ACUS11 KWNS 172202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172201=20
IAZ000-172330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern into central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 172201Z - 172330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of additional severe gusts are possible over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...An organized multicellular cluster has developed over
southern IA, with a recent history of producing at least one
measured severe gust. This cluster is showing slight bowing
tendencies as it progresses through an ambient environment
characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical wind shear
is weak, and buoyancy does decrease downstream, likely because of
preceding showers and thunderstorms. As such, the severe threat
should remain sparse and localized.

..Squitieri/Kerr.. 09/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_9KNgca94wUiNPDdTmjYspvqIMEAPX3LMROp1yOelxrgsaWQ1jP-B7sVwpTd8jV8Y2ESaOWxq= i0vMb9HmdoJe_ftxlk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON 41039416 41559385 41729323 41709269 41419240 41119238
40819244 40689271 40679318 40729387 41039416=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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