ACUS11 KWNS 082229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082229=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-090030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082229Z - 090030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible with
the stronger storms that evolve into this evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based thunderstorms are developing along
the central High Plains this afternoon, where diurnal heating has
eroded antecedent low-level inhibition. As storms track slowly east-southeastward into increasing boundary-layer moisture and
buoyancy, steep lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs
(around 40 kt of effective shear) will support transient supercell
structures and small organized clusters. Isolated large hail and
severe gusts will be possible with any longer-lived storms that
evolve into this evening, though weak large-scale forcing for ascent
may limit overall storm longevity and coverage.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!45LI9FDrm3IVr7VjyxY1AxDO5hz2jcljKTf__MSHe345ga8Rkl0fdlI3wLnMU9C-veAc6YREi= rhm23GVVC7Z2mvm0b8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39540332 39940351 40460383 40930387 41810376 42300370
42590346 42690322 42630256 42430215 41750189 41190176
40330134 39730091 39000084 38680116 38580194 38720257
39030300 39540332=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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