ACUS11 KWNS 161922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161921=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Areas affected...eastern Nebraska...southwestern Iowa...and
northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 161921Z - 162115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase through the afternoon
with risk for a few instances of strong to severe wind.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing across portions of
central Iowa. Strong daytime heating amid mid 60s dew points has
aided in MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg. Though temperatures are hot
(warming into the mid 80s to 90s F) with moderate instability, deep
layer flow remains weak. A few stronger cores may produce some
instances of strong to severe wind, however, weaker shear will keep
the severe risk limited and localized. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6S5f-9_VQARmIfaiS8WMt5g3hRdKwgZX5YjqVH6cjpqIZCeRJZGe08M9mompuNsjLHe3ZzrbF= WeYUI51WKDc2B3AjO0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 39989570 40329692 40869736 41699753 42709710 43249630
43169532 42819367 42159273 40039225 39149316 39089434
39989570=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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