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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1702

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 17 22:05:20 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 172205
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172204=20
    COZ000-NMZ000-180000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1702
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0504 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

    Areas affected...Northeast NM into southeast CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 172204Z - 180000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible into early
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing in coverage and
    intensity late this afternoon from southeast CO into northeast NM.
    The strongest ongoing activity is occurring near the Sangre de
    Cristo Range, but some tendency for storm coverage to increase into
    the lower elevations is expected with time. MLCAPE of up to
    1500-2000 J/kg will continue to support occasionally robust
    convection into the early evening. While deep-layer flow is rather
    weak, low-level flow is backed across parts of southeast CO into
    northeast NM, to the north of a quasi-stationary surface front.
    Weakly veering wind profiles and effective shear of 25-30 kt may
    support occasionally organized storm structures, and some clustering
    of storms is possible with time.=20

    While midlevel temperatures are rather warm, isolated hail cannot be
    ruled out with the strongest updrafts into early evening. Strong to
    locally severe gusts will also be possible, especially if any storm
    clustering and outflow consolidation occurs with time.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 07/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8PD7ac2KyAFqPurk4lHNVaJbEg3XKRxkeH2aO0xB7_yAi5chRCJO_7v3q-zN9Zm_0RfbuUDl6= -nWM6QmmCijLqKno_k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35660334 34870354 34510434 34570496 34700530 34820546
    35370534 36670527 37860533 38650578 39040462 39070380
    38500299 36830307 35830332 35660334=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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