with the eastward push of the strong
mid to upper level low off the northern California coast day 1. The
low level southerly flow will strengthen Friday along and ahead of
the associated frontal boundary pushing toward the central to
northern California coast. While PW values are only 1 to 1.5
standard deviations above the mean, the 850-700 mb moisture flux
values are more anomalous, 2-3+ standard deviations above the mean.
Precip should increase in intensity along the northern CA coast
after 0000 UTC Sat, and spread south into coastal central CA in the
0600-1200 UTC time frame. The frontal boundary is expected to be
fairly progressive, limiting very heavy rainfall totals. HREF and
RRFS neighborhood probabilities for .50"+ hourly amounts are
generally less than 30%, with a few localized 60%+ probabilities
along the central CA coast range to the south of Monterey, and
across the northern Sierra. Areal average 1 to 1.5" amounts
expected along the central to northern CA coast and 1.5-2" in the
northern Sierra with isolated heavier totals of 2.5-3"+ possible.
No significant changes made to the previous marginal risk, with
localized runoff issues possible where soils remain fairly
saturated from recent rains, especially across northern CA.

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

19z Update: Only minor changes made with this update. The 12z high
res models continue to depict a band of heavy rainfall moving
southward across the Transverse Range between 12z Sat and 00z Sun.
Most high res members depict localized hourly rainfall upwards of
0.5"-1", which should be enough to result in isolated to scattered
flash flooding.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

The axis of anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux values...2 to 4
standard deviations above the mean...along and ahead of the inland
moving frontal boundary at the end of the day 1 period will impact
the upslope areas of the northern Sierra and spread through the
Transverse Ranges of Southern California day 2. The primary change
from the previous outlook was to add a small slight risk area in
the upslope area of the Northern Sierra. HREF neighborhood
probabilities for .50"+ hourly rainfall amounts are fairly
high...50%+ at the beginning of the day 2 period and again in the
2100 UTC Sat to 0000 UTC Sun period. This will result in day 2
rainfall totals of 2-4"+ in a region of fairly saturated soils from
recent heavy rains. No changes of note made to the previous slight
risk area over Southern CA in the vicinity of the Transverse
Range. The south southwesterly low level flow will have a
significant upslope component into the Transverse Ranges during
the first half of day 2. This is reflected in both the HREF and
RRFS .50"+ hourly probabilities which are high, 50-80%+ during this
period. Localized runoff issues are possible where soils remain
fairly saturated from recent heavy rains.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE SIERRA...

19z Update: Minimal changes needed to the inherited Marginal risk.
Gave some consideration to carrying over the the day 2 Northern
Sierra Slight risk into day 3 as periods of heavy rainfall will
continue into Sunday. However, snow levels will drop a bit and
thus at this point any Slight risk area would probably be too
narrow to depict. Either way, some flood impacts are likely to
continue into Sunday across the Marginal risk area.

Chenard


...Previous Discussion...

Additional shortwave energy expected to rotate through the mean
trof position along the West coast and inland across California day
3. This will support a continued wet showery pattern with
additional moderate to locally heavy precip totals along much of
the California coast Ranges and into the upslope of the Sierra. A
broad marginal risk area was maintained from the previous outlook
this period with changes mostly to better fit the latest model and
WPC qpf. The slight risk area over Southern California in the
vicinity of the Transverse Range was removed given consensus of
additional moderate totals.

Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5XWAwUi0fX0E08WMH2RIOHdQX8Lb6ceyz5epGnzUWH26= w83e98hsTspnXECeQSomkvpdYUbkGzvjg9GKD_9T6exHWRA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5XWAwUi0fX0E08WMH2RIOHdQX8Lb6ceyz5epGnzUWH26= w83e98hsTspnXECeQSomkvpdYUbkGzvjg9GKD_9TpBJ4hNM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5XWAwUi0fX0E08WMH2RIOHdQX8Lb6ceyz5epGnzUWH26= w83e98hsTspnXECeQSomkvpdYUbkGzvjg9GKD_9TQmDnnCg$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 030823
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE SIERRA AND THE SHASTA OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

The axis of anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux values...2 to 4+
standard deviations above the mean...along and ahead of the inland
moving frontal boundary early Saturday will impact the upslope=20
areas of the Sierra, northward into the Shasta of northern
California and spread through the Transverse Ranges of Southern=20
California. The primary change from the previous outlook was to
expand the slight risk area along all of the upslope regions of the
Sierra and expand it northward into the upslope of the northern CA
Shasta Range. HREF and RRFS neighborhood probabilities are high in
the slight risk area along the Sierra into the Shasta for 1, 2 and
3"+ totals and high along the Transverse Range for 1 and 2"+=20
totals day 1. In the slight risk area along the Sierra and Shasta,
hourly rainfall totals of .25-.50"+ are possible through the day 1
period and along the Transverse Range primarily during the first=20
half of day 1. This is resulting in HREF and RRFS probabilities of 3
hour precip exceeding 3 hour FFG values being well defined in the
upslope area of the Sierra and Shasta through day 1 and over the
Transverse Range during the fist half of day 1. Soils remain fairly
saturated in the slight risk areas from recent heavy rains at the
end of 2025 with runoff issues possible as additional heavy
rainfall occurs over these saturated soils.


Oravec

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA...

Additional shortwave energy expected to rotate through the mean
trof position along the West coast and inland across California day
2. This will support a continued wet showery pattern with=20
additional moderate to locally heavy precip totals along much of=20
the California coast Ranges and into the upslope of the Sierra. A
small slight risk area was introduced in the upslope of the northern
Sierra where model consensus is for potential of additional 1 to 2"
of rain. While rainfall rates are expected to be less than day 1,
generally .10-.25, there will be overlap with the day 1 qpf axis in
places with 48 hour totals of 3-6" in the slight risk area. Much=20
of the day 2 precip will occur during the first half of day 2. HREF
and RRFS 12 hour precip ending 0000 UTC Mon are high for 1 and 2"+
totals. Otherwise, no changes made to the broad marginal risk area
for much of coastal and northern California.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

The mean trof position is maintained day 3 off the West coast with
model consensus for amplification of a new closed low in the base
of the mean trof off the Central to Southern CA coast. The low=20
level southerly flow on the east side of this developing closed low
will not be as strong as the day 1 and 2 low level south=20
southwesterly flow, resulting in 850-700 mb moisture flux values=20
only 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above the mean. PW values also=20
expected to be lower than day 1 and 2, with anomalies only 1 to=20
1.5 standard deviations above the mean. Model consensus is for=20
additional .50-1"+ rainfall amounts along the Central to Northern=20
CA coast and into the upslope of the Northern Sierra. At the=20
moment, these amounts warrant keeping the Excessive Rainfall=20
Outlook threat level at marginal for the day 3 period, with no=20
significant changes made to the previous outlook.

Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!__ygkjPnOmbCloOq5IUua_YtA9w-fwTU_lGiOgnGx8cK= fQanmwSXqHmc5xGZ-D9APdL5ggaqvsCHaFGODZKDsUJsiWU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!__ygkjPnOmbCloOq5IUua_YtA9w-fwTU_lGiOgnGx8cK= fQanmwSXqHmc5xGZ-D9APdL5ggaqvsCHaFGODZKDTqJDpTE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!__ygkjPnOmbCloOq5IUua_YtA9w-fwTU_lGiOgnGx8cK= fQanmwSXqHmc5xGZ-D9APdL5ggaqvsCHaFGODZKDnMl4yR8$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 031551
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1051 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SIERRA AND=20
THE SHASTA OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

16z Update: Only minor changes needed to the inherited risk areas.
Rainfall rates over portions of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
are expected to increase this morning resulting in an isolated to
scattered flash flood risk. Mudslides and debris flows will also=20
be a possibility. Recent satellite imagery depicts cooling cloud=20
tops moving into this portion of southern CA. Rainfall as high as=20
0.75" in an hour is already occurring on a localized basis, with=20
recent HRRR runs supporting amounts locally exceeding 1" in an hour
between now and 22z as this axis of heavier rain gradually shifts=20
southward. Given observational and model trends it seems probable=20
that rates will continue to increase as embedded convective=20
elements develop just onshore. Current indications are that this=20
area of heavier rainfall rates will weaken as it moves into Las=20
Angeles County, although 0.5"/hr rainfall will still be possible=20
here.

Convective elements may also increase across portions of central=20
and northern CA as we head into the afternoon resulting in a=20
localized flash flood risk. The coverage of these higher rates=20
should be pretty low, so not looking at a widespread flash flood=20
risk. But if/where heavier convective cells do develop then urban=20
and small stream flooding will be possible.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

The axis of anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux values...2 to 4+
standard deviations above the mean...along and ahead of the inland
moving frontal boundary early Saturday will impact the upslope
areas of the Sierra, northward into the Shasta of northern
California and spread through the Transverse Ranges of Southern
California. The primary change from the previous outlook was to
expand the slight risk area along all of the upslope regions of the
Sierra and expand it northward into the upslope of the northern CA
Shasta Range. HREF and RRFS neighborhood probabilities are high in
the slight risk area along the Sierra into the Shasta for 1, 2 and
3"+ totals and high along the Transverse Range for 1 and 2"+
totals day 1. In the slight risk area along the Sierra and Shasta,
hourly rainfall totals of .25-.50"+ are possible through the day 1
period and along the Transverse Range primarily during the first
half of day 1. This is resulting in HREF and RRFS probabilities of 3
hour precip exceeding 3 hour FFG values being well defined in the
upslope area of the Sierra and Shasta through day 1 and over the
Transverse Range during the fist half of day 1. Soils remain fairly
saturated in the slight risk areas from recent heavy rains at the
end of 2025 with runoff issues possible as additional heavy
rainfall occurs over these saturated soils.


Oravec

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA...

Additional shortwave energy expected to rotate through the mean
trof position along the West coast and inland across California day
2. This will support a continued wet showery pattern with
additional moderate to locally heavy precip totals along much of
the California coast Ranges and into the upslope of the Sierra. A
small slight risk area was introduced in the upslope of the northern
Sierra where model consensus is for potential of additional 1 to 2"
of rain. While rainfall rates are expected to be less than day 1,
generally .10-.25, there will be overlap with the day 1 qpf axis in
places with 48 hour totals of 3-6" in the slight risk area. Much
of the day 2 precip will occur during the first half of day 2. HREF
and RRFS 12 hour precip ending 0000 UTC Mon are high for 1 and 2"+
totals. Otherwise, no changes made to the broad marginal risk area
for much of coastal and northern California.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

The mean trof position is maintained day 3 off the West coast with
model consensus for amplification of a new closed low in the base
of the mean trof off the Central to Southern CA coast. The low
level southerly flow on the east side of this developing closed low
will not be as strong as the day 1 and 2 low level south
southwesterly flow, resulting in 850-700 mb moisture flux values
only 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above the mean. PW values also
expected to be lower than day 1 and 2, with anomalies only 1 to
1.5 standard deviations above the mean. Model consensus is for
additional .50-1"+ rainfall amounts along the Central to Northern
CA coast and into the upslope of the Northern Sierra. At the
moment, these amounts warrant keeping the Excessive Rainfall
Outlook threat level at marginal for the day 3 period, with no
significant changes made to the previous outlook.

Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5PWWpbnkl9pgbgqnfuy7Yi85OYfOcThdZjuLWD8i9kaX= 10743uN3ty7V_cQA5gmJ-rqU5cQMaFCHZVdrFpAl0Gs7Xc0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5PWWpbnkl9pgbgqnfuy7Yi85OYfOcThdZjuLWD8i9kaX= 10743uN3ty7V_cQA5gmJ-rqU5cQMaFCHZVdrFpAl9MVQQY8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5PWWpbnkl9pgbgqnfuy7Yi85OYfOcThdZjuLWD8i9kaX= 10743uN3ty7V_cQA5gmJ-rqU5cQMaFCHZVdrFpAltRh4a58$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 031952
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Jan 03 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SIERRA AND
THE SHASTA OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

16z Update: Only minor changes needed to the inherited risk areas.
Rainfall rates over portions of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
are expected to increase this morning resulting in an isolated to
scattered flash flood risk. Mudslides and debris flows will also
be a possibility. Recent satellite imagery depicts cooling cloud
tops moving into this portion of southern CA. Rainfall as high as
0.75" in an hour is already occurring on a localized basis, with
recent HRRR runs supporting amounts locally exceeding 1" in an hour
between now and 22z as this axis of heavier rain gradually shifts
southward. Given observational and model trends it seems probable
that rates will continue to increase as embedded convective
elements develop just onshore. Current indications are that this
area of heavier rainfall rates will weaken as it moves into Las
Angeles County, although 0.5"/hr rainfall will still be possible
here.

Convective elements may also increase across portions of central
and northern CA as we head into the afternoon resulting in a
localized flash flood risk. The coverage of these higher rates
should be pretty low, so not looking at a widespread flash flood
risk. But if/where heavier convective cells do develop then urban
and small stream flooding will be possible.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

The axis of anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux values...2 to 4+
standard deviations above the mean...along and ahead of the inland
moving frontal boundary early Saturday will impact the upslope
areas of the Sierra, northward into the Shasta of northern
California and spread through the Transverse Ranges of Southern
California. The primary change from the previous outlook was to
expand the slight risk area along all of the upslope regions of the
Sierra and expand it northward into the upslope of the northern CA
Shasta Range. HREF and RRFS neighborhood probabilities are high in
the slight risk area along the Sierra into the Shasta for 1, 2 and
3"+ totals and high along the Transverse Range for 1 and 2"+
totals day 1. In the slight risk area along the Sierra and Shasta,
hourly rainfall totals of .25-.50"+ are possible through the day 1
period and along the Transverse Range primarily during the first
half of day 1. This is resulting in HREF and RRFS probabilities of 3
hour precip exceeding 3 hour FFG values being well defined in the
upslope area of the Sierra and Shasta through day 1 and over the
Transverse Range during the fist half of day 1. Soils remain fairly
saturated in the slight risk areas from recent heavy rains at the
end of 2025 with runoff issues possible as additional heavy
rainfall occurs over these saturated soils.


Oravec

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA...

19z Update: Forecast generally looks on track. Higher rainfall
rates will be possible Sunday morning from Santa Cruz into=20
Monterey counties as a cold front drops southward supporting some=20
embedded convection. Hourly rainfall should exceed 0.5", and=20
possibly approach 1" on a localized basis...which should be enough=20
for an isolated flash flood/mudslide risk.

Rainfall will continue into the central/northern Sierra as well,=20
with briefly heavier rates also possible here during the morning as
the front drops south. This risk combined with the saturated soil=20
conditions continues to warrant the Slight risk over this region.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...=20

Additional shortwave energy expected to rotate through the mean
trof position along the West coast and inland across California day
2. This will support a continued wet showery pattern with
additional moderate to locally heavy precip totals along much of
the California coast Ranges and into the upslope of the Sierra. A
small slight risk area was introduced in the upslope of the northern
Sierra where model consensus is for potential of additional 1 to 2"
of rain. While rainfall rates are expected to be less than day 1,
generally .10-.25, there will be overlap with the day 1 qpf axis in
places with 48 hour totals of 3-6" in the slight risk area. Much
of the day 2 precip will occur during the first half of day 2. HREF
and RRFS 12 hour precip ending 0000 UTC Mon are high for 1 and 2"+
totals. Otherwise, no changes made to the broad marginal risk area
for much of coastal and northern California.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

19z Update: Model QPF is trending up across portions of central
and/or northern CA this period as a closed low develops off the=20
coast. As these closed low develop you often see the=20
front/convergence axis briefly stall, which could allow for a=20
period of more persistent moderate to heavy rainfall. Still some=20
uncertainty on these details, and so we will stick with a Marginal
risk for now. But will need to continue to monitor trends, as=20
given saturated soil conditions over some of this region, a future
Slight risk upgrade can not be ruled out.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

The mean trof position is maintained day 3 off the West coast with
model consensus for amplification of a new closed low in the base
of the mean trof off the Central to Southern CA coast. The low
level southerly flow on the east side of this developing closed low
will not be as strong as the day 1 and 2 low level south
southwesterly flow, resulting in 850-700 mb moisture flux values
only 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above the mean. PW values also
expected to be lower than day 1 and 2, with anomalies only 1 to
1.5 standard deviations above the mean. Model consensus is for
additional .50-1"+ rainfall amounts along the Central to Northern
CA coast and into the upslope of the Northern Sierra. At the
moment, these amounts warrant keeping the Excessive Rainfall
Outlook threat level at marginal for the day 3 period, with no
significant changes made to the previous outlook.

Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!95hKGCblOpLV8Dlwhp7s4j6ZgHogdryf8cRonjxRT-Hw= fQkouqpNWbeFJpQTf0WsdYcaRc2WgA-FHZZ-bmMABQMUNIs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!95hKGCblOpLV8Dlwhp7s4j6ZgHogdryf8cRonjxRT-Hw= fQkouqpNWbeFJpQTf0WsdYcaRc2WgA-FHZZ-bmMA4JA714U$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!95hKGCblOpLV8Dlwhp7s4j6ZgHogdryf8cRonjxRT-Hw= fQkouqpNWbeFJpQTf0WsdYcaRc2WgA-FHZZ-bmMANoJ6Oew$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 040056
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SIERRA AND THE SHASTA OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

01Z Update...
Short term radar and satellite imagery as of mid-afternoon showed a
decreasing trend in coverage and rainfall across the southern
portion of California. There was still enough forcing to warrant a
Marginal risk area along and ahead of the low level
forcing...especially if enough instability formed to enhance
rainfall rates for a period. The 18Z HREF and latest HRRR develop
little precipitation this evening or overnight so a focused
Marginal risk area seemed okay. Farther north...opted to maintain
the Slight Risk area in the upslope region of the Sierra and=20
Shasta ranges of northern California within a broader Marginal=20
risk area. That region will continue to receive=20
rainfall with the HREF dropping an additional 1 to 1.5 inches=20
overnight (highest amounts in the upslope areas). That rainfall=20
will be on top of what fell earlier today/Saturday. Rainfall in=20
this part of the state is expected to continue beyond the end of=20
the Day 1 period at 04/12Z.


16z Update: Only minor changes needed to the=20
inherited risk areas. Rainfall rates over portions of Santa Barbara
and Ventura Counties are expected to increase this morning=20
resulting in an isolated to scattered flash flood risk. Mudslides=20
and debris flows will also be a possibility. Recent satellite=20
imagery depicts cooling cloud tops moving into this portion of=20
southern CA. Rainfall as high as 0.75" in an hour is already=20
occurring on a localized basis, with recent HRRR runs supporting=20
amounts locally exceeding 1" in an hour between now and 22z as this
axis of heavier rain gradually shifts southward. Given=20
observational and model trends it seems probable that rates will=20
continue to increase as embedded convective elements develop just=20
onshore. Current indications are that this area of heavier rainfall
rates will weaken as it moves into Las Angeles County, although=20
0.5"/hr rainfall will still be possible here.

Convective elements may also increase across portions of central
and northern CA as we head into the afternoon resulting in a
localized flash flood risk. The coverage of these higher rates
should be pretty low, so not looking at a widespread flash flood
risk. But if/where heavier convective cells do develop then urban
and small stream flooding will be possible.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

The axis of anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux values...2 to 4+
standard deviations above the mean...along and ahead of the inland
moving frontal boundary early Saturday will impact the upslope
areas of the Sierra, northward into the Shasta of northern
California and spread through the Transverse Ranges of Southern
California. The primary change from the previous outlook was to
expand the slight risk area along all of the upslope regions of the
Sierra and expand it northward into the upslope of the northern CA
Shasta Range. HREF and RRFS neighborhood probabilities are high in
the slight risk area along the Sierra into the Shasta for 1, 2 and
3"+ totals and high along the Transverse Range for 1 and 2"+
totals day 1. In the slight risk area along the Sierra and Shasta,
hourly rainfall totals of .25-.50"+ are possible through the day 1
period and along the Transverse Range primarily during the first
half of day 1. This is resulting in HREF and RRFS probabilities of 3
hour precip exceeding 3 hour FFG values being well defined in the
upslope area of the Sierra and Shasta through day 1 and over the
Transverse Range during the fist half of day 1. Soils remain fairly
saturated in the slight risk areas from recent heavy rains at the
end of 2025 with runoff issues possible as additional heavy
rainfall occurs over these saturated soils.


Oravec

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA...

19z Update: Forecast generally looks on track. Higher rainfall
rates will be possible Sunday morning from Santa Cruz into
Monterey counties as a cold front drops southward supporting some
embedded convection. Hourly rainfall should exceed 0.5", and
possibly approach 1" on a localized basis...which should be enough
for an isolated flash flood/mudslide risk.

Rainfall will continue into the central/northern Sierra as well,
with briefly heavier rates also possible here during the morning as
the front drops south. This risk combined with the saturated soil
conditions continues to warrant the Slight risk over this region.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

Additional shortwave energy expected to rotate through the mean
trof position along the West coast and inland across California day
2. This will support a continued wet showery pattern with
additional moderate to locally heavy precip totals along much of
the California coast Ranges and into the upslope of the Sierra. A
small slight risk area was introduced in the upslope of the northern
Sierra where model consensus is for potential of additional 1 to 2"
of rain. While rainfall rates are expected to be less than day 1,
generally .10-.25, there will be overlap with the day 1 qpf axis in
places with 48 hour totals of 3-6" in the slight risk area. Much
of the day 2 precip will occur during the first half of day 2. HREF
and RRFS 12 hour precip ending 0000 UTC Mon are high for 1 and 2"+
totals. Otherwise, no changes made to the broad marginal risk area
for much of coastal and northern California.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

19z Update: Model QPF is trending up across portions of central
and/or northern CA this period as a closed low develops off the
coast. As these closed low develop you often see the
front/convergence axis briefly stall, which could allow for a
period of more persistent moderate to heavy rainfall. Still some
uncertainty on these details, and so we will stick with a Marginal
risk for now. But will need to continue to monitor trends, as
given saturated soil conditions over some of this region, a future
Slight risk upgrade can not be ruled out.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

The mean trof position is maintained day 3 off the West coast with
model consensus for amplification of a new closed low in the base
of the mean trof off the Central to Southern CA coast. The low
level southerly flow on the east side of this developing closed low
will not be as strong as the day 1 and 2 low level south
southwesterly flow, resulting in 850-700 mb moisture flux values
only 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above the mean. PW values also
expected to be lower than day 1 and 2, with anomalies only 1 to
1.5 standard deviations above the mean. Model consensus is for
additional .50-1"+ rainfall amounts along the Central to Northern
CA coast and into the upslope of the Northern Sierra. At the
moment, these amounts warrant keeping the Excessive Rainfall
Outlook threat level at marginal for the day 3 period, with no
significant changes made to the previous outlook.

Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7346n75i2RDcEy0_dyTupWCDnCctF9DB5MjGEYtWYp6H= GmWSxBxU9iIu_aElNLUk8Kou0Lv_Q1mHzWaOiVO5em-kyWA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7346n75i2RDcEy0_dyTupWCDnCctF9DB5MjGEYtWYp6H= GmWSxBxU9iIu_aElNLUk8Kou0Lv_Q1mHzWaOiVO5oI1nJdY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7346n75i2RDcEy0_dyTupWCDnCctF9DB5MjGEYtWYp6H= GmWSxBxU9iIu_aElNLUk8Kou0Lv_Q1mHzWaOiVO538BG0_E$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 040830
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA...

Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage and intensity
Sunday morning across northern to central California as the next
batch of shortwave energy rotates through the mean west coast trof
and inland across central CA. PW values and 850-700 mb moisture
flux are expected to increase Sunday associated with this next
batch of shortwave energy. This will support locally heavy precip=20
totals along much of the California coast Ranges and into the=20
upslope of the Sierra. Hourly rainfall rates in the .25-.50" range
possible along the central CA coast and into the upslope of the=20
northern Sierra. A small slight risk area was maintained in the=20
upslope of the northern Sierra where model consensus is for=20
potential of additional 1 to 2" of rain. The HREF probabilities of=20
3 hr precip exceeding 3 hr FFG values shows an area of 15-30%=20
probabilities sinking southward along the upslope of the northern=20
Sierra Sunday where the slight risk area is drawn. Overall, no=20
changes of note made to the previous outlook for the upcoming day 1
period.


Oravec

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...


There are large scale differences developing day 2 with the
amplification of a closed low in the base of the mean trof off the
Central to Southern CA coast. The NAM and GFS are showing a more
southwest solution compared to the EC, CMC and UKMET. This farther
southwest solution is resulting in a trend of less precip along=20
the central CA coast to the south of San Francisco and into the
Northern Sierra in the GFS and NAM as the low level flow has a
much weaker onshore component compared to the EC, CMC and UKMET.=20
Models often struggle with closed formation downstream of=20
flattening upper ridges with overall low confidence at the moment.
The latest WPC qpf did trend towards less precip across the central
CA Coast Range and over the Northern Sierra, but not as dry as the
GFS and NAM. Subsequently, the previous marginal risk area was
decreased in size. There may be additional changes needed to the
risk area with future model cycles, depending how the evolution of
the closing off mid to upper level center evolves.=20=20

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

...THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
LESS THAN 5 Percent...

Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8mdlQ6Il-CroIS5Ass09nzhnMQs-r4IorTFtYaCBOrhZ= _ALmEFbAEu6-IoGfRlTCViCccYl00L7c3K_1TGV2cdLDEAE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8mdlQ6Il-CroIS5Ass09nzhnMQs-r4IorTFtYaCBOrhZ= _ALmEFbAEu6-IoGfRlTCViCccYl00L7c3K_1TGV2YKunWD8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8mdlQ6Il-CroIS5Ass09nzhnMQs-r4IorTFtYaCBOrhZ= _ALmEFbAEu6-IoGfRlTCViCccYl00L7c3K_1TGV2GOxX1No$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 041555
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS...

16z Update: Locally heavy rainfall rates into coastal Monterey=20
County will continue to result in an isolated flash flood and=20
mudslide risk through ~00z. Hourly rainfall between 0.5"-1" will=20
continue to locally occur, with a slow southward shift expected in
these heavier rainfall rates through the day. Rainfall totals of=20
2-4" are expected along the coastal portion of Monterey County.

Another focus for heavy rainfall will be across the eastern valley
into the foothills of the central Sierra. Southerly flow up the
valley, combined with westerly flow behind an approaching cold=20
front, will locally enhance convergence and support some periodic=20
low topped convection capable of rainfall rates over 0.5"/hr. The=20 combination of upslope enhanced rainfall and these locally higher=20
rates will result in a continued isolated to scattered flash flood=20
risk through today.

Showers into southern CA through today may periodically drop ~0.5"
of rain within an hour...but the coverage and magnitude of rainfall
is not expected to match what occurred yesterday over Santa=20
Barbara and Ventura counties. By tonight the approaching cold=20
front should increase shower coverage, but again hourly rainfall=20
should generally peak around 0.5" or less. HREF FFG exceedance=20
probabilities stay below 15%, and while there is a risk of=20
isolated flash flooding and mudslides, the magnitude of the threat
is lower than yesterday and also mainly focused farther south.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage and intensity
Sunday morning across northern to central California as the next
batch of shortwave energy rotates through the mean west coast trof
and inland across central CA. PW values and 850-700 mb moisture
flux are expected to increase Sunday associated with this next
batch of shortwave energy. This will support locally heavy precip
totals along much of the California coast Ranges and into the
upslope of the Sierra. Hourly rainfall rates in the .25-.50" range
possible along the central CA coast and into the upslope of the
northern Sierra. A small slight risk area was maintained in the
upslope of the northern Sierra where model consensus is for
potential of additional 1 to 2" of rain. The HREF probabilities of
3 hr precip exceeding 3 hr FFG values shows an area of 15-30%
probabilities sinking southward along the upslope of the northern
Sierra Sunday where the slight risk area is drawn. Overall, no
changes of note made to the previous outlook for the upcoming day 1
period.


Oravec

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...


There are large scale differences developing day 2 with the
amplification of a closed low in the base of the mean trof off the
Central to Southern CA coast. The NAM and GFS are showing a more
southwest solution compared to the EC, CMC and UKMET. This farther
southwest solution is resulting in a trend of less precip along
the central CA coast to the south of San Francisco and into the
Northern Sierra in the GFS and NAM as the low level flow has a
much weaker onshore component compared to the EC, CMC and UKMET.
Models often struggle with closed formation downstream of
flattening upper ridges with overall low confidence at the moment.
The latest WPC qpf did trend towards less precip across the central
CA Coast Range and over the Northern Sierra, but not as dry as the
GFS and NAM. Subsequently, the previous marginal risk area was
decreased in size. There may be additional changes needed to the
risk area with future model cycles, depending how the evolution of
the closing off mid to upper level center evolves.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

...THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
LESS THAN 5 Percent...

Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!80-i9LrAmC3Ks04SpFjmLuL2qFTiJpJSKJU2Qq8T26O7= JXVWNReT2EAIJNXnBsc07wVqNNtPL46TzoEGBVxqvIh4PEI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!80-i9LrAmC3Ks04SpFjmLuL2qFTiJpJSKJU2Qq8T26O7= JXVWNReT2EAIJNXnBsc07wVqNNtPL46TzoEGBVxqZGFxs-I$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!80-i9LrAmC3Ks04SpFjmLuL2qFTiJpJSKJU2Qq8T26O7= JXVWNReT2EAIJNXnBsc07wVqNNtPL46TzoEGBVxqu4rp5No$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 041938
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Jan 04 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS...

16z Update: Locally heavy rainfall rates into coastal Monterey
County will continue to result in an isolated flash flood and
mudslide risk through ~00z. Hourly rainfall between 0.5"-1" will
continue to locally occur, with a slow southward shift expected in
these heavier rainfall rates through the day. Rainfall totals of
2-4" are expected along the coastal portion of Monterey County.

Another focus for heavy rainfall will be across the eastern valley
into the foothills of the central Sierra. Southerly flow up the
valley, combined with westerly flow behind an approaching cold
front, will locally enhance convergence and support some periodic
low topped convection capable of rainfall rates over 0.5"/hr. The
combination of upslope enhanced rainfall and these locally higher
rates will result in a continued isolated to scattered flash flood
risk through today.

Showers into southern CA through today may periodically drop ~0.5"
of rain within an hour...but the coverage and magnitude of rainfall
is not expected to match what occurred yesterday over Santa
Barbara and Ventura counties. By tonight the approaching cold
front should increase shower coverage, but again hourly rainfall
should generally peak around 0.5" or less. HREF FFG exceedance
probabilities stay below 15%, and while there is a risk of
isolated flash flooding and mudslides, the magnitude of the threat
is lower than yesterday and also mainly focused farther south.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage and intensity
Sunday morning across northern to central California as the next
batch of shortwave energy rotates through the mean west coast trof
and inland across central CA. PW values and 850-700 mb moisture
flux are expected to increase Sunday associated with this next
batch of shortwave energy. This will support locally heavy precip
totals along much of the California coast Ranges and into the
upslope of the Sierra. Hourly rainfall rates in the .25-.50" range
possible along the central CA coast and into the upslope of the
northern Sierra. A small slight risk area was maintained in the
upslope of the northern Sierra where model consensus is for
potential of additional 1 to 2" of rain. The HREF probabilities of
3 hr precip exceeding 3 hr FFG values shows an area of 15-30%
probabilities sinking southward along the upslope of the northern
Sierra Sunday where the slight risk area is drawn. Overall, no
changes of note made to the previous outlook for the upcoming day 1
period.


Oravec

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

19Z Update: Our model preference is shifting towards the closer to
the coast low track and thus wetter scenario of the
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET/AIFS. Still not a high confidence forecast, but=20
this scenario seems to have more support than the farther offshore
GFS/NAM solution. The upward trend in QPF supports a solid=20
Marginal risk of excessive rainfall, with amounts of 1-3" and some=20
flood impacts likely across central/northern CA. We gave some=20
consideration to a Slight risk upgrade, but it remains unclear=20
whether rainfall rates will get high enough for that level of flash
flood risk. So for now we will keep things at the Marginal level=20
and continue to monitor. It's worth noting that most 12z HREF=20
members appear too far offshore with the closed low, with this poor
synoptic scale forecast negatively impacting their QPF forecast.=20
Thus we were not really able to rely on the high res hourly=20
rainfall forecasts this cycle...so hopefully the 00z HREF will=20
trend more in line with the global model consensus, which should in
turn result in more useful hourly rainfall rate data to diagnose=20
the flash flood risk.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

There are large scale differences developing day 2 with the
amplification of a closed low in the base of the mean trof off the
Central to Southern CA coast. The NAM and GFS are showing a more
southwest solution compared to the EC, CMC and UKMET. This farther
southwest solution is resulting in a trend of less precip along
the central CA coast to the south of San Francisco and into the
Northern Sierra in the GFS and NAM as the low level flow has a
much weaker onshore component compared to the EC, CMC and UKMET.
Models often struggle with closed formation downstream of
flattening upper ridges with overall low confidence at the moment.
The latest WPC qpf did trend towards less precip across the central
CA Coast Range and over the Northern Sierra, but not as dry as the
GFS and NAM. Subsequently, the previous marginal risk area was
decreased in size. There may be additional changes needed to the
risk area with future model cycles, depending how the evolution of
the closing off mid to upper level center evolves.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

...The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9mKkEMKK1V8M4zUKSgH6brhInGUvJrsfJNRgyc6yrHdB= hmT5qpXhBzD7_HSqkR5_oeRRZ59xDmlLnO6pQklnG0pkbzk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9mKkEMKK1V8M4zUKSgH6brhInGUvJrsfJNRgyc6yrHdB= hmT5qpXhBzD7_HSqkR5_oeRRZ59xDmlLnO6pQklnRFHk8RU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9mKkEMKK1V8M4zUKSgH6brhInGUvJrsfJNRgyc6yrHdB= hmT5qpXhBzD7_HSqkR5_oeRRZ59xDmlLnO6pQkln4TO8T2E$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 050025
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS...

01Z Update: Few changes made to the previously updated Excessive
Rainfall Outlook based on the neighborhood probabilities and
exceedance guidance from the 18Z HREF. Even though the probability
of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance overnight tended to=20
persist for only one or two hours at any spot...they still tended=20
to fit within the Marginal risk areas and the Slight Risk area=20
still captured the area where broad, persistent light to=20
occasional moderate rainfall is expected to persist the longest.

Bann

16z Update: Locally heavy rainfall rates into coastal Monterey
County will continue to result in an isolated flash flood and
mudslide risk through ~00z. Hourly rainfall between 0.5"-1" will
continue to locally occur, with a slow southward shift expected in
these heavier rainfall rates through the day. Rainfall totals of
2-4" are expected along the coastal portion of Monterey County.

Another focus for heavy rainfall will be across the eastern valley
into the foothills of the central Sierra. Southerly flow up the
valley, combined with westerly flow behind an approaching cold
front, will locally enhance convergence and support some periodic
low topped convection capable of rainfall rates over 0.5"/hr. The
combination of upslope enhanced rainfall and these locally higher
rates will result in a continued isolated to scattered flash flood
risk through today.

Showers into southern CA through today may periodically drop ~0.5"
of rain within an hour...but the coverage and magnitude of rainfall
is not expected to match what occurred yesterday over Santa
Barbara and Ventura counties. By tonight the approaching cold
front should increase shower coverage, but again hourly rainfall
should generally peak around 0.5" or less. HREF FFG exceedance
probabilities stay below 15%, and while there is a risk of
isolated flash flooding and mudslides, the magnitude of the threat
is lower than yesterday and also mainly focused farther south.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage and intensity
Sunday morning across northern to central California as the next
batch of shortwave energy rotates through the mean west coast trof
and inland across central CA. PW values and 850-700 mb moisture
flux are expected to increase Sunday associated with this next
batch of shortwave energy. This will support locally heavy precip
totals along much of the California coast Ranges and into the
upslope of the Sierra. Hourly rainfall rates in the .25-.50" range
possible along the central CA coast and into the upslope of the
northern Sierra. A small slight risk area was maintained in the
upslope of the northern Sierra where model consensus is for
potential of additional 1 to 2" of rain. The HREF probabilities of
3 hr precip exceeding 3 hr FFG values shows an area of 15-30%
probabilities sinking southward along the upslope of the northern
Sierra Sunday where the slight risk area is drawn. Overall, no
changes of note made to the previous outlook for the upcoming day 1
period.


Oravec

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

19Z Update: Our model preference is shifting towards the closer to
the coast low track and thus wetter scenario of the
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET/AIFS. Still not a high confidence forecast, but
this scenario seems to have more support than the farther offshore
GFS/NAM solution. The upward trend in QPF supports a solid
Marginal risk of excessive rainfall, with amounts of 1-3" and some
flood impacts likely across central/northern CA. We gave some
consideration to a Slight risk upgrade, but it remains unclear
whether rainfall rates will get high enough for that level of flash
flood risk. So for now we will keep things at the Marginal level
and continue to monitor. It's worth noting that most 12z HREF
members appear too far offshore with the closed low, with this poor
synoptic scale forecast negatively impacting their QPF forecast.
Thus we were not really able to rely on the high res hourly
rainfall forecasts this cycle...so hopefully the 00z HREF will
trend more in line with the global model consensus, which should in
turn result in more useful hourly rainfall rate data to diagnose
the flash flood risk.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

There are large scale differences developing day 2 with the
amplification of a closed low in the base of the mean trof off the
Central to Southern CA coast. The NAM and GFS are showing a more
southwest solution compared to the EC, CMC and UKMET. This farther
southwest solution is resulting in a trend of less precip along
the central CA coast to the south of San Francisco and into the
Northern Sierra in the GFS and NAM as the low level flow has a
much weaker onshore component compared to the EC, CMC and UKMET.
Models often struggle with closed formation downstream of
flattening upper ridges with overall low confidence at the moment.
The latest WPC qpf did trend towards less precip across the central
CA Coast Range and over the Northern Sierra, but not as dry as the
GFS and NAM. Subsequently, the previous marginal risk area was
decreased in size. There may be additional changes needed to the
risk area with future model cycles, depending how the evolution of
the closing off mid to upper level center evolves.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

...The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Wuh7Hqj1mInwyvegUqxNJKdAJgHqR-K1NGnnEapyhUg= vVSY9_ICYGqPf3af5fgIw8YHDeEVQ6A2C5tFUNdliBaf9KI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Wuh7Hqj1mInwyvegUqxNJKdAJgHqR-K1NGnnEapyhUg= vVSY9_ICYGqPf3af5fgIw8YHDeEVQ6A2C5tFUNdlp8La4-c$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Wuh7Hqj1mInwyvegUqxNJKdAJgHqR-K1NGnnEapyhUg= vVSY9_ICYGqPf3af5fgIw8YHDeEVQ6A2C5tFUNdlr0DRJFA$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 050745
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

Upper disturbance off the California coast will meander to the=20
southeast closer to the coastal plain, eventually pinching off the
mean trough centered to the north and closing off into an ULL as it
migrates down near the latitude of the Bay area. Proximity of the
disturbance and prevailing flow will send a modest IVT pulse
(300-400 kg/ms) crashing into the northern CA coastal plain with=20
some minor protrusion of the IVT signature inland with a secondary
QPF maxima forecast around the Trinity Mountains over into Shasta
National Forest domain. Hi-res deterministic output is pretty
consistent with the axis of heaviest precip focused from the King
Range down towards Santa Rosa, north of the Bay area with the
latest HREF EAS probs for 1" running between 60-90% for much of
that location with another prob max focused near Mount Shasta.=20

The main threat for this setup is easily over any urbanized zones
and remnant burn scars across northern CA leading to mainly a
lower-end flash flood concern in the grand scheme of the setup. IVT
signature is one that historically yields more isolated flash flood
threats with the primary focus typically aimed at that coastal
urban centered from the Bay area up towards Eureka, and over the
northern valley locations like Redding. This is where the MRGL=20
risk was maintained during the forecast as the trend for the=20
southern edge of any heavy rain prospects south of San Jose has all
but disappeared on guidance. It's still something we'll monitor=20
for any last minute trends back, but guidance favors mainly the=20
area north of the Bay at this time. Total QPF for the impacted
areas will be between 1.5-3" with a max between 4-5" for the
coastal ranges north of the Bay area, and over the Shasta National
Forest.=20

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

...The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

...The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!96DUzsIi05yBlbUty7CfOGn8V8wA1_WQY-ozN4WaXitJ= slfYrEEwEU8mHjwZrZ8nlHYCZiAmrQJueRfi5qXWIegpBsk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!96DUzsIi05yBlbUty7CfOGn8V8wA1_WQY-ozN4WaXitJ= slfYrEEwEU8mHjwZrZ8nlHYCZiAmrQJueRfi5qXWl84badE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!96DUzsIi05yBlbUty7CfOGn8V8wA1_WQY-ozN4WaXitJ= slfYrEEwEU8mHjwZrZ8nlHYCZiAmrQJueRfi5qXWNIjetgw$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 051559
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1059 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...16Z update...

The forecast reasoning in the previous discussion remains valid and
only minor adjustments were made to the existing Marginal Risk
across north-central California. The primary shortwave embedded
within the longwave trough in the eastern Pacific was centered near
128W and will advance closer to the north-central California coast
between Point Arena and San Francisco Bay through 00Z. After 00Z,
the closed mid-level low will elongate and weaken as it moves
southward offshore of the coast. There is good model agreement in=20
this forecast and the corresponding low level wind field becoming
largely parallel to the central California coast overnight while
weakening.=20

The main concern for heavy rain related impacts will be prior to
03Z Tuesday where isolated hourly rainfall of 0.50 to 0.75 inches
primarily focused along the Coastal Ranges toward the San Francisco
Bay region later today with isolated hourly totals near 1 inch
possible. East of the Coastal Ranges, peak hourly rainfall up to
~0.50 inches is expected. Additional peak rainfall through 12Z=20
Tuesday will be in the 2-4 inch range=20

Otto

...previous discussion follows...


Upper disturbance off the California coast will meander to the
southeast closer to the coastal plain, eventually pinching off the
mean trough centered to the north and closing off into an ULL as it
migrates down near the latitude of the Bay area. Proximity of the
disturbance and prevailing flow will send a modest IVT pulse
(300-400 kg/ms) crashing into the northern CA coastal plain with
some minor protrusion of the IVT signature inland with a secondary
QPF maxima forecast around the Trinity Mountains over into Shasta
National Forest domain. Hi-res deterministic output is pretty
consistent with the axis of heaviest precip focused from the King
Range down towards Santa Rosa, north of the Bay area with the
latest HREF EAS probs for 1" running between 60-90% for much of
that location with another prob max focused near Mount Shasta.

The main threat for this setup is easily over any urbanized zones
and remnant burn scars across northern CA leading to mainly a
lower-end flash flood concern in the grand scheme of the setup. IVT
signature is one that historically yields more isolated flash flood
threats with the primary focus typically aimed at that coastal
urban centered from the Bay area up towards Eureka, and over the
northern valley locations like Redding. This is where the MRGL
risk was maintained during the forecast as the trend for the
southern edge of any heavy rain prospects south of San Jose has all
but disappeared on guidance. It's still something we'll monitor
for any last minute trends back, but guidance favors mainly the
area north of the Bay at this time. Total QPF for the impacted
areas will be between 1.5-3" with a max between 4-5" for the
coastal ranges north of the Bay area, and over the Shasta National
Forest.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

...The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

...The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6hXh8vvey_HW66MXTJqAw5HOpVaTgWtdvmqEC0UWGC2Q= b6bamI7GUQ2MacMxLnOYzgwwYjlL-eOPX5wFgv2qXjrJSuM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6hXh8vvey_HW66MXTJqAw5HOpVaTgWtdvmqEC0UWGC2Q= b6bamI7GUQ2MacMxLnOYzgwwYjlL-eOPX5wFgv2qQ96waOw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6hXh8vvey_HW66MXTJqAw5HOpVaTgWtdvmqEC0UWGC2Q= b6bamI7GUQ2MacMxLnOYzgwwYjlL-eOPX5wFgv2qwl0e5U0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 051953
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Jan 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...16Z update...

The forecast reasoning in the previous discussion remains valid and
only minor adjustments were made to the existing Marginal Risk
across north-central California. The primary shortwave embedded
within the longwave trough in the eastern Pacific was centered near
128W and will advance closer to the north-central California coast
between Point Arena and San Francisco Bay through 00Z. After 00Z,
the closed mid-level low will elongate and weaken as it moves
southward offshore of the coast. There is good model agreement in
this forecast and the corresponding low level wind field becoming
largely parallel to the central California coast overnight while
weakening.

The main concern for heavy rain related impacts will be prior to
03Z Tuesday where isolated hourly rainfall of 0.50 to 0.75 inches
primarily focused along the Coastal Ranges toward the San Francisco
Bay region later today with isolated hourly totals near 1 inch
possible. East of the Coastal Ranges, peak hourly rainfall up to
~0.50 inches is expected. Additional peak rainfall through 12Z
Tuesday will be in the 2-4 inch range

Otto

...previous discussion follows...


Upper disturbance off the California coast will meander to the
southeast closer to the coastal plain, eventually pinching off the
mean trough centered to the north and closing off into an ULL as it
migrates down near the latitude of the Bay area. Proximity of the
disturbance and prevailing flow will send a modest IVT pulse
(300-400 kg/ms) crashing into the northern CA coastal plain with
some minor protrusion of the IVT signature inland with a secondary
QPF maxima forecast around the Trinity Mountains over into Shasta
National Forest domain. Hi-res deterministic output is pretty
consistent with the axis of heaviest precip focused from the King
Range down towards Santa Rosa, north of the Bay area with the
latest HREF EAS probs for 1" running between 60-90% for much of
that location with another prob max focused near Mount Shasta.

The main threat for this setup is easily over any urbanized zones
and remnant burn scars across northern CA leading to mainly a
lower-end flash flood concern in the grand scheme of the setup. IVT
signature is one that historically yields more isolated flash flood
threats with the primary focus typically aimed at that coastal
urban centered from the Bay area up towards Eureka, and over the
northern valley locations like Redding. This is where the MRGL
risk was maintained during the forecast as the trend for the
southern edge of any heavy rain prospects south of San Jose has all
but disappeared on guidance. It's still something we'll monitor
for any last minute trends back, but guidance favors mainly the
area north of the Bay at this time. Total QPF for the impacted
areas will be between 1.5-3" with a max between 4-5" for the
coastal ranges north of the Bay area, and over the Shasta National
Forest.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

...The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Fracasso


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

...The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Fracasso


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6AsOmZ_in_uXrFkxIwNNONjkSiA6WvxWcxkNfF6oiCkm= EHj6MVJC65_3NmD4ePzLaNN_WoVzhreb0KiehCCF4zZXGKI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6AsOmZ_in_uXrFkxIwNNONjkSiA6WvxWcxkNfF6oiCkm= EHj6MVJC65_3NmD4ePzLaNN_WoVzhreb0KiehCCFUjwPdcM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6AsOmZ_in_uXrFkxIwNNONjkSiA6WvxWcxkNfF6oiCkm= EHj6MVJC65_3NmD4ePzLaNN_WoVzhreb0KiehCCFqAJdXMQ$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 060026
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
726 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

01Z Update...
Late afternoon radar imagery supported the reasoning detailed below
and that only minor adjustments were needed to the Marginal Risk
area across north-central California. Satellite imagery suggested
the elongation of the closed mid-level low was underway and that
the overall flow pattern should become more parallel to the coast
as shown by the models. Until then...locally moderate to heavy
rainfall into mid- or late-evening on top of soil already at or=20
near saturation may still result in flooding of creeks, streams,
and low-lying areas.

Bann

16Z update...

The forecast reasoning in the previous discussion remains valid and
only minor adjustments were made to the existing Marginal Risk
across north-central California. The primary shortwave embedded
within the longwave trough in the eastern Pacific was centered near
128W and will advance closer to the north-central California coast
between Point Arena and San Francisco Bay through 00Z. After 00Z,
the closed mid-level low will elongate and weaken as it moves
southward offshore of the coast. There is good model agreement in
this forecast and the corresponding low level wind field becoming
largely parallel to the central California coast overnight while
weakening.

The main concern for heavy rain related impacts will be prior to
03Z Tuesday where isolated hourly rainfall of 0.50 to 0.75 inches
primarily focused along the Coastal Ranges toward the San Francisco
Bay region later today with isolated hourly totals near 1 inch
possible. East of the Coastal Ranges, peak hourly rainfall up to
~0.50 inches is expected. Additional peak rainfall through 12Z
Tuesday will be in the 2-4 inch range

Otto

...previous discussion follows...


Upper disturbance off the California coast will meander to the
southeast closer to the coastal plain, eventually pinching off the
mean trough centered to the north and closing off into an ULL as it
migrates down near the latitude of the Bay area. Proximity of the
disturbance and prevailing flow will send a modest IVT pulse
(300-400 kg/ms) crashing into the northern CA coastal plain with
some minor protrusion of the IVT signature inland with a secondary
QPF maxima forecast around the Trinity Mountains over into Shasta
National Forest domain. Hi-res deterministic output is pretty
consistent with the axis of heaviest precip focused from the King
Range down towards Santa Rosa, north of the Bay area with the
latest HREF EAS probs for 1" running between 60-90% for much of
that location with another prob max focused near Mount Shasta.

The main threat for this setup is easily over any urbanized zones
and remnant burn scars across northern CA leading to mainly a
lower-end flash flood concern in the grand scheme of the setup. IVT
signature is one that historically yields more isolated flash flood
threats with the primary focus typically aimed at that coastal
urban centered from the Bay area up towards Eureka, and over the
northern valley locations like Redding. This is where the MRGL
risk was maintained during the forecast as the trend for the
southern edge of any heavy rain prospects south of San Jose has all
but disappeared on guidance. It's still something we'll monitor
for any last minute trends back, but guidance favors mainly the
area north of the Bay at this time. Total QPF for the impacted
areas will be between 1.5-3" with a max between 4-5" for the
coastal ranges north of the Bay area, and over the Shasta National
Forest.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Fracasso


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Fracasso


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7d_JWs6vbl9-pUD-z1JIXl3WfmjtMfgEruYtZmjhtr6j= Nt4fb6rij8vEw0PGmYBh8e9PJ9w17MtvhVGFdzw8nXWQnbY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7d_JWs6vbl9-pUD-z1JIXl3WfmjtMfgEruYtZmjhtr6j= Nt4fb6rij8vEw0PGmYBh8e9PJ9w17MtvhVGFdzw8x0exAaM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7d_JWs6vbl9-pUD-z1JIXl3WfmjtMfgEruYtZmjhtr6j= Nt4fb6rij8vEw0PGmYBh8e9PJ9w17MtvhVGFdzw8Lb25Xns$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 060718
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...

Surface low over the Southern Plains will spawn and move northeast
through the period with an established meridional flow projected to
usher elevated moisture poleward, even as far north as the Great
Lakes. Instability will be limited, but non-zero across the Mississippi
Valley with relatively modest MUCAPE on the eastern periphery of
the cyclone. PWAT anomalies approaching record territory would
normally spur greater emphasis on heavy precipitation, but the
relative nature of the PWAT anomaly being in January stunts the
maximum potential limiting more widespread nature of flash flood
prospects.=20

That said, north of I-70, grounds are mostly frozen from the long
stretch of sub-freezing temperatures maintaining a lower prospect
for rainfall absorption and a higher propensity for run off. Areas
along and north of I-80 across northern IL has the deeper sub-soil
layers frozen with grounds likely to encounter majority run off
during the period as moderate to locally heavy rainfall spreads
north. In collaboration with the local Chicago WFO, a small MRGL
was maintained across northern IL to account for the local flooding
threat given the parameters of elevated PWATs and higher risk for
run off. Urbanization in this area is also very prevalent, so heavy
rains could even spur some flooding risks due to poor drainage in
spots.=20

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9yiR8ngfPN6aKXHqr3tVACHQx3QRZacD3hWyKi-iGW5U= _zHeBXy5yiHbDXqriyrlYCGKWQX5UMJ72Hem2Lq9s55t_q0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9yiR8ngfPN6aKXHqr3tVACHQx3QRZacD3hWyKi-iGW5U= _zHeBXy5yiHbDXqriyrlYCGKWQX5UMJ72Hem2Lq9ztBzX1c$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9yiR8ngfPN6aKXHqr3tVACHQx3QRZacD3hWyKi-iGW5U= _zHeBXy5yiHbDXqriyrlYCGKWQX5UMJ72Hem2Lq9vKWxFKc$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 061455
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Cook/Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...

Surface low over the Southern Plains will spawn and move northeast
through the period with an established meridional flow projected to
usher elevated moisture poleward, even as far north as the Great
Lakes. Instability will be limited, but non-zero across the Mississippi
Valley with relatively modest MUCAPE on the eastern periphery of
the cyclone. PWAT anomalies approaching record territory would
normally spur greater emphasis on heavy precipitation, but the
relative nature of the PWAT anomaly being in January stunts the
maximum potential limiting more widespread nature of flash flood
prospects.

That said, north of I-70, grounds are mostly frozen from the long
stretch of sub-freezing temperatures maintaining a lower prospect
for rainfall absorption and a higher propensity for run off. Areas
along and north of I-80 across northern IL has the deeper sub-soil
layers frozen with grounds likely to encounter majority run off
during the period as moderate to locally heavy rainfall spreads
north. In collaboration with the local Chicago WFO, a small MRGL
was maintained across northern IL to account for the local flooding
threat given the parameters of elevated PWATs and higher risk for
run off. Urbanization in this area is also very prevalent, so heavy
rains could even spur some flooding risks due to poor drainage in
spots.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ELk9hTcNW3DDD8sD5VCZarXXpZuEiJcCPQp7-QX8-H_= qFSE-DA8LSGEGZS3Ja-gUs-AiSJ2DSg-ZCU0s_xgTHZml8w$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ELk9hTcNW3DDD8sD5VCZarXXpZuEiJcCPQp7-QX8-H_= qFSE-DA8LSGEGZS3Ja-gUs-AiSJ2DSg-ZCU0s_xgWAQrBdw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ELk9hTcNW3DDD8sD5VCZarXXpZuEiJcCPQp7-QX8-H_= qFSE-DA8LSGEGZS3Ja-gUs-AiSJ2DSg-ZCU0s_xgrPuv7E4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 061840
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
140 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Cook/Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!99bB38pkZ8KH3CPl7gqL2HUfJ-vVFGdPlfEslKUP8Y97= 4UDKtQvqGN6nNc5979gbjznKkvlp4oQ_PPvGhEE9JWGwuB4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!99bB38pkZ8KH3CPl7gqL2HUfJ-vVFGdPlfEslKUP8Y97= 4UDKtQvqGN6nNc5979gbjznKkvlp4oQ_PPvGhEE9uWnR3A4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!99bB38pkZ8KH3CPl7gqL2HUfJ-vVFGdPlfEslKUP8Y97= 4UDKtQvqGN6nNc5979gbjznKkvlp4oQ_PPvGhEE9_oeFzJE$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 070044
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
744 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!99UWJYri5gSM_p_IbdM01qky9HhK0XJJwzff3MCe1kkg= Lb6bmBeqZ-ikVM5TKREI9KvtJ4FXQNST8xT3yu3afz1twCs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!99UWJYri5gSM_p_IbdM01qky9HhK0XJJwzff3MCe1kkg= Lb6bmBeqZ-ikVM5TKREI9KvtJ4FXQNST8xT3yu3a5FTJHr8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!99UWJYri5gSM_p_IbdM01qky9HhK0XJJwzff3MCe1kkg= Lb6bmBeqZ-ikVM5TKREI9KvtJ4FXQNST8xT3yu3aDfHJbBc$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 070740
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

Large scale amplification of a trough over the Central Rockies into
the Central Plains will generate a broad axis of ascent from the=20
Mississippi Valley to points eastward with a cold frontal=20
progression slowly migrating east across the aforementioned areas.=20 Meridional component of the pattern evolution will benefit from the strengthening mean trough with multiple shortwave ejections=20
rounding the trough base across the Lower Mississippi Valley,=20
advancing northeast through the Southeastern U.S. before migrating=20
into the Tennessee Valley by the end of the D3. Deep moisture plume
ahead of the trough will usher anomalous PWATs on the order of +2
to +4 sigma spanning east TX through much of the Southeast into=20
the Southern Ohio Valley. Ample shear and deep moist axis will
maintain a prevalent fixture for much of the period with flow
running close to, if not parallel to the frontal axis that will
bisect southwest to northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley
through Central and Northern MS/AL into TN. Current ensemble trends
favor a rather broad axis of 2-3" precip totals just within the
means with the deterministic output pushing closer to 4-5" with the
maxima focused over central MS up through northern AL to south-
central TN. This aligns well with the pattern evolution progressing
the front into those confines with a multi-wave ejection riding
into the front as they eject out of the broad deep-layer
southwesterly flow situated across the region.=20

This setup is classic for a winter time flash flood prospect across
this area of the CONUS as broad ascent coupled with ample deep-
layer shear and highly anomalous moisture tends to amplify the
threat for heavy rainfall repeating over the same areas. This is
being forecast within the Southeast and far southern edge of the
Ohio Valley with the ensemble overlap generally in that corridor
from east-central MS to points north and east with a maxima
oriented over northern AL into southern TN. This is likely the area
to watch, however don't be surprised if areas south across the
southern half of MS into parts of LA see a greater heavy convective
signature that tends to crop up in the short range as the=20
instability maximum tends to verify a bit further south compared=20
to what global deterministic output has at this lead. For now,
maintained general continuity in the grand scheme, but adjusted the
SLGT and MRGL risks based on QPF trends and alignment with the
greatest potential for training, and elevated theta_E placement.=20

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_Cc3pn5fLAEdigagMrDWZuY3VXDABFkL_wW8LpCaSmgn= xwkRnLMaSPUDTRC-6onpFI4zhI34cU7e4Ldd3thMpXjNfME$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_Cc3pn5fLAEdigagMrDWZuY3VXDABFkL_wW8LpCaSmgn= xwkRnLMaSPUDTRC-6onpFI4zhI34cU7e4Ldd3thMyZgm_Xc$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_Cc3pn5fLAEdigagMrDWZuY3VXDABFkL_wW8LpCaSmgn= xwkRnLMaSPUDTRC-6onpFI4zhI34cU7e4Ldd3thMyYaNkPo$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 071530
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1030 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Otto


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

Large scale amplification of a trough over the Central Rockies into
the Central Plains will generate a broad axis of ascent from the
Mississippi Valley to points eastward with a cold frontal
progression slowly migrating east across the aforementioned areas.
Meridional component of the pattern evolution will benefit from the strengthening mean trough with multiple shortwave ejections
rounding the trough base across the Lower Mississippi Valley,
advancing northeast through the Southeastern U.S. before migrating
into the Tennessee Valley by the end of the D3. Deep moisture plume
ahead of the trough will usher anomalous PWATs on the order of +2
to +4 sigma spanning east TX through much of the Southeast into
the Southern Ohio Valley. Ample shear and deep moist axis will
maintain a prevalent fixture for much of the period with flow
running close to, if not parallel to the frontal axis that will
bisect southwest to northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley
through Central and Northern MS/AL into TN. Current ensemble trends
favor a rather broad axis of 2-3" precip totals just within the
means with the deterministic output pushing closer to 4-5" with the
maxima focused over central MS up through northern AL to south-
central TN. This aligns well with the pattern evolution progressing
the front into those confines with a multi-wave ejection riding
into the front as they eject out of the broad deep-layer
southwesterly flow situated across the region.

This setup is classic for a winter time flash flood prospect across
this area of the CONUS as broad ascent coupled with ample deep-
layer shear and highly anomalous moisture tends to amplify the
threat for heavy rainfall repeating over the same areas. This is
being forecast within the Southeast and far southern edge of the
Ohio Valley with the ensemble overlap generally in that corridor
from east-central MS to points north and east with a maxima
oriented over northern AL into southern TN. This is likely the area
to watch, however don't be surprised if areas south across the
southern half of MS into parts of LA see a greater heavy convective
signature that tends to crop up in the short range as the
instability maximum tends to verify a bit further south compared
to what global deterministic output has at this lead. For now,
maintained general continuity in the grand scheme, but adjusted the
SLGT and MRGL risks based on QPF trends and alignment with the
greatest potential for training, and elevated theta_E placement.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_uJi460_V-aafgAa6dwDEaMSRNN4h_Kfjle6NdEGlsaT= GQ6-5HtWDZRxUiCGyQJ6T0TaOEq9tpZFRR2sCcu28LKFPZA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_uJi460_V-aafgAa6dwDEaMSRNN4h_Kfjle6NdEGlsaT= GQ6-5HtWDZRxUiCGyQJ6T0TaOEq9tpZFRR2sCcu2A81IMZ4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_uJi460_V-aafgAa6dwDEaMSRNN4h_Kfjle6NdEGlsaT= GQ6-5HtWDZRxUiCGyQJ6T0TaOEq9tpZFRR2sCcu2vihVB84$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 071854
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Otto


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Cook/Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...

...21Z Outlook Update...
A few modifications were made to the Marginal and Slight Risk
areas - mainly to trend southward and slightly westward per 12Z=20
guidance. These expansions now include Birmingham, AL and Jackson,=20
MS metropolitan areas. QPFs have increased in these areas, and the=20
nature of the forcing/ascent suggests potential for a few storms to
train. Additionally, storms may focus along a warm front oriented=20
east to west across the region, but models are generally uncertain=20
on where this front will reside when the bulk of the convection=20
moves through the risk areas. Furthermore, mesoscale details are=20
unclear and outflows/convective augmentation of the warm front are=20
all possible. Potential is there for a localized region of 5+=20
inches of rain during the forecast period but with details=20
remaining unclear, holding at Slight/Marginal seems to be the best=20
course of action. Ground conditions are quite dry, which lends some
uncertainty on the ground impacts/flash flood potential but if=20
enough rainfall occurs on a localized basis, that aspect of the=20
forecast may not matter as much.

See the prior forecast below for additional information.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

Large scale amplification of a trough over the Central Rockies into
the Central Plains will generate a broad axis of ascent from the
Mississippi Valley to points eastward with a cold frontal
progression slowly migrating east across the aforementioned areas.
Meridional component of the pattern evolution will benefit from the strengthening mean trough with multiple shortwave ejections
rounding the trough base across the Lower Mississippi Valley,
advancing northeast through the Southeastern U.S. before migrating
into the Tennessee Valley by the end of the D3. Deep moisture plume
ahead of the trough will usher anomalous PWATs on the order of +2
to +4 sigma spanning east TX through much of the Southeast into
the Southern Ohio Valley. Ample shear and deep moist axis will
maintain a prevalent fixture for much of the period with flow
running close to, if not parallel to the frontal axis that will
bisect southwest to northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley
through Central and Northern MS/AL into TN. Current ensemble trends
favor a rather broad axis of 2-3" precip totals just within the
means with the deterministic output pushing closer to 4-5" with the
maxima focused over central MS up through northern AL to south-
central TN. This aligns well with the pattern evolution progressing
the front into those confines with a multi-wave ejection riding
into the front as they eject out of the broad deep-layer
southwesterly flow situated across the region.

This setup is classic for a winter time flash flood prospect across
this area of the CONUS as broad ascent coupled with ample deep-
layer shear and highly anomalous moisture tends to amplify the
threat for heavy rainfall repeating over the same areas. This is
being forecast within the Southeast and far southern edge of the
Ohio Valley with the ensemble overlap generally in that corridor
from east-central MS to points north and east with a maxima
oriented over northern AL into southern TN. This is likely the area
to watch, however don't be surprised if areas south across the
southern half of MS into parts of LA see a greater heavy convective
signature that tends to crop up in the short range as the
instability maximum tends to verify a bit further south compared
to what global deterministic output has at this lead. For now,
maintained general continuity in the grand scheme, but adjusted the
SLGT and MRGL risks based on QPF trends and alignment with the
greatest potential for training, and elevated theta_E placement.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-Te7XQvCcYUMF72bJoH1aH9rt7wrT2SvUdy9yu7eW2cG= YdQZVALSh1oaUadu-A9ImDPp9b8ZdxpOYnQaPt6IYgBcaZs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-Te7XQvCcYUMF72bJoH1aH9rt7wrT2SvUdy9yu7eW2cG= YdQZVALSh1oaUadu-A9ImDPp9b8ZdxpOYnQaPt6ISZk0cWg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-Te7XQvCcYUMF72bJoH1aH9rt7wrT2SvUdy9yu7eW2cG= YdQZVALSh1oaUadu-A9ImDPp9b8ZdxpOYnQaPt6I0cXghzk$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 080042
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
742 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Cook/Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...

...21Z Outlook Update...
A few modifications were made to the Marginal and Slight Risk
areas - mainly to trend southward and slightly westward per 12Z
guidance. These expansions now include Birmingham, AL and Jackson,
MS metropolitan areas. QPFs have increased in these areas, and the
nature of the forcing/ascent suggests potential for a few storms to
train. Additionally, storms may focus along a warm front oriented
east to west across the region, but models are generally uncertain
on where this front will reside when the bulk of the convection
moves through the risk areas. Furthermore, mesoscale details are
unclear and outflows/convective augmentation of the warm front are
all possible. Potential is there for a localized region of 5+
inches of rain during the forecast period but with details
remaining unclear, holding at Slight/Marginal seems to be the best
course of action. Ground conditions are quite dry, which lends some
uncertainty on the ground impacts/flash flood potential but if
enough rainfall occurs on a localized basis, that aspect of the
forecast may not matter as much.

See the prior forecast below for additional information.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

Large scale amplification of a trough over the Central Rockies into
the Central Plains will generate a broad axis of ascent from the
Mississippi Valley to points eastward with a cold frontal
progression slowly migrating east across the aforementioned areas.
Meridional component of the pattern evolution will benefit from the strengthening mean trough with multiple shortwave ejections
rounding the trough base across the Lower Mississippi Valley,
advancing northeast through the Southeastern U.S. before migrating
into the Tennessee Valley by the end of the D3. Deep moisture plume
ahead of the trough will usher anomalous PWATs on the order of +2
to +4 sigma spanning east TX through much of the Southeast into
the Southern Ohio Valley. Ample shear and deep moist axis will
maintain a prevalent fixture for much of the period with flow
running close to, if not parallel to the frontal axis that will
bisect southwest to northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley
through Central and Northern MS/AL into TN. Current ensemble trends
favor a rather broad axis of 2-3" precip totals just within the
means with the deterministic output pushing closer to 4-5" with the
maxima focused over central MS up through northern AL to south-
central TN. This aligns well with the pattern evolution progressing
the front into those confines with a multi-wave ejection riding
into the front as they eject out of the broad deep-layer
southwesterly flow situated across the region.

This setup is classic for a winter time flash flood prospect across
this area of the CONUS as broad ascent coupled with ample deep-
layer shear and highly anomalous moisture tends to amplify the
threat for heavy rainfall repeating over the same areas. This is
being forecast within the Southeast and far southern edge of the
Ohio Valley with the ensemble overlap generally in that corridor
from east-central MS to points north and east with a maxima
oriented over northern AL into southern TN. This is likely the area
to watch, however don't be surprised if areas south across the
southern half of MS into parts of LA see a greater heavy convective
signature that tends to crop up in the short range as the
instability maximum tends to verify a bit further south compared
to what global deterministic output has at this lead. For now,
maintained general continuity in the grand scheme, but adjusted the
SLGT and MRGL risks based on QPF trends and alignment with the
greatest potential for training, and elevated theta_E placement.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4VTz3mDXzK6Lll9d61JeRHPlRLeNGboZtYccpIDxJafu= ShB084rcjPtH3j8xlt8-rBGdsIN81qxFvvtrcu1gBFW14o8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4VTz3mDXzK6Lll9d61JeRHPlRLeNGboZtYccpIDxJafu= ShB084rcjPtH3j8xlt8-rBGdsIN81qxFvvtrcu1gQYyir1o$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4VTz3mDXzK6Lll9d61JeRHPlRLeNGboZtYccpIDxJafu= ShB084rcjPtH3j8xlt8-rBGdsIN81qxFvvtrcu1gPGbrqaY$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 080715
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

...THERE ARE MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST & LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Midwest/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A strong shortwave preceding the incoming upper level trough is=20
expected to bring 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE into portions of the region=20
during the day on Thursday. The 00z NAM's 2000+ J/kg bulls eye in=20
KS/MO right at the beginning of the period appears unrealistic/too
high based on recent SPC mesoanalysis MU CAPE trends, though its=20
trailing instability appears more reasonable, reinforced by the 03z
RAP. The mesoscale guidance advertises small areas of a low risk=20
of 3"+ across portions of KS, MO, IL, IN, and eventually LA and MS=20
Thursday night/early Friday morning. While precipitable water=20
values are in the 1-1.25" range for northern areas and 1.5"+ range=20
for southern areas, the atmosphere should be well saturated. There=20
appears to be enough instability to realize local hourly amounts of
1.5"+ where a sufficient number of organized thunderstorms are=20
able to materialize. Right now, that appears to be the biggest=20
issue. While it has been dry lately, flash flood guidance values=20
are modest across much of the area, with 3 hour guidance closer to=20
3" for the Lower Mississippi Valley, 2.5" for portions of KS/MO,=20
and 2" for IL/IN. The guidance indicates that the heavy rainfall=20
should move through quickly, so local amounts of 2-3" within a=20
couple hours could be enough for isolated to widely scattered=20
issues, particularly in urban areas. This led to the introduction=20
of Marginal Risk areas for the areas mentioned above.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...

Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A positively tilted trough with minimal eastward progression due to
the parent cyclone's progression northeast will generate a broad=20
axis of ascent from the Mississippi Valley to points eastward with=20
a cold frontal progression slowly migrating east. An anomalously=20
moisture plume ahead of the trough, noteworthy for January and near
summer averages with a range of 1.50-1.75", will be accompanied by
500-1500 J/kg of MU CAPE. Ample shear for convective organization=20
is expected, with low- level convergence more or less fixed from=20
the Atchafalya Basin in LA into the southern Appalachians. The=20
guidance is wet, with local 4-7" totals forecast locally. The
guidance has shifted southwest,. which caused a southwest shift in
the risk areas.

This synoptic setup is classic for a flash flood prospect across=20
this region. Deep layer southwest flow should lead to cell=20
training, and enough effective bulk shear exists for mesocyclone=20
formation. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are possible here, which=20
would overwhelm urban environments. The 00z HREF for the first half
of the period advertised a 30-35% of 5"+ near Laurel MS, which if=20
it occurred within a few hours would overwhelm non-urban=20
environments as well. At the moment, this appears to be a high end
Slight Risk, but it wouldn't be surprising if a Moderate Risk=20
was considered as we get further inside the mesoscale guidance=20
window. The eastern bounds of the Marginal Risk area were=20
coordinated with the RNK/Blacksburg VA, GSP/Greer SC, and=20
FFC/Peachtree City GA forecast offices.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS=20
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

Heavy rainfall early in the period is expected over what should be
at least partially saturated ground across portions of the=20
Southern Appalachians before heavy rainfall ejects into the=20
southern Mid- Atlantic States. Added a Marginal Risk as a=20
precaution for this reason; the threat not expected to persist past
18z Saturday.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6oqSrUoWKGqc9jpeU2_TgEW-NgvCN1IJYvktPyKHPvvQ= x1ILwtSqhYoOd1rqgw2jGqmex3DGkkCPN9ZZouSXqC5pygo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6oqSrUoWKGqc9jpeU2_TgEW-NgvCN1IJYvktPyKHPvvQ= x1ILwtSqhYoOd1rqgw2jGqmex3DGkkCPN9ZZouSX9Azh2_A$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6oqSrUoWKGqc9jpeU2_TgEW-NgvCN1IJYvktPyKHPvvQ= x1ILwtSqhYoOd1rqgw2jGqmex3DGkkCPN9ZZouSXygSJeSg$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 081530
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1030 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

...THERE ARE MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST & LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...16Z Outlook Update...
The ongoing forecast philosophy is generally on track. Minor
changes were made to the central Plains Marginal area to trim=20
behind an ongoing convective complex in that area. This complex is
moving quickly northeastward this morning, and flash flood
potential behind it has decreased substantially.

See the previous discussion below for more information.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

Midwest/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A strong shortwave preceding the incoming upper level trough is
expected to bring 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE into portions of the region
during the day on Thursday. The 00z NAM's 2000+ J/kg bulls eye in
KS/MO right at the beginning of the period appears unrealistic/too
high based on recent SPC mesoanalysis MU CAPE trends, though its
trailing instability appears more reasonable, reinforced by the 03z
RAP. The mesoscale guidance advertises small areas of a low risk
of 3"+ across portions of KS, MO, IL, IN, and eventually LA and MS
Thursday night/early Friday morning. While precipitable water
values are in the 1-1.25" range for northern areas and 1.5"+ range
for southern areas, the atmosphere should be well saturated. There
appears to be enough instability to realize local hourly amounts of
1.5"+ where a sufficient number of organized thunderstorms are
able to materialize. Right now, that appears to be the biggest
issue. While it has been dry lately, flash flood guidance values
are modest across much of the area, with 3 hour guidance closer to
3" for the Lower Mississippi Valley, 2.5" for portions of KS/MO,
and 2" for IL/IN. The guidance indicates that the heavy rainfall
should move through quickly, so local amounts of 2-3" within a
couple hours could be enough for isolated to widely scattered
issues, particularly in urban areas. This led to the introduction
of Marginal Risk areas for the areas mentioned above.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...

Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A positively tilted trough with minimal eastward progression due to
the parent cyclone's progression northeast will generate a broad
axis of ascent from the Mississippi Valley to points eastward with
a cold frontal progression slowly migrating east. An anomalously
moisture plume ahead of the trough, noteworthy for January and near
summer averages with a range of 1.50-1.75", will be accompanied by
500-1500 J/kg of MU CAPE. Ample shear for convective organization
is expected, with low- level convergence more or less fixed from
the Atchafalya Basin in LA into the southern Appalachians. The
guidance is wet, with local 4-7" totals forecast locally. The
guidance has shifted southwest,. which caused a southwest shift in
the risk areas.

This synoptic setup is classic for a flash flood prospect across
this region. Deep layer southwest flow should lead to cell
training, and enough effective bulk shear exists for mesocyclone
formation. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are possible here, which
would overwhelm urban environments. The 00z HREF for the first half
of the period advertised a 30-35% of 5"+ near Laurel MS, which if
it occurred within a few hours would overwhelm non-urban
environments as well. At the moment, this appears to be a high end
Slight Risk, but it wouldn't be surprising if a Moderate Risk
was considered as we get further inside the mesoscale guidance
window. The eastern bounds of the Marginal Risk area were
coordinated with the RNK/Blacksburg VA, GSP/Greer SC, and
FFC/Peachtree City GA forecast offices.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

Heavy rainfall early in the period is expected over what should be
at least partially saturated ground across portions of the
Southern Appalachians before heavy rainfall ejects into the
southern Mid- Atlantic States. Added a Marginal Risk as a
precaution for this reason; the threat not expected to persist past
18z Saturday.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4TZj8D8QbdcgwZDzvEI-GDXRS3OJz112P7i0earWxdQz= N5qKTImG1pa2l3CYkPnuuBMeipJ7ah8AzoEmjtIWldpkg34$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4TZj8D8QbdcgwZDzvEI-GDXRS3OJz112P7i0earWxdQz= N5qKTImG1pa2l3CYkPnuuBMeipJ7ah8AzoEmjtIW6mm4bwk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4TZj8D8QbdcgwZDzvEI-GDXRS3OJz112P7i0earWxdQz= N5qKTImG1pa2l3CYkPnuuBMeipJ7ah8AzoEmjtIWkJ4BYyY$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 081935
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

...THERE ARE MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST & LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...16Z Outlook Update...
The ongoing forecast philosophy is generally on track. Minor
changes were made to the central Plains Marginal area to trim
behind an ongoing convective complex in that area. This complex is
moving quickly northeastward this morning, and flash flood
potential behind it has decreased substantially.

See the previous discussion below for more information.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

Midwest/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A strong shortwave preceding the incoming upper level trough is
expected to bring 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE into portions of the region
during the day on Thursday. The 00z NAM's 2000+ J/kg bulls eye in
KS/MO right at the beginning of the period appears unrealistic/too
high based on recent SPC mesoanalysis MU CAPE trends, though its
trailing instability appears more reasonable, reinforced by the 03z
RAP. The mesoscale guidance advertises small areas of a low risk
of 3"+ across portions of KS, MO, IL, IN, and eventually LA and MS
Thursday night/early Friday morning. While precipitable water
values are in the 1-1.25" range for northern areas and 1.5"+ range
for southern areas, the atmosphere should be well saturated. There
appears to be enough instability to realize local hourly amounts of
1.5"+ where a sufficient number of organized thunderstorms are
able to materialize. Right now, that appears to be the biggest
issue. While it has been dry lately, flash flood guidance values
are modest across much of the area, with 3 hour guidance closer to
3" for the Lower Mississippi Valley, 2.5" for portions of KS/MO,
and 2" for IL/IN. The guidance indicates that the heavy rainfall
should move through quickly, so local amounts of 2-3" within a
couple hours could be enough for isolated to widely scattered
issues, particularly in urban areas. This led to the introduction
of Marginal Risk areas for the areas mentioned above.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...

20Z Update...
Following the general trend of the 12Z guidance, the outlook areas
extending from the lower Mississippi Valley to the southern
Appalachians were shifted a little south and east. A Slight Risk
was maintained from southeastern Louisiana to the southern
Appalachians, where neighborhood probabilities from the 12Z HREF
for amounts above 2 inches are 50 percent or greater. Within this
area, the HREF suggests the heaviest totals are most likely to
center from southeastern Louisiana to central Alabama, where high
(greater than 70 percent) probabilities for amounts over 3 inches,
and some 30-60 percent probabilities for amounts greater than 5=20
inches, are indicated.

Pereira

Previous Discussion...
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Appalachians...=20
A positively tilted trough with minimal eastward progression due=20
to the parent cyclone's progression northeast will generate a broad
axis of ascent from the Mississippi Valley to points eastward with
a cold frontal progression slowly migrating east. An anomalously=20
moisture plume ahead of the trough, noteworthy for January and near
summer averages with a range of 1.50-1.75", will be accompanied by
500-1500 J/kg of MU CAPE. Ample shear for convective organization=20
is expected, with low- level convergence more or less fixed from=20
the Atchafalya Basin in LA into the southern Appalachians. The=20
guidance is wet, with local 4-7" totals forecast locally. The=20
guidance has shifted southwest,. which caused a southwest shift in=20
the risk areas.

This synoptic setup is classic for a flash flood prospect across
this region. Deep layer southwest flow should lead to cell
training, and enough effective bulk shear exists for mesocyclone
formation. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are possible here, which
would overwhelm urban environments. The 00z HREF for the first half
of the period advertised a 30-35% of 5"+ near Laurel MS, which if
it occurred within a few hours would overwhelm non-urban
environments as well. At the moment, this appears to be a high end
Slight Risk, but it wouldn't be surprising if a Moderate Risk
was considered as we get further inside the mesoscale guidance
window. The eastern bounds of the Marginal Risk area were
coordinated with the RNK/Blacksburg VA, GSP/Greer SC, and
FFC/Peachtree City GA forecast offices.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

20Z Update...
No significant changes were made to the Marginal Risk area=20
centered over the southern Appalachians.

Pereira

Previous Discussion...
Heavy rainfall early in the period is expected over what should be
at least partially saturated ground across portions of the=20
Southern Appalachians before heavy rainfall ejects into the=20
southern Mid- Atlantic States. Added a Marginal Risk as a=20
precaution for this reason; the threat not expected to persist past
18z Saturday.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6fezlj-OjcauVuB605zq_-ZmqNec2mMKfAeWRqIOdmuk= d4v1y9vMOlF_epe0q6euaoNmBehKGIVUHXzxAjfKPgtooVE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6fezlj-OjcauVuB605zq_-ZmqNec2mMKfAeWRqIOdmuk= d4v1y9vMOlF_epe0q6euaoNmBehKGIVUHXzxAjfKeEZW9MU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6fezlj-OjcauVuB605zq_-ZmqNec2mMKfAeWRqIOdmuk= d4v1y9vMOlF_epe0q6euaoNmBehKGIVUHXzxAjfKa8ScvKE$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 090052
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
752 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

...THERE ARE MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST & LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...0100 UTC Update...
Two relatively targeted Marginal Risk areas (parts of the Midwest=20
and Lower MS Valley) remain generally on track for the overnight=20
hours. Both are considered 'low-end' Marginals, i.e. with the 40km=20 neighborhood probability of rainfall exceeding 1 or 3 hourly FFG is
closer to 5% than 15%. Deep-layer instability (or lack thereof),=20
even elevated, is the main inhibitor to flash flooding across the=20
Midwest Marginal Risk area, although some snowmelt and otherwise=20
low FFG values would offset somewhat. Farther south near the Gulf=20
Coast, there at least 250-500 J/Kg of MUCAPE would be available,=20
perhaps closer to 1000 J/Kg closer to the Gulf Coast. However, as=20
is the typical tradeoff this time of year, the soils farther south=20
(no snow cover nor frost depth) can absorb quite a bit more=20
rainfall before any runoff is generated.=20

Hurley

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...

20Z Update...
Following the general trend of the 12Z guidance, the outlook areas
extending from the lower Mississippi Valley to the southern
Appalachians were shifted a little south and east. A Slight Risk
was maintained from southeastern Louisiana to the southern
Appalachians, where neighborhood probabilities from the 12Z HREF
for amounts above 2 inches are 50 percent or greater. Within this
area, the HREF suggests the heaviest totals are most likely to
center from southeastern Louisiana to central Alabama, where high
(greater than 70 percent) probabilities for amounts over 3 inches,
and some 30-60 percent probabilities for amounts greater than 5
inches, are indicated.

Pereira

Previous Discussion...
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A positively tilted trough with minimal eastward progression due
to the parent cyclone's progression northeast will generate a broad
axis of ascent from the Mississippi Valley to points eastward with
a cold frontal progression slowly migrating east. An anomalously
moisture plume ahead of the trough, noteworthy for January and near
summer averages with a range of 1.50-1.75", will be accompanied by
500-1500 J/kg of MU CAPE. Ample shear for convective organization
is expected, with low- level convergence more or less fixed from
the Atchafalya Basin in LA into the southern Appalachians. The
guidance is wet, with local 4-7" totals forecast locally. The
guidance has shifted southwest,. which caused a southwest shift in
the risk areas.

This synoptic setup is classic for a flash flood prospect across
this region. Deep layer southwest flow should lead to cell
training, and enough effective bulk shear exists for mesocyclone
formation. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are possible here, which
would overwhelm urban environments. The 00z HREF for the first half
of the period advertised a 30-35% of 5"+ near Laurel MS, which if
it occurred within a few hours would overwhelm non-urban
environments as well. At the moment, this appears to be a high end
Slight Risk, but it wouldn't be surprising if a Moderate Risk
was considered as we get further inside the mesoscale guidance
window. The eastern bounds of the Marginal Risk area were
coordinated with the RNK/Blacksburg VA, GSP/Greer SC, and
FFC/Peachtree City GA forecast offices.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

20Z Update...
No significant changes were made to the Marginal Risk area
centered over the southern Appalachians.

Pereira

Previous Discussion...
Heavy rainfall early in the period is expected over what should be
at least partially saturated ground across portions of the
Southern Appalachians before heavy rainfall ejects into the
southern Mid- Atlantic States. Added a Marginal Risk as a
precaution for this reason; the threat not expected to persist past
18z Saturday.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6m6txmeB6trfgANzDYnfKBKlu3t_93bhJ7ZFtLPB78KW= Wa7wB0K_JYy4Y0DD1t-drhFHwvbpzoUoyI-LaD4-9Lvx5EA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6m6txmeB6trfgANzDYnfKBKlu3t_93bhJ7ZFtLPB78KW= Wa7wB0K_JYy4Y0DD1t-drhFHwvbpzoUoyI-LaD4-0B4ImAk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6m6txmeB6trfgANzDYnfKBKlu3t_93bhJ7ZFtLPB78KW= Wa7wB0K_JYy4Y0DD1t-drhFHwvbpzoUoyI-LaD4-kMCRM1Y$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 090752
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

The classic synoptic setup for a winter flash flooding event
continues to slowly adjust to the timing/orientation of the
upstream shortwave over the Southwest U.S. The very strong leading
cyclone across the Great Lakes will continue to zip along to the
east-northeast with well above normal (4 Standard Anomaly/99th=20
percentile) moisture and flux still streaming across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms are expected across the
Lower MS Valley as morning surge of Gulf air streams northward
becoming increasingly confluent/convergent well ahead of the
upstream synoptic front in the Plains.=20

The strong upstream base of the positive tilt trof will be
advancing throughout the day into the Plains, though the upper-
level jet streak also be expanding and strengthening across the
Ozark Plateau into the Ohio River Valley from 110kts to over 150kts
by the end of the forecast period. The trough will also be shearing
into the confluent, increasingly unidirectional low to mid-level
flow allowing for a deep southwest to northeast atmospheric river
from the western Gulf up the Lower Mississippi and through the
Tennessee River Valley into the southern Appalachians/Cumberland
Plateau through the majority of the day. While the low level flow
will be weaker than Thursday, 850-700mb 40-45kts and 1.5-1.75"
total PWat values will allow for high moisture flux convergence and
support efficient rainfall production.

As the trends have slowed the upstream shortwave, this allows for
greater flux of unstable air northward and forcing to
overlap/intersect with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across the Coastal
Plain reducing toward 500 J/kg near the southern TN border, pulsing
with northward surges as the shortwave lifts out. This will provide
enough ascent and low level shear for organized bands of
convection that will likely have training elements throughout the
day. Rain-rates of 1.5"/hr are probable though 00z Hi-Res CAMs
support occasional up-ticks to 2"+/hr locally. Combined with the
training profiles, 00z HREF shows solid 15-25% 3"/3hr probability
across Southern MS into far northeast LA, with nearly 50%
neighborhood probability of 5". As such, and in coordination with=20
local forecast offices, WPC is introducing a small Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for S MS and adjacent NE LA. It should be=20
noted, there is solid agreement within the guidance suite of 5-8"=20
total streaks but there is limited agreement in the placement=20
particularly west or east.

Thunderstorms will train, but as they move northeast into Middle to
eastern TN and northern and central AL, intensity and rainfall
totals are likely to diminish, given instability will be limited=20
to 200-300 J/kg. Yet, prolonged duration and sizable totals of 2-4"
are still possible and so the Slight Risk continues to be in place
downstream across much of AL, northern GA, and southeast TN.=20

Upstream, as the main forcing exits, a secondary axis of
convergence along instability/moisture gradient across eastern
Texas will produce additional, slightly more elevated
thunderstorms. Similar rates of 1.5" to 2"/hr are possible with
some repeating/training tracks across NW LA, though overall
duration and coverage should limit rainfall totals to 2-4" relative
to the Moderate Risk area further southeast. As such, the Slight
Risk was also expanded westward along the axis of best overall
model agreement.=20

Gallina

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

Heavy rainfall early in the period is expected over what should be
at least partially saturated ground across portions of the
Southern Appalachians before heavy rainfall ejects into the
southern Mid-Atlantic States. Added a Marginal Risk as a=20
precaution for this reason; the threat not expected to persist past
18z Saturday.

Roth/Gallina


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 (five) percent.=20

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4EP53CkbZZfXYEVFrWeFDFftkdO_L0ps9pa6o-jzdb11= UPyTzBfkecUbxka-iEXXSqj7zSQYowqTOh9TrFZnINF_jW8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4EP53CkbZZfXYEVFrWeFDFftkdO_L0ps9pa6o-jzdb11= UPyTzBfkecUbxka-iEXXSqj7zSQYowqTOh9TrFZnX70BIG0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4EP53CkbZZfXYEVFrWeFDFftkdO_L0ps9pa6o-jzdb11= UPyTzBfkecUbxka-iEXXSqj7zSQYowqTOh9TrFZnfZJnab0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 090754
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

..THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS=20
OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT LOUISIANA...

The classic synoptic setup for a winter flash flooding event
continues to slowly adjust to the timing/orientation of the
upstream shortwave over the Southwest U.S. The very strong leading
cyclone across the Great Lakes will continue to zip along to the
east-northeast with well above normal (4 Standard Anomaly/99th
percentile) moisture and flux still streaming across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms are expected across the
Lower MS Valley as morning surge of Gulf air streams northward
becoming increasingly confluent/convergent well ahead of the
upstream synoptic front in the Plains.

The strong upstream base of the positive tilt trof will be
advancing throughout the day into the Plains, though the upper-
level jet streak also be expanding and strengthening across the
Ozark Plateau into the Ohio River Valley from 110kts to over 150kts
by the end of the forecast period. The trough will also be shearing
into the confluent, increasingly unidirectional low to mid-level
flow allowing for a deep southwest to northeast atmospheric river
from the western Gulf up the Lower Mississippi and through the
Tennessee River Valley into the southern Appalachians/Cumberland
Plateau through the majority of the day. While the low level flow
will be weaker than Thursday, 850-700mb 40-45kts and 1.5-1.75"
total PWat values will allow for high moisture flux convergence and
support efficient rainfall production.

As the trends have slowed the upstream shortwave, this allows for
greater flux of unstable air northward and forcing to
overlap/intersect with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across the Coastal
Plain reducing toward 500 J/kg near the southern TN border, pulsing
with northward surges as the shortwave lifts out. This will provide
enough ascent and low level shear for organized bands of
convection that will likely have training elements throughout the
day. Rain-rates of 1.5"/hr are probable though 00z Hi-Res CAMs
support occasional up-ticks to 2"+/hr locally. Combined with the
training profiles, 00z HREF shows solid 15-25% 3"/3hr probability
across Southern MS into far northeast LA, with nearly 50%
neighborhood probability of 5". As such, and in coordination with
local forecast offices, WPC is introducing a small Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for S MS and adjacent NE LA. It should be
noted, there is solid agreement within the guidance suite of 5-8"
total streaks but there is limited agreement in the placement
particularly west or east.

Thunderstorms will train, but as they move northeast into Middle to
eastern TN and northern and central AL, intensity and rainfall
totals are likely to diminish, given instability will be limited
to 200-300 J/kg. Yet, prolonged duration and sizable totals of 2-4"
are still possible and so the Slight Risk continues to be in place
downstream across much of AL, northern GA, and southeast TN.

Upstream, as the main forcing exits, a secondary axis of
convergence along instability/moisture gradient across eastern
Texas will produce additional, slightly more elevated
thunderstorms. Similar rates of 1.5" to 2"/hr are possible with
some repeating/training tracks across NW LA, though overall
duration and coverage should limit rainfall totals to 2-4" relative
to the Moderate Risk area further southeast. As such, the Slight
Risk was also expanded westward along the axis of best overall
model agreement.

Gallina

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

Heavy rainfall early in the period is expected over what should be
at least partially saturated ground across portions of the
Southern Appalachians before heavy rainfall ejects into the
southern Mid-Atlantic States. Added a Marginal Risk as a
precaution for this reason; the threat not expected to persist past
18z Saturday.

Roth/Gallina


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 (five) percent.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_E_lOLMC5GN9Mi_757UHPiWlULfLX1VnUnVZyIEs6MHB= BX7k3nltudXzLwIFtVh7IRzRgSexmsr-7lSs-YRcIHmAtZg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_E_lOLMC5GN9Mi_757UHPiWlULfLX1VnUnVZyIEs6MHB= BX7k3nltudXzLwIFtVh7IRzRgSexmsr-7lSs-YRchHx9xQE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_E_lOLMC5GN9Mi_757UHPiWlULfLX1VnUnVZyIEs6MHB= BX7k3nltudXzLwIFtVh7IRzRgSexmsr-7lSs-YRcksJkias$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 091559
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1059 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

..THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT LOUISIANA...

...16Z update...

The OSPO Advected LPW product showed the axis of anomalous moisture
in place over the Lower Mississippi Valley (2 to 4 standard
deviations above the mean) with origins in the middle and upper=20
levels to the tropical eastern Pacific, while low level moisture=20
was originating from the Gulf. The dual connection of moisture has
resulted in higher end rainfall events in the past so several of
the 12Z CAMs showing 7+ inches over the 24 hour window ending
Saturday morning look believable.=20

Ongoing axes of heavy rain were observed along the eastern LA/MS=20
border between Baton Rouge and Hattiesburg early this morning with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and 2 to 4 inches through just
prior to 16Z. Similar potential will exist over the next 12-24=20
hours with the likelihood for several training axes to develop
across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The greatest probability of
overlap of heavy rainfall axes looks to be within the Moderate Risk
which was expanded northeastward into western Alabama where 24 hour
rainfall of at least 3 to 6 inches looks likely.

Other adjustments for the 16Z update included a small southwestern
shift to the Marginal, Slight and 25% contour across eastern Texas
into Louisiana, in line with the latest 12Z HREF.

Otto

...previous discussion follows...


The classic synoptic setup for a winter flash flooding event
continues to slowly adjust to the timing/orientation of the
upstream shortwave over the Southwest U.S. The very strong leading
cyclone across the Great Lakes will continue to zip along to the
east-northeast with well above normal (4 Standard Anomaly/99th
percentile) moisture and flux still streaming across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms are expected across the
Lower MS Valley as morning surge of Gulf air streams northward
becoming increasingly confluent/convergent well ahead of the
upstream synoptic front in the Plains.

The strong upstream base of the positive tilt trof will be
advancing throughout the day into the Plains, though the upper-
level jet streak also be expanding and strengthening across the
Ozark Plateau into the Ohio River Valley from 110kts to over 150kts
by the end of the forecast period. The trough will also be shearing
into the confluent, increasingly unidirectional low to mid-level
flow allowing for a deep southwest to northeast atmospheric river
from the western Gulf up the Lower Mississippi and through the
Tennessee River Valley into the southern Appalachians/Cumberland
Plateau through the majority of the day. While the low level flow
will be weaker than Thursday, 850-700mb 40-45kts and 1.5-1.75"
total PWat values will allow for high moisture flux convergence and
support efficient rainfall production.

As the trends have slowed the upstream shortwave, this allows for
greater flux of unstable air northward and forcing to
overlap/intersect with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across the Coastal
Plain reducing toward 500 J/kg near the southern TN border, pulsing
with northward surges as the shortwave lifts out. This will provide
enough ascent and low level shear for organized bands of
convection that will likely have training elements throughout the
day. Rain-rates of 1.5"/hr are probable though 00z Hi-Res CAMs
support occasional up-ticks to 2"+/hr locally. Combined with the
training profiles, 00z HREF shows solid 15-25% 3"/3hr probability
across Southern MS into far northeast LA, with nearly 50%
neighborhood probability of 5". As such, and in coordination with
local forecast offices, WPC is introducing a small Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for S MS and adjacent NE LA. It should be
noted, there is solid agreement within the guidance suite of 5-8"
total streaks but there is limited agreement in the placement
particularly west or east.

Thunderstorms will train, but as they move northeast into Middle to
eastern TN and northern and central AL, intensity and rainfall
totals are likely to diminish, given instability will be limited
to 200-300 J/kg. Yet, prolonged duration and sizable totals of 2-4"
are still possible and so the Slight Risk continues to be in place
downstream across much of AL, northern GA, and southeast TN.

Upstream, as the main forcing exits, a secondary axis of
convergence along instability/moisture gradient across eastern
Texas will produce additional, slightly more elevated
thunderstorms. Similar rates of 1.5" to 2"/hr are possible with
some repeating/training tracks across NW LA, though overall
duration and coverage should limit rainfall totals to 2-4" relative
to the Moderate Risk area further southeast. As such, the Slight
Risk was also expanded westward along the axis of best overall
model agreement.

Gallina

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

Heavy rainfall early in the period is expected over what should be
at least partially saturated ground across portions of the
Southern Appalachians before heavy rainfall ejects into the
southern Mid-Atlantic States. Added a Marginal Risk as a
precaution for this reason; the threat not expected to persist past
18z Saturday.

Roth/Gallina


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 (five) percent.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6D4fSAB4AH7nRT5_VHxZS8MZePA6xxBJG-6BZFpe4SMl= coSVrguphH3I5DMFHvCD4iVmny1OsKR4bx_5Fo-Zrn0yQx8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6D4fSAB4AH7nRT5_VHxZS8MZePA6xxBJG-6BZFpe4SMl= coSVrguphH3I5DMFHvCD4iVmny1OsKR4bx_5Fo-Z1vIV0pg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6D4fSAB4AH7nRT5_VHxZS8MZePA6xxBJG-6BZFpe4SMl= coSVrguphH3I5DMFHvCD4iVmny1OsKR4bx_5Fo-ZbpiUcD4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 091915
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Jan 09 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

..THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT LOUISIANA...

...16Z update...

The OSPO Advected LPW product showed the axis of anomalous moisture
in place over the Lower Mississippi Valley (2 to 4 standard
deviations above the mean) with origins in the middle and upper
levels to the tropical eastern Pacific, while low level moisture
was originating from the Gulf. The dual connection of moisture has
resulted in higher end rainfall events in the past so several of
the 12Z CAMs showing 7+ inches over the 24 hour window ending
Saturday morning look believable.

Ongoing axes of heavy rain were observed along the eastern LA/MS
border between Baton Rouge and Hattiesburg early this morning with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and 2 to 4 inches through just
prior to 16Z. Similar potential will exist over the next 12-24
hours with the likelihood for several training axes to develop
across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The greatest probability of
overlap of heavy rainfall axes looks to be within the Moderate Risk
which was expanded northeastward into western Alabama where 24 hour
rainfall of at least 3 to 6 inches looks likely.

Other adjustments for the 16Z update included a small southwestern
shift to the Marginal, Slight and 25% contour across eastern Texas
into Louisiana, in line with the latest 12Z HREF.

Otto

...previous discussion follows...


The classic synoptic setup for a winter flash flooding event
continues to slowly adjust to the timing/orientation of the
upstream shortwave over the Southwest U.S. The very strong leading
cyclone across the Great Lakes will continue to zip along to the
east-northeast with well above normal (4 Standard Anomaly/99th
percentile) moisture and flux still streaming across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms are expected across the
Lower MS Valley as morning surge of Gulf air streams northward
becoming increasingly confluent/convergent well ahead of the
upstream synoptic front in the Plains.

The strong upstream base of the positive tilt trof will be
advancing throughout the day into the Plains, though the upper-
level jet streak also be expanding and strengthening across the
Ozark Plateau into the Ohio River Valley from 110kts to over 150kts
by the end of the forecast period. The trough will also be shearing
into the confluent, increasingly unidirectional low to mid-level
flow allowing for a deep southwest to northeast atmospheric river
from the western Gulf up the Lower Mississippi and through the
Tennessee River Valley into the southern Appalachians/Cumberland
Plateau through the majority of the day. While the low level flow
will be weaker than Thursday, 850-700mb 40-45kts and 1.5-1.75"
total PWat values will allow for high moisture flux convergence and
support efficient rainfall production.

As the trends have slowed the upstream shortwave, this allows for
greater flux of unstable air northward and forcing to
overlap/intersect with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across the Coastal
Plain reducing toward 500 J/kg near the southern TN border, pulsing
with northward surges as the shortwave lifts out. This will provide
enough ascent and low level shear for organized bands of
convection that will likely have training elements throughout the
day. Rain-rates of 1.5"/hr are probable though 00z Hi-Res CAMs
support occasional up-ticks to 2"+/hr locally. Combined with the
training profiles, 00z HREF shows solid 15-25% 3"/3hr probability
across Southern MS into far northeast LA, with nearly 50%
neighborhood probability of 5". As such, and in coordination with
local forecast offices, WPC is introducing a small Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for S MS and adjacent NE LA. It should be
noted, there is solid agreement within the guidance suite of 5-8"
total streaks but there is limited agreement in the placement
particularly west or east.

Thunderstorms will train, but as they move northeast into Middle to
eastern TN and northern and central AL, intensity and rainfall
totals are likely to diminish, given instability will be limited
to 200-300 J/kg. Yet, prolonged duration and sizable totals of 2-4"
are still possible and so the Slight Risk continues to be in place
downstream across much of AL, northern GA, and southeast TN.

Upstream, as the main forcing exits, a secondary axis of
convergence along instability/moisture gradient across eastern
Texas will produce additional, slightly more elevated
thunderstorms. Similar rates of 1.5" to 2"/hr are possible with
some repeating/training tracks across NW LA, though overall
duration and coverage should limit rainfall totals to 2-4" relative
to the Moderate Risk area further southeast. As such, the Slight
Risk was also expanded westward along the axis of best overall
model agreement.

Gallina

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

20Z Update...
No significant changes were made to the Marginal Risk area.

Pereira

Previous Discussion...
Heavy rainfall early in the period is expected over what should be
at least partially saturated ground across portions of the
Southern Appalachians before heavy rainfall ejects into the
southern Mid-Atlantic States. Added a Marginal Risk as a
precaution for this reason; the threat not expected to persist past
18z Saturday.

Roth/Gallina


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 (five) percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5K9mWYMUttFtzsX6SvIglCO7-AZoukmcYzz4h9Nr2Exn= _CTXoFQYXV9XT0C0EbnMlgUIJEqsHeFWFCfy6KkLwIUrGzs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5K9mWYMUttFtzsX6SvIglCO7-AZoukmcYzz4h9Nr2Exn= _CTXoFQYXV9XT0C0EbnMlgUIJEqsHeFWFCfy6KkLHB25TKM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5K9mWYMUttFtzsX6SvIglCO7-AZoukmcYzz4h9Nr2Exn= _CTXoFQYXV9XT0C0EbnMlgUIJEqsHeFWFCfy6KkLUauQozI$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS30 KWBC 100042
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
742 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026

..THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT LOUISIANA...

...0100 UTC Update...
Tightened the gradient of the outlook areas over northern-northeast
sections given the continued deep-layer stability and thus
mitigated rainfall rates. However, we did stretch the Moderate Risk
a bit more downstream into central AL, based on the recent string
of HRRR and RRFS output. 2300 UTC HRRR in particular shows pockets
of 4-7" of additional rainfall through 12Z across parts of central
AL, as a relatively narrow axis of 1000 J/Kg MUCAPE nudges into
this area ahead of a sharpening cold front with the increasing
right-entrance region upper level forcing (enhanced low-level
FGEN). Observed PWATs are already aoa 1.75" as of 00Z (including
BMX); the RAP continues to show these values peaking aoa 2.00"
overnight, especially within more widespread/organized areas of
deep convection.

Hurley

Previous discussion below...


The classic synoptic setup for a winter flash flooding event
continues to slowly adjust to the timing/orientation of the
upstream shortwave over the Southwest U.S. The very strong leading
cyclone across the Great Lakes will continue to zip along to the
east-northeast with well above normal (4 Standard Anomaly/99th
percentile) moisture and flux still streaming across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms are expected across the
Lower MS Valley as morning surge of Gulf air streams northward
becoming increasingly confluent/convergent well ahead of the
upstream synoptic front in the Plains.

The strong upstream base of the positive tilt trof will be
advancing throughout the day into the Plains, though the upper-
level jet streak also be expanding and strengthening across the
Ozark Plateau into the Ohio River Valley from 110kts to over 150kts
by the end of the forecast period. The trough will also be shearing
into the confluent, increasingly unidirectional low to mid-level
flow allowing for a deep southwest to northeast atmospheric river
from the western Gulf up the Lower Mississippi and through the
Tennessee River Valley into the southern Appalachians/Cumberland
Plateau through the majority of the day. While the low level flow
will be weaker than Thursday, 850-700mb 40-45kts and 1.5-1.75"
total PWat values will allow for high moisture flux convergence and
support efficient rainfall production.

As the trends have slowed the upstream shortwave, this allows for
greater flux of unstable air northward and forcing to
overlap/intersect with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across the Coastal
Plain reducing toward 500 J/kg near the southern TN border, pulsing
with northward surges as the shortwave lifts out. This will provide
enough ascent and low level shear for organized bands of
convection that will likely have training elements throughout the
day. Rain-rates of 1.5"/hr are probable though 00z Hi-Res CAMs
support occasional up-ticks to 2"+/hr locally. Combined with the
training profiles, 00z HREF shows solid 15-25% 3"/3hr probability
across Southern MS into far northeast LA, with nearly 50%
neighborhood probability of 5". As such, and in coordination with
local forecast offices, WPC is introducing a small Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for S MS and adjacent NE LA. It should be
noted, there is solid agreement within the guidance suite of 5-8"
total streaks but there is limited agreement in the placement
particularly west or east.

Thunderstorms will train, but as they move northeast into Middle to
eastern TN and northern and central AL, intensity and rainfall
totals are likely to diminish, given instability will be limited
to 200-300 J/kg. Yet, prolonged duration and sizable totals of 2-4"
are still possible and so the Slight Risk continues to be in place
downstream across much of AL, northern GA, and southeast TN.

Upstream, as the main forcing exits, a secondary axis of
convergence along instability/moisture gradient across eastern
Texas will produce additional, slightly more elevated
thunderstorms. Similar rates of 1.5" to 2"/hr are possible with
some repeating/training tracks across NW LA, though overall
duration and coverage should limit rainfall totals to 2-4" relative
to the Moderate Risk area further southeast. As such, the Slight
Risk was also expanded westward along the axis of best overall
model agreement.

Gallina

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

20Z Update...
No significant changes were made to the Marginal Risk area.

Pereira

Previous Discussion...
Heavy rainfall early in the period is expected over what should be
at least partially saturated ground across portions of the
Southern Appalachians before heavy rainfall ejects into the
southern Mid-Atlantic States. Added a Marginal Risk as a
precaution for this reason; the threat not expected to persist past
18z Saturday.

Roth/Gallina


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 (five) percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7G2IGghI9rQ1iTNU67AIx1ZfsO6bSVi5iBb--Rezl4Go= DIbPM6VdXSwIusOViB8vjZEwBdFZ0Tqx-bKaUr59x9T32c0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7G2IGghI9rQ1iTNU67AIx1ZfsO6bSVi5iBb--Rezl4Go= DIbPM6VdXSwIusOViB8vjZEwBdFZ0Tqx-bKaUr59oRrUCJI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7G2IGghI9rQ1iTNU67AIx1ZfsO6bSVi5iBb--Rezl4Go= DIbPM6VdXSwIusOViB8vjZEwBdFZ0Tqx-bKaUr591N00RhU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
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FOUS30 KWBC 100816
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS=20
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

Heavy rainfall should be on-goingacross portions of the Southern
Appalachians as the Day 1 period. Some of that rainfall will be=20
falling on at least partially saturated ground which has the
potential to produce flash flooding. The expectation is that the
threat for excessive rainfall should wane by 18Z today as the area
of rain moves out of the region.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_df-xyYPlWMJSlSt_7YYuQvb-C1I10Iztk9KoD-V65Tt= KawrtZh9VmIjuGBoXkchu6g3K1Bhgj6w-lVp8mY_RfiIBLc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_df-xyYPlWMJSlSt_7YYuQvb-C1I10Iztk9KoD-V65Tt= KawrtZh9VmIjuGBoXkchu6g3K1Bhgj6w-lVp8mY_QE8DQis$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_df-xyYPlWMJSlSt_7YYuQvb-C1I10Iztk9KoD-V65Tt= KawrtZh9VmIjuGBoXkchu6g3K1Bhgj6w-lVp8mY_0PUcWu4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
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FOUS30 KWBC 101529
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1029 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST...

...16Z Outlook Update...
Reference recently issued Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0014
for short-term details on flash flood potential from far southeast
Louisiana northeastward to western Georgia. Main change to the
outlook is to trim on the western and northern edges of the
Marginal Risk area where most of the risk of deep convection has
ended for the day. Flash flood potential will continue along a
linear mesoscale convective complex moving eastward across the
region. Some southeastward expansion of the Marginal was made in
southeastern Alabama given potential for convection to linger
through the afternoon hours - although the overall risk of flash
flooding should continue to become progressively more isolated with
time and eastward extent.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

Update:

Expanded the Marginal Risk area southwest from the initial issuance
based on radar and satellite trends suggesting the risk of
excessive rainfall will persist beyond 12Z. Confined the expanded
Marginal risk along the axis of highest dew[point ahead of a cold
front moving eastward. Signals still suggest a downward trend
fairly early in the day. For additional details...refer to WPC
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0013.

Bann

Previous Discussion...

Heavy rainfall should be on-goingacross portions of the Southern
Appalachians as the Day 1 period. Some of that rainfall will be
falling on at least partially saturated ground which has the
potential to produce flash flooding. The expectation is that the
threat for excessive rainfall should wane by 18Z today as the area
of rain moves out of the region.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_GfrgrSUdYeIHd1E76e7g4-7WWWXhshzLClGKkISKRsq= JEVVLHOw-7zsDqOEUllrfskgZBg1EHn9wrRjCTJZ_uYAQNk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_GfrgrSUdYeIHd1E76e7g4-7WWWXhshzLClGKkISKRsq= JEVVLHOw-7zsDqOEUllrfskgZBg1EHn9wrRjCTJZNnjelwY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_GfrgrSUdYeIHd1E76e7g4-7WWWXhshzLClGKkISKRsq= JEVVLHOw-7zsDqOEUllrfskgZBg1EHn9wrRjCTJZu13NX0E$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
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FOUS30 KWBC 101805
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST...

...16Z Outlook Update...
Reference recently issued Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0014
for short-term details on flash flood potential from far southeast
Louisiana northeastward to western Georgia. Main change to the
outlook is to trim on the western and northern edges of the
Marginal Risk area where most of the risk of deep convection has
ended for the day. Flash flood potential will continue along a
linear mesoscale convective complex moving eastward across the
region. Some southeastward expansion of the Marginal was made in
southeastern Alabama given potential for convection to linger
through the afternoon hours - although the overall risk of flash
flooding should continue to become progressively more isolated with
time and eastward extent.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

Update:

Expanded the Marginal Risk area southwest from the initial issuance
based on radar and satellite trends suggesting the risk of
excessive rainfall will persist beyond 12Z. Confined the expanded
Marginal risk along the axis of highest dew[point ahead of a cold
front moving eastward. Signals still suggest a downward trend
fairly early in the day. For additional details...refer to WPC
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0013.

Bann

Previous Discussion...

Heavy rainfall should be on-goingacross portions of the Southern
Appalachians as the Day 1 period. Some of that rainfall will be
falling on at least partially saturated ground which has the
potential to produce flash flooding. The expectation is that the
threat for excessive rainfall should wane by 18Z today as the area
of rain moves out of the region.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6cTeHj4W1BW-ho2-w-iUIpkfDQiAXz1uiP7pjPbXK2Ty= 4EcS2suCDgBiQ5p73BnYju4IjFlNQxW5uhvU07L__m4I7FM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6cTeHj4W1BW-ho2-w-iUIpkfDQiAXz1uiP7pjPbXK2Ty= 4EcS2suCDgBiQ5p73BnYju4IjFlNQxW5uhvU07L_DqBITjg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6cTeHj4W1BW-ho2-w-iUIpkfDQiAXz1uiP7pjPbXK2Ty= 4EcS2suCDgBiQ5p73BnYju4IjFlNQxW5uhvU07L_pjxGKYo$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
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FOUS30 KWBC 110039
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
739 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5NV3U53S57jHQgrTMGO_oKGKKx_GqFqx3FqgZ5-V1PJ7= Q0GnMlCbePkjCUg99-Z2ZunICcIOp217A42bfXIFkUrPQms$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5NV3U53S57jHQgrTMGO_oKGKKx_GqFqx3FqgZ5-V1PJ7= Q0GnMlCbePkjCUg99-Z2ZunICcIOp217A42bfXIFfTLzi3A$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5NV3U53S57jHQgrTMGO_oKGKKx_GqFqx3FqgZ5-V1PJ7= Q0GnMlCbePkjCUg99-Z2ZunICcIOp217A42bfXIFZ6AYbcg$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
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FOUS30 KWBC 110716
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4rOeYGGbWbDB_0fHWU2CqGx1IqNxe2GNzHarHIhaV487= 1mdcQxpSZIyxfw-BbyQG3ilQhaOG1Znj7a7aViptwTHXJT0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4rOeYGGbWbDB_0fHWU2CqGx1IqNxe2GNzHarHIhaV487= 1mdcQxpSZIyxfw-BbyQG3ilQhaOG1Znj7a7aViptfzWHZ4E$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4rOeYGGbWbDB_0fHWU2CqGx1IqNxe2GNzHarHIhaV487= 1mdcQxpSZIyxfw-BbyQG3ilQhaOG1Znj7a7aVipt6F6uY7o$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
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FOUS30 KWBC 111519
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1019 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina/Orrison

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9O5i9XC4HHQgErmopsUYPkgrD-U_Ya2ljsIKadoZi1_U= esZUNpGFe66xXgimkK9Ii8Lh28AyIQQDh-QaYDXGtyLBSV8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9O5i9XC4HHQgErmopsUYPkgrD-U_Ya2ljsIKadoZi1_U= esZUNpGFe66xXgimkK9Ii8Lh28AyIQQDh-QaYDXGtTAiQ7w$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9O5i9XC4HHQgErmopsUYPkgrD-U_Ya2ljsIKadoZi1_U= esZUNpGFe66xXgimkK9Ii8Lh28AyIQQDh-QaYDXGWsgK-80$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
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FOUS30 KWBC 111841
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
141 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina/Orrison

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5BB0ZC1c4mYC3XdwvYrxlq5HLTDqc2WsF4FC2aYZf7DT= _HCtrgImjvr9PTzm90MirNLo0ojeeQ_YIXq6llunSMODsxU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5BB0ZC1c4mYC3XdwvYrxlq5HLTDqc2WsF4FC2aYZf7DT= _HCtrgImjvr9PTzm90MirNLo0ojeeQ_YIXq6llunciCvsbk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5BB0ZC1c4mYC3XdwvYrxlq5HLTDqc2WsF4FC2aYZf7DT= _HCtrgImjvr9PTzm90MirNLo0ojeeQ_YIXq6llun3D9aln0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
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FOUS30 KWBC 120015
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9mjGd5jZ-uUqJY1EN4LcZ-PpAD6hHQpyhXo5u17oO0vm= gdY5Vy4govW342ykYGisfZ-b5FzxdkMQTPcwGeXUqsHZpSo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9mjGd5jZ-uUqJY1EN4LcZ-PpAD6hHQpyhXo5u17oO0vm= gdY5Vy4govW342ykYGisfZ-b5FzxdkMQTPcwGeXUcvhhfys$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9mjGd5jZ-uUqJY1EN4LcZ-PpAD6hHQpyhXo5u17oO0vm= gdY5Vy4govW342ykYGisfZ-b5FzxdkMQTPcwGeXUY_TGIvg$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
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FOUS30 KWBC 120711
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7rznxoE15UL0q2B477J8ZigAwsRVT-DGCLdAcEwgglMz= jLRgCTotYn3YXJi904lwFuWaIwRncnYeYaS7_w04ULTf-UI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7rznxoE15UL0q2B477J8ZigAwsRVT-DGCLdAcEwgglMz= jLRgCTotYn3YXJi904lwFuWaIwRncnYeYaS7_w047ggFqrM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7rznxoE15UL0q2B477J8ZigAwsRVT-DGCLdAcEwgglMz= jLRgCTotYn3YXJi904lwFuWaIwRncnYeYaS7_w04XdBAvN8$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 121555
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina/Orrison

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!57OV_4AaHl28Iom5icb1nkJbpXRkYqoQQPfig5s2aC_A= WCw6V9QS8KoYO_GqYzc1fKp_EQwBjTTQeeALusDJ5kYh8cY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!57OV_4AaHl28Iom5icb1nkJbpXRkYqoQQPfig5s2aC_A= WCw6V9QS8KoYO_GqYzc1fKp_EQwBjTTQeeALusDJFLTzEtc$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!57OV_4AaHl28Iom5icb1nkJbpXRkYqoQQPfig5s2aC_A= WCw6V9QS8KoYO_GqYzc1fKp_EQwBjTTQeeALusDJ-lmP3gs$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 121734
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina/Orrison

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8DboULmixBk_N8PMKizhvRWT5r_go7iodr8Uj4rRbhCa= 1eSWj844m61P4VFVj28tvY2TqRFEUSW5CPfUDgGB6MpOHKI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8DboULmixBk_N8PMKizhvRWT5r_go7iodr8Uj4rRbhCa= 1eSWj844m61P4VFVj28tvY2TqRFEUSW5CPfUDgGBwNIXhvw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8DboULmixBk_N8PMKizhvRWT5r_go7iodr8Uj4rRbhCa= 1eSWj844m61P4VFVj28tvY2TqRFEUSW5CPfUDgGBITynaWU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 130026
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
726 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6aHFiN3VD9ymqtKjOvhjK5rbH2SfkPrlUrdK0wwhXAiS= haOqHYPA_T70U1iNlteDCTfOLoCCwsUsveez6svbVzMo8AA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6aHFiN3VD9ymqtKjOvhjK5rbH2SfkPrlUrdK0wwhXAiS= haOqHYPA_T70U1iNlteDCTfOLoCCwsUsveez6svbxuaaoVg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6aHFiN3VD9ymqtKjOvhjK5rbH2SfkPrlUrdK0wwhXAiS= haOqHYPA_T70U1iNlteDCTfOLoCCwsUsveez6svbNNphasI$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 130719
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5T9fo4Q3GvbNSx1Hpt9FEdJIdCAWIcnP-PHA1oqSuwRe= K84I9rshGY3SXaZ7ZUK3e9pxTgmrso2WNzCU0WWxoDqPBEs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5T9fo4Q3GvbNSx1Hpt9FEdJIdCAWIcnP-PHA1oqSuwRe= K84I9rshGY3SXaZ7ZUK3e9pxTgmrso2WNzCU0WWx8Sl7-Zk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5T9fo4Q3GvbNSx1Hpt9FEdJIdCAWIcnP-PHA1oqSuwRe= K84I9rshGY3SXaZ7ZUK3e9pxTgmrso2WNzCU0WWx8KUeNDY$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 131551
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1051 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

Recent Doppler radar imagery from Miami is indicating a nearly
stationary area of thunderstorms south of Key Biscayne, and just
east of Biscayne National Park as a result of a compact mesoscale
convective vortex. Moderate showers are ongoing across portions of
the Miami-Dade metro area, with some heavier rainfall possible at=20
times south of the city. However, the majority of the CAM guidance=20
supports the core of this convection remaining over the coastal=20
waters through this afternoon, and therefore no new risk areas are=20
currently warranted at this time. Should things evolve differently
than currently expected, a special ERO issuance could be needed=20
later today.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Qm9RYZoqPYNRoaF6WMgmGUAuPLfP1BJ5nJoW7hOFqKs= qWM8BK_JSExI1PJUjukE7MTNf_suG3J-_UjB1q5Fuc_w190$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Qm9RYZoqPYNRoaF6WMgmGUAuPLfP1BJ5nJoW7hOFqKs= qWM8BK_JSExI1PJUjukE7MTNf_suG3J-_UjB1q5FhhXUPZ8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Qm9RYZoqPYNRoaF6WMgmGUAuPLfP1BJ5nJoW7hOFqKs= qWM8BK_JSExI1PJUjukE7MTNf_suG3J-_UjB1q5FEjtBhv4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 131951
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

Recent Doppler radar imagery from Miami is indicating a nearly
stationary area of thunderstorms south of Key Biscayne, and just
east of Biscayne National Park as a result of a compact mesoscale
convective vortex. Moderate showers are ongoing across portions of
the Miami-Dade metro area, with some heavier rainfall possible at
times south of the city. However, the majority of the CAM guidance
supports the core of this convection remaining over the coastal
waters through this afternoon, and therefore no new risk areas are
currently warranted at this time. Should things evolve differently
than currently expected, a special ERO issuance could be needed
later today.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5RNf9bThGnd1VYl4434Cl22Mwp7RdyDS4Iw60NcHI7cn= KkLM-v_DJHdyxwUPIIPQhZHfATobZd00rqOR6mc-jK2o-FY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5RNf9bThGnd1VYl4434Cl22Mwp7RdyDS4Iw60NcHI7cn= KkLM-v_DJHdyxwUPIIPQhZHfATobZd00rqOR6mc-aVsmCrw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5RNf9bThGnd1VYl4434Cl22Mwp7RdyDS4Iw60NcHI7cn= KkLM-v_DJHdyxwUPIIPQhZHfATobZd00rqOR6mc-S8Di9mc$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 140000
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!73O4SJSGakHcK-pliuZYcJfeuMfWFUVWroM3dED9yI8a= D-ED7O0_sb5doxpuY_imv6Ggx0ID84ltDqgluYThPf9p5QA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!73O4SJSGakHcK-pliuZYcJfeuMfWFUVWroM3dED9yI8a= D-ED7O0_sb5doxpuY_imv6Ggx0ID84ltDqgluYThAaNTikM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!73O4SJSGakHcK-pliuZYcJfeuMfWFUVWroM3dED9yI8a= D-ED7O0_sb5doxpuY_imv6Ggx0ID84ltDqgluYTh3xX9R1A$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 140719
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71B42LUOOdb8ZuaUsiMAYfUtS5ufYn-csh6qmkETOemU= k31-BGzcUjWqbGrPdpjsbQblfVVhASsV3GrpDqNmfWwX3Ok$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71B42LUOOdb8ZuaUsiMAYfUtS5ufYn-csh6qmkETOemU= k31-BGzcUjWqbGrPdpjsbQblfVVhASsV3GrpDqNmZICEKCU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71B42LUOOdb8ZuaUsiMAYfUtS5ufYn-csh6qmkETOemU= k31-BGzcUjWqbGrPdpjsbQblfVVhASsV3GrpDqNmA85LYZM$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 141536
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1036 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto

Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7cHtKhP-hJNOLPRyYAkKAS5zR5d0mWh_nyAaZKjB5DkL= eJiiJS53oUg8oaH-rNXft9Bz2Vuc5e1cmohvzjOccNn14zA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7cHtKhP-hJNOLPRyYAkKAS5zR5d0mWh_nyAaZKjB5DkL= eJiiJS53oUg8oaH-rNXft9Bz2Vuc5e1cmohvzjOcN3WpqKE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7cHtKhP-hJNOLPRyYAkKAS5zR5d0mWh_nyAaZKjB5DkL= eJiiJS53oUg8oaH-rNXft9Bz2Vuc5e1cmohvzjOclHCCNRE$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 142003
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto

Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7xqoosI6yzn6cXWzOVICHJ5MF3W0IhtV6MuRxvhFoU8o= -HZ0qU2LGaYjCYgrmZtyGsJaVh_8ctArq2PupUqsxizRfww$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7xqoosI6yzn6cXWzOVICHJ5MF3W0IhtV6MuRxvhFoU8o= -HZ0qU2LGaYjCYgrmZtyGsJaVh_8ctArq2PupUqsZ8yRwrc$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7xqoosI6yzn6cXWzOVICHJ5MF3W0IhtV6MuRxvhFoU8o= -HZ0qU2LGaYjCYgrmZtyGsJaVh_8ctArq2PupUqs4irlHqc$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 150017
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
717 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

...01Z Update...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

...2030Z Update...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026

...2030Z Update...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7elJQ-nRe2cqghsnjpfyWcdXR82kBA26Avuvu7AdLWzx= g0kWKV7uxY1hoIp_1tol-s1SgyOAdFUl_veLVRxn8Qa-PPM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7elJQ-nRe2cqghsnjpfyWcdXR82kBA26Avuvu7AdLWzx= g0kWKV7uxY1hoIp_1tol-s1SgyOAdFUl_veLVRxneI5OJJw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7elJQ-nRe2cqghsnjpfyWcdXR82kBA26Avuvu7AdLWzx= g0kWKV7uxY1hoIp_1tol-s1SgyOAdFUl_veLVRxnO8wiKhg$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 150700
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!60zk3XxERyPy3hyOE5gZ9t82zr6q6PKcnCllG9kpt5_p= XwXCWDBzMV_JCQDj2F1HNGHVcgml_PDdnPQe-oyQ4u7h_Ek$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!60zk3XxERyPy3hyOE5gZ9t82zr6q6PKcnCllG9kpt5_p= XwXCWDBzMV_JCQDj2F1HNGHVcgml_PDdnPQe-oyQC2Vn36A$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!60zk3XxERyPy3hyOE5gZ9t82zr6q6PKcnCllG9kpt5_p= XwXCWDBzMV_JCQDj2F1HNGHVcgml_PDdnPQe-oyQt16IeN0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 151540
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-IH8k9LlZ9wstX-gS4ba6P-rctcUPR3glTQ9kWLtFTxv= ibWPpBbLKpABU0f87iotS6h9Rw88LbDNX1545b2u0VB3IJQ$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-IH8k9LlZ9wstX-gS4ba6P-rctcUPR3glTQ9kWLtFTxv= ibWPpBbLKpABU0f87iotS6h9Rw88LbDNX1545b2uKpZyXKE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-IH8k9LlZ9wstX-gS4ba6P-rctcUPR3glTQ9kWLtFTxv= ibWPpBbLKpABU0f87iotS6h9Rw88LbDNX1545b2uiGJh16k$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 151902
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Snell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Snell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5-gkua4zwGzJdOaY8UFMENOYYVRod5EN4ToozMimI8pY= vM2SoDdkS-gmRhyulsZgBKCkv0Y_NFEdIIlG5KRRVoCYwH4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5-gkua4zwGzJdOaY8UFMENOYYVRod5EN4ToozMimI8pY= vM2SoDdkS-gmRhyulsZgBKCkv0Y_NFEdIIlG5KRRlvZAl-o$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5-gkua4zwGzJdOaY8UFMENOYYVRod5EN4ToozMimI8pY= vM2SoDdkS-gmRhyulsZgBKCkv0Y_NFEdIIlG5KRRd_dkGEs$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 160011
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
711 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

...01Z Update...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Snell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Snell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9WEZAwCrG1yxas6wJ2E3UdfOt2_25KLHRsJgls0HaeMx= souGe0dOPFA2TKWX-tVlBTnoB2jzBHM9kzTmTjP5x7V0Eyo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9WEZAwCrG1yxas6wJ2E3UdfOt2_25KLHRsJgls0HaeMx= souGe0dOPFA2TKWX-tVlBTnoB2jzBHM9kzTmTjP5R50QUWk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9WEZAwCrG1yxas6wJ2E3UdfOt2_25KLHRsJgls0HaeMx= souGe0dOPFA2TKWX-tVlBTnoB2jzBHM9kzTmTjP5Z3rRAFg$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 160724
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4TmHS_LdgCf0pnMjIEuITXWJ0wU8sHJypsmJGLAygMil= 0kXnQ0esyRGsGqI7SHlX_NZrJKMeLsRcs6o3nGm8OOP2juI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4TmHS_LdgCf0pnMjIEuITXWJ0wU8sHJypsmJGLAygMil= 0kXnQ0esyRGsGqI7SHlX_NZrJKMeLsRcs6o3nGm8am9o45c$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4TmHS_LdgCf0pnMjIEuITXWJ0wU8sHJypsmJGLAygMil= 0kXnQ0esyRGsGqI7SHlX_NZrJKMeLsRcs6o3nGm8sAOBd2s$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 161558
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_czuKUMLwbpKCiDIurkLiTwvtvjWHnU1-U1DykX4m3W_= Cu5e50hKvB6r_fqwaEJ2zE4q3GRW9BqJqcgkK6uSBOubMNY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_czuKUMLwbpKCiDIurkLiTwvtvjWHnU1-U1DykX4m3W_= Cu5e50hKvB6r_fqwaEJ2zE4q3GRW9BqJqcgkK6uSf29EDfk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_czuKUMLwbpKCiDIurkLiTwvtvjWHnU1-U1DykX4m3W_= Cu5e50hKvB6r_fqwaEJ2zE4q3GRW9BqJqcgkK6uSLu61hYI$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 161831
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
131 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!86yjRmgR-abXaoT_Es2PPWdXzFyBXAztofNFLS04m1Jc= ylqo5DYTgKnSH82zVxmDB2XUMZWlfN5K5Ov0K5a3wJi1Vyw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!86yjRmgR-abXaoT_Es2PPWdXzFyBXAztofNFLS04m1Jc= ylqo5DYTgKnSH82zVxmDB2XUMZWlfN5K5Ov0K5a3db2_ToM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!86yjRmgR-abXaoT_Es2PPWdXzFyBXAztofNFLS04m1Jc= ylqo5DYTgKnSH82zVxmDB2XUMZWlfN5K5Ov0K5a3JqHbZGs$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 170030
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4RJCZ86morghRqwDnNdlX3YtDaz5Akp_NGShovaZYqpF= y7tdN0InJ9y9M_OKN5JtbmE0TAA4UYdmdALhodbTrHINRaM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4RJCZ86morghRqwDnNdlX3YtDaz5Akp_NGShovaZYqpF= y7tdN0InJ9y9M_OKN5JtbmE0TAA4UYdmdALhodbT6n9Nz7U$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4RJCZ86morghRqwDnNdlX3YtDaz5Akp_NGShovaZYqpF= y7tdN0InJ9y9M_OKN5JtbmE0TAA4UYdmdALhodbT7_7BBYY$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 170735
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_b0iuq7tSOiL8SRGL99VFe6eNDFqhbooWe4NhZ8npXd4= V7fkt4in1L_EPrmSn2OHZxX0-S-K6xIyqTFILhiKZw4AwkA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_b0iuq7tSOiL8SRGL99VFe6eNDFqhbooWe4NhZ8npXd4= V7fkt4in1L_EPrmSn2OHZxX0-S-K6xIyqTFILhiKGoo3YDw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_b0iuq7tSOiL8SRGL99VFe6eNDFqhbooWe4NhZ8npXd4= V7fkt4in1L_EPrmSn2OHZxX0-S-K6xIyqTFILhiKVRhTkgU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 171455
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8tLy8vYEyZ9STefgLOlC8yJLXg_xLWTAjAMVLQ7q5y_j= RKkjVahbcZn5kRnyRcSjQJXByr8bEbKUfgvMVOPRxPeCtQk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8tLy8vYEyZ9STefgLOlC8yJLXg_xLWTAjAMVLQ7q5y_j= RKkjVahbcZn5kRnyRcSjQJXByr8bEbKUfgvMVOPRMQZDl9w$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8tLy8vYEyZ9STefgLOlC8yJLXg_xLWTAjAMVLQ7q5y_j= RKkjVahbcZn5kRnyRcSjQJXByr8bEbKUfgvMVOPRLHJjvUQ$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 172050
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8dXpSHUsG0HP1TwKatk-UAGS-Zf8G9WnADq9NvzBFFwB= 0pmyLAljK_8DmRrrfGgN_C70T4b5c4zKjpjG9LeXrn4JezU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8dXpSHUsG0HP1TwKatk-UAGS-Zf8G9WnADq9NvzBFFwB= 0pmyLAljK_8DmRrrfGgN_C70T4b5c4zKjpjG9LeXLGukgR8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8dXpSHUsG0HP1TwKatk-UAGS-Zf8G9WnADq9NvzBFFwB= 0pmyLAljK_8DmRrrfGgN_C70T4b5c4zKjpjG9LeXSS1JNBw$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 180011
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
711 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5ubzKGuJ5I0qLLYwpu7aiUaU5UnBJ79fE9EtavAHlzmk= VVmXRMsZ3BCvPVdaVEeccn0jM1PLlOyZz94lYx11YxTaIzQ$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5ubzKGuJ5I0qLLYwpu7aiUaU5UnBJ79fE9EtavAHlzmk= VVmXRMsZ3BCvPVdaVEeccn0jM1PLlOyZz94lYx118WEtChA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5ubzKGuJ5I0qLLYwpu7aiUaU5UnBJ79fE9EtavAHlzmk= VVmXRMsZ3BCvPVdaVEeccn0jM1PLlOyZz94lYx115uvvcJ4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 180742
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5XEZdCGy9vqdZUsxKqq2341qE3p_gIw9fY7Q1ZAQ5lRQ= _NmnA5-6Id4siLV3aUjM9PbNxuQIYq7IRqNPBN8jHcpbaj4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5XEZdCGy9vqdZUsxKqq2341qE3p_gIw9fY7Q1ZAQ5lRQ= _NmnA5-6Id4siLV3aUjM9PbNxuQIYq7IRqNPBN8j4Crqr3o$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5XEZdCGy9vqdZUsxKqq2341qE3p_gIw9fY7Q1ZAQ5lRQ= _NmnA5-6Id4siLV3aUjM9PbNxuQIYq7IRqNPBN8jbcSTXog$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 181527
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1027 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!83OTpfMUGKWoaKZM9kFR94xQ5bxJXLn19b8PYckEAgaK= R4Xy2qBe6ekTdbhxd1Kirx8swNvH_AVlTthKsi3ggaJDpQA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!83OTpfMUGKWoaKZM9kFR94xQ5bxJXLn19b8PYckEAgaK= R4Xy2qBe6ekTdbhxd1Kirx8swNvH_AVlTthKsi3gO00jw8E$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!83OTpfMUGKWoaKZM9kFR94xQ5bxJXLn19b8PYckEAgaK= R4Xy2qBe6ekTdbhxd1Kirx8swNvH_AVlTthKsi3gxrzdms0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 181935
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9cuWjgGw-ETnNXy00_gARU6ZhssSkLzuaZGNKwdvVRcH= BqwEMwJf_vj0veLWBCzBYI1999pwZyE2XyNLxXi01mUdL_8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9cuWjgGw-ETnNXy00_gARU6ZhssSkLzuaZGNKwdvVRcH= BqwEMwJf_vj0veLWBCzBYI1999pwZyE2XyNLxXi0bENZoZY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9cuWjgGw-ETnNXy00_gARU6ZhssSkLzuaZGNKwdvVRcH= BqwEMwJf_vj0veLWBCzBYI1999pwZyE2XyNLxXi0GS200TY$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 190010
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4HjMvpBozEax5hDixb1BIwQO7prsMKaeAYa7UQJzDLp5= tfY-eU4KEcZm3vLF6_CU7kb4klL-Fwk93Zl01bUJpgxu1C8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4HjMvpBozEax5hDixb1BIwQO7prsMKaeAYa7UQJzDLp5= tfY-eU4KEcZm3vLF6_CU7kb4klL-Fwk93Zl01bUJqE92st0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4HjMvpBozEax5hDixb1BIwQO7prsMKaeAYa7UQJzDLp5= tfY-eU4KEcZm3vLF6_CU7kb4klL-Fwk93Zl01bUJkCSg7BM$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 190746
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gulf Coast... Guidance has hinted at possible QPF of 1-2 inches=20
for parts of the Southeast Texas and western Louisiana coastline=20
and points inland inland for this period; however the majority of
the deeper convection will likely remain offshore. There is a non
zero potential for very isolated areas of flash flooding.=20

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9Z34dmTnRJCdgZUZ1QHZihYJFA281LEdwBNzS0jULTcV= 3pGQrDX7cOLR_eX-T0Icf1tludiQBHHd0EsWaL9cDkQ0ZdY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9Z34dmTnRJCdgZUZ1QHZihYJFA281LEdwBNzS0jULTcV= 3pGQrDX7cOLR_eX-T0Icf1tludiQBHHd0EsWaL9cBr2eDnA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9Z34dmTnRJCdgZUZ1QHZihYJFA281LEdwBNzS0jULTcV= 3pGQrDX7cOLR_eX-T0Icf1tludiQBHHd0EsWaL9cPnSWjzM$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 191443
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
943 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gulf Coast... Guidance has hinted at possible QPF of 1-2 inches
for parts of the Southeast Texas and western Louisiana coastline
and points inland inland for this period; however the majority of
the deeper convection will likely remain offshore. There is a non
zero potential for very isolated areas of flash flooding.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!41dvlT7NUDJMDUHzwWqfcyaEy1qK2k2SBb8a8_o6ILJp= 74QMYb4Kk1kEiEZ3TwIogQJmM0fD8yDNMRZgsB5nXcgrXis$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!41dvlT7NUDJMDUHzwWqfcyaEy1qK2k2SBb8a8_o6ILJp= 74QMYb4Kk1kEiEZ3TwIogQJmM0fD8yDNMRZgsB5nuZp7CXw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!41dvlT7NUDJMDUHzwWqfcyaEy1qK2k2SBb8a8_o6ILJp= 74QMYb4Kk1kEiEZ3TwIogQJmM0fD8yDNMRZgsB5n163o5C0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 191915
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gulf Coast... Guidance has hinted at possible QPF of 1-2 inches
for parts of the Southeast Texas and western Louisiana coastline
and points inland inland for this period; however the majority of
the deeper convection will likely remain offshore. There is a non
zero potential for very isolated areas of flash flooding.

Campbell/Pereira

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_fuogXg8Qw7Ac1_eZg9yUlP0UDr1rsYIjbpHDgsBD_9_= ZweNBRdWts0VwhIUmzb7MomO3chMmnw3Ap6o8ChJCX_g3yg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_fuogXg8Qw7Ac1_eZg9yUlP0UDr1rsYIjbpHDgsBD_9_= ZweNBRdWts0VwhIUmzb7MomO3chMmnw3Ap6o8ChJol355Es$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_fuogXg8Qw7Ac1_eZg9yUlP0UDr1rsYIjbpHDgsBD_9_= ZweNBRdWts0VwhIUmzb7MomO3chMmnw3Ap6o8ChJcG7cBnU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 200025
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gulf Coast... Guidance has hinted at possible QPF of 1-2 inches
for parts of the Southeast Texas and western Louisiana coastline
and points inland inland for this period; however the majority of
the deeper convection will likely remain offshore. There is a non
zero potential for very isolated areas of flash flooding.

Campbell/Pereira

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8uvJJeMtFMRdEdhlp0OAxmX_KaEOscoE-cciAIo089vH= H9eEcRGhTDl2DdFUwBdUQVSi-J5uWMOzwJdohB1KDOrexFU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8uvJJeMtFMRdEdhlp0OAxmX_KaEOscoE-cciAIo089vH= H9eEcRGhTDl2DdFUwBdUQVSi-J5uWMOzwJdohB1Kwx2sxG8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8uvJJeMtFMRdEdhlp0OAxmX_KaEOscoE-cciAIo089vH= H9eEcRGhTDl2DdFUwBdUQVSi-J5uWMOzwJdohB1KwQIOK6w$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 200758
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.


Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9pYP2N512HYpWJ1DquvSmhPGO6-AUVlLOna2lagYB1KN= NyR5pZ3kF3V3cF3pZwB6KMwEydWap4Pu-E0uuff-_IXBMvU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9pYP2N512HYpWJ1DquvSmhPGO6-AUVlLOna2lagYB1KN= NyR5pZ3kF3V3cF3pZwB6KMwEydWap4Pu-E0uuff-ZGEu3hk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9pYP2N512HYpWJ1DquvSmhPGO6-AUVlLOna2lagYB1KN= NyR5pZ3kF3V3cF3pZwB6KMwEydWap4Pu-E0uuff-f2HbtlA$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 201523
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1023 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

Texas coast...
An area of moisture convergence/frontogenesis has been the focus=20
of showers trying to stream into the Middle TX Coast off the Gulf=20
of Mexico. The 0.5"+ an hour rain amounts have been focused off the
coast, along the lines of the output from the 12z HREF guidance.
With time, the RAP shows the flow veering in this area, showing
less of a surface focus for the convection with time. The 12z HREF=20
is focusing whatever heavy rain threat that exists just offshore of
Port O'Connor, mostly during the 16-20z time frame, before fading.
Local totals to 3" are expected just offshore. Even if this=20
activity were to unexpectedly drift ashore, the heavy rainfall risk
appears too isolated and too limited for a Marginal Risk area, so=20
left the graphic area-free.=20

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.


Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!480FaRCB443YsYUZ_7sRxBYf0M8f7usADtjTvpHhTAu3= 2Fh-CeGV0plK2wBVE8fyKYAiSF7RxZB2gb43Ru_6qO32Yc0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!480FaRCB443YsYUZ_7sRxBYf0M8f7usADtjTvpHhTAu3= 2Fh-CeGV0plK2wBVE8fyKYAiSF7RxZB2gb43Ru_6OFVUBUQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!480FaRCB443YsYUZ_7sRxBYf0M8f7usADtjTvpHhTAu3= 2Fh-CeGV0plK2wBVE8fyKYAiSF7RxZB2gb43Ru_6MXONIXQ$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 201808
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
108 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

Texas coast...
An area of moisture convergence/frontogenesis has been the focus=20
of showers trying to stream into the Middle TX Coast off the Gulf=20
of Mexico. The 0.5"+ an hour rain amounts have been focused off the
coast, along the lines of the output from the 12z HREF guidance.
With time, the RAP shows the flow veering in this area, showing
less of a surface focus for the convection with time. The 12z HREF=20
is focusing whatever heavy rain threat that exists just offshore of
Port O'Connor, mostly during the 16-20z time frame, before fading.
Local totals to 3" are expected just offshore. Even if this=20
activity were to unexpectedly drift ashore, the heavy rainfall risk
appears too isolated and too limited for a Marginal Risk area, so=20
left the graphic area-free.=20

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026

South Florida...
The best signal for heavy rainfall this period focuses near an=20
inverted trough sharpening along the South Florida coast,=20
as precipitable water values rise to 1.5" and instability tries to
move ashore from the Gulf Stream. The 12z HREF/06z REFS advertise
0.5"+ an hour amounts right at the end of the period Thursday=20
morning, with a 40%+ chance of 2"+ somewhere between coastal=20
Broward and Martin Counties. At the moment, the threat of flash=20
flooding here appears too isolated and too marginal for a Marginal=20
Risk to be depicted.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026

South Florida...
The best signal remains near South Florida Thursday morning where=20
enough moisture and instability appear to exist for locally heavy=20
rain. The guidance appears to drift this activity northward as the=20
low- level flow veers; convection is not expected to sit in any=20
particular location for too long. At the moment, the threat of=20
flash flooding here appears too isolated/marginal for a Marginal=20
Risk to be depicted.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4tXLbLBiBWST4vMBln_lADJlIwPWE-z7cSBpSVsXaJpD= 0R1EjYG-HkXlt7SvwWV_dNkFb3_srILCthAD_Qk4HEJbh5g$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4tXLbLBiBWST4vMBln_lADJlIwPWE-z7cSBpSVsXaJpD= 0R1EjYG-HkXlt7SvwWV_dNkFb3_srILCthAD_Qk4wPhe-Qs$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4tXLbLBiBWST4vMBln_lADJlIwPWE-z7cSBpSVsXaJpD= 0R1EjYG-HkXlt7SvwWV_dNkFb3_srILCthAD_Qk4Cb-dTiY$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

FOUS30 KWBC 210013
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026

South Florida...
The best signal for heavy rainfall this period focuses near an
inverted trough sharpening along the South Florida coast,
as precipitable water values rise to 1.5" and instability tries to
move ashore from the Gulf Stream. The 12z HREF/06z REFS advertise
0.5"+ an hour amounts right at the end of the period Thursday
morning, with a 40%+ chance of 2"+ somewhere between coastal
Broward and Martin Counties. At the moment, the threat of flash
flooding here appears too isolated and too marginal for a Marginal
Risk to be depicted.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026

South Florida...
The best signal remains near South Florida Thursday morning where
enough moisture and instability appear to exist for locally heavy
rain. The guidance appears to drift this activity northward as the
low- level flow veers; convection is not expected to sit in any
particular location for too long. At the moment, the threat of
flash flooding here appears too isolated/marginal for a Marginal
Risk to be depicted.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_VEMPHpYHq1hDTeqxTiT1VS0Z-OeGbFAiHpeGl6xJ9WJ= QahQSSkbJewABXBpi2s4VLBne3YRX8g600npnJxlUGDi8R8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_VEMPHpYHq1hDTeqxTiT1VS0Z-OeGbFAiHpeGl6xJ9WJ= QahQSSkbJewABXBpi2s4VLBne3YRX8g600npnJxlopRBxvI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_VEMPHpYHq1hDTeqxTiT1VS0Z-OeGbFAiHpeGl6xJ9WJ= QahQSSkbJewABXBpi2s4VLBne3YRX8g600npnJxlJouVkrQ$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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