ACUS11 KWNS 162225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162224=20
MNZ000-170030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Areas affected...Arrowhead of Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162224Z - 170030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong-severe thunderstorms are developing over the
Arrowhead region of Minnesota. Some risk for hail/wind can be
expected with these storms.

DISCUSSION...Southern extent of SK/ON short-wave trough is
influencing the international border region, especially the
Arrowhead of MN. Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to
substantial buoyancy across this region, and inhibition is currently
negligible where temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s. Latest
visible imagery supports this with a considerable amount of
congestus and towering cu over St. Louis County. Over the last few
minutes, a weak shower, with lightning, has developed near Ely and
this updraft is likely rooted within a confluent boundary layer
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings favor
some risk for hail/wind as thunderstorms intensify ahead of the
short wave. This activity will spread across the Arrowhead into
northwest ON, but current thinking is the area is too limited to
issue a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Darrow/Gleason.. 09/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4U92hIeMpaoKROYL-mRvF2M5YgA5Wo1LG8fm4sLRyODLHN8uZmQ3pmopt0wVOwmikAynto4Ul= R1O2wVHzD-wXyOEneU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...

LAT...LON 47409303 48369129 47948953 46749205 47409303=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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