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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1599

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 8 00:46:37 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 080046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080045=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1599
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0745 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493...

    Valid 080045Z - 080215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue spreading southeastward out
    of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 into tonight. A
    downstream/replacement watch will likely be needed for parts of the
    area toward the expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493.

    DISCUSSION...A large cluster of merging thunderstorms is drifting
    slowly southeastward across northeast NE, where several reports of
    severe winds and large hail have occurred. Given the large mass of
    storms and around 30 kt of west-northwesterly steering flow (sampled
    by OAX VWP), this activity will likely continue tracking
    southeastward into tonight. A warm/moist boundary layer and modestly
    steep midlevel lapse rates downstream should support a continued
    risk of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail with southeastward
    extent. This will likely warrant a downstream/replacement watch for
    parts of southeast NE into western IA toward the expiration time of
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 (03Z).

    ..Weinman/Gleason.. 07/08/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8bNbwEPqNB7taC659lUXlmDcCfm9D9RetzLup846KCELTZKBE1O-kHw0cs74rFGxtEDPxXyKg= xcc35hTlQsszSWMFwU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 40829562 40319668 40199808 40459879 41029931 41729933
    42269918 42449881 42659730 42809651 42789583 42429531
    41959515 41289516 40829562=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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