1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2215

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 20 21:18:27 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 202118
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202118=20
    TXZ000-202315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2215
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0318 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

    Areas affected...portions of south-central and central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 202118Z - 202315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms and a few supercells along a
    baroclinic zone may pose a risk for isolated hail, damaging gusts or
    a brief tornado across central/south-central TX into this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Over the course of this afternoon, scattered convection
    along a diffuse baroclinic zone has gradually intensified across
    portions of south-central TX. Clearing to the east of the ongoing
    storms has resulted in some diurnal warming of an unseasonably moist
    air mass, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1000-1500
    J/kg). The increase in intensity is also likely tied to the arrival
    of stronger forcing for ascent ahead of the main upper trough over
    the Rio Grande Valley. Stronger flow aloft (mostly parallel to the front/outflow) will continue to support storm organization with a
    mixed mode of line segments and supercells.

    Current expectations are for the ongoing convection to gradually
    move eastward into the destabilized air mass across
    central/south-central TX with occasional intensification. With an
    increase in forcing and boundary-parallel flow, upscale growth
    appears to be the most likely result. Still, a few semi-discrete or
    embedded elements may intensify and pose an isolated severe risk
    into this evening. Hail and damaging winds would be the most likely
    hazards, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given modestly
    large low-level hodographs, especially with the more cellular
    elements along the southern periphery of the primary convective
    band.=20

    Storm intensity is expected to be somewhat transient given the
    undercutting nature of the front and the boundary parallel flow.
    Still, some intensification is possible over the next few hours.
    Convective trends will be monitored, but given the limited spatial
    and temporal risk, a WW currently appears unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 11/20/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8_4UZxYXzvLle_SjixVPaQQbPISFNX9qkJuhUnj1T2ulnIissPO5WWxG_sWwElWImifMhqzUA= RusIH4oZscLC9iQjSQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29110085 30619969 31829814 32169737 32129699 31789670
    30579692 29029749 27879999 28350052 29110085=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)