ACUS11 KWNS 072252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072252=20
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1598
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Southeast SD...northeast NE...and far northwest IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493...

Valid 072252Z - 080015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493
continues.

SUMMARY...Risk of large hail and severe wind gusts will continue spreading/expanding southward in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters are spreading slowly southward
along a composite outflow-front in southeastern SD, which will
continue to pose a risk of severe wind gusts. Ahead of the front,
differential heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture (upper
60s/lower 70s dewpoints) is supporting discrete supercell
development within a strongly unstable air mass. Given around 40 kt
of effective shear and modest clockwise hodograph curvature (per
nearby VWP), discrete supercells will be capable of producing large
hail (potentially up to 2 inches in diameter) and locally severe
wind gusts.

..Weinman.. 07/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8M5B3OwKOjK109-dmMY5uqxX40VDR-8mlu_-eW3fqWR7CmFrXGgKHt2w1Thk12GKouLqeUQqn= is8Km_OO0ZMX75B74E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43269974 43299875 43749697 43749648 43629604 43299588
42889582 42279674 41989815 41979922 42149980 42480007
42920013 43269974=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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