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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1709

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 18 17:22:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 181721
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181720=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1709
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Missouri to western Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 181720Z - 181915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing from southeast Missouri to
    western Kentucky will pose a risk of damaging winds through late
    afternoon, but watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are in the early stages of development to
    the west of I-55 in central/southeast MO within a diffuse stationary
    frontal zone. Through the afternoon, increasing southerly low-level
    winds will bolster low-level isentropic ascent, which in conjunction
    with peak heating, will promote additional thunderstorm development
    along the frontal zone into western KY. Weak winds within the lowest
    9 km will limit overall storm organization/longevity and promote
    mainly multicell clusters. As such, the potential for a robust,
    prolonged severe threat is limited. However, MLCAPE values
    approaching 3500 J/kg by late afternoon, combined with equilibrium
    levels near 14-15 km, PWAT values near 2 inches, and theta-e
    deficits near 25 K will promote strong water-loaded downdrafts
    capable of strong to severe downburst winds. The potential for
    sporadic damaging gusts should increase through late afternoon as
    thunderstorm coverage increases.

    ..Moore/Smith.. 07/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Eh1INUgTEdX2moG__syCM_LQPEsjQkojMYKCecvPNjNLietWsdzECsWigD0dPdGaKOPHVHqg= DRl8n-rA7k0u2rBRIM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 38189121 37999061 37749010 37518948 37548871 37528830
    37438788 37248766 36828764 36518781 36358815 36308881
    36258948 36379014 36449090 36519130 36639159 36819182
    37339219 37619229 37809231 38159213 38289165 38189121=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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