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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1693

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 16 23:01:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 162301
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162301=20
    COZ000-WYZ000-170000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1693
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0601 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and extreme southeast Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519...

    Valid 162301Z - 170000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms will persist into this evening,
    with the more favorable corridor for storm clustering with hail/wind
    into southeast Colorado.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered severe storms are ongoing across eastern CO
    within the upslope flow regime on the cool side of the synoptic
    front from western KS into the OK Panhandle and extreme northeast
    NM. Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to lower
    80s with mid-upper 50s dewpoints, contributing to MUCAPE near and
    above 2000 J/kg. Midlevel flow is a little stronger with northward
    extent, but easterly low-level flow is resulting in sufficient
    deep-layer shear to maintain the potential for supercells. Stronger
    surface heating will be maintained into southeast CO in advance of
    storms moving east of the higher terrain, which is where the greater
    potential for storm clustering with hail/wind will reside.

    ..Thompson.. 07/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Dem6P4LxjLSOzoM6ro_e7YEMsuINZ5Tbxpq0tL-mTMF7zmk-JIcXUnoyST2an_8Lzkr6R9P2= RmNYfFcRt8jgIiWPoM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 37720512 38410538 39340484 40070480 40960541 41300530
    41340473 40800372 40320291 39290284 38240276 37490271
    37220275 37070310 37080381 37200444 37720512=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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