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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1597

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 7 22:29:09 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 072228
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072228=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-080000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1597
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0528 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of northeast CO...southwest NE...and far
    northwest KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492...

    Valid 072228Z - 080000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and severe wind gusts continue
    across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492. Some localized upscale growth
    may support an increasing severe-wind risk into this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in intensity and
    coverage across parts of northeastern CO into the southwestern NE
    Panhandle as they impinge on a moderate to strongly unstable
    boundary layer. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and a long/straight
    hodograph (around 40 kt of deep-layer shear per mesoanalysis/VWP)
    will continue to support embedded supercell structures and organized
    clusters capable of producing large hail and locally severe wind
    gusts. With time, continued storm mergers amid strong convective
    outflow may favor some localized upscale growth into one or more
    coherent clusters into this evening. This evolution would support an
    increasing risk of severe wind gusts (some upwards of 75 mph).

    ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Ti20mwRK9ptEK4c8o5QCfhDuVuV68tHZLtG9AuhC12mnRgZewwH3s4-WVMvEPopGslYplne4= 1gYuVM3Ypo0WfzWtwk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39430288 40560321 41340327 41680313 41890277 41880219
    41520179 40100142 39460166 39350241 39430288=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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