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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1596

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 7 21:59:07 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 072158
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072157=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-072330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1596
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

    Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494...

    Valid 072157Z - 072330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for a tornado or two and occasional large
    hail/wind damage will persist.

    DISCUSSION...A few supercells are ongoing across east central and
    northeast ND. The more favorable zone for a tornado or two will
    remain along the northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone across
    extreme northeast ND, where both vertical shear/buoyancy and
    vertical vorticity are maximized along and to the immediate cool
    side of the front. Farther south, a couple of storms are ongoing
    immediately ahead of the surface wind shift/trough. Moderate
    buoyancy is present through this zone where surface temperatures
    have warmed into the mid-upper 70s with mid 60s dewpoints, but
    relatively straight hodographs support some potential for large
    hail. Overall, storms are expected to remain semi-discrete and the
    severe threat should peak between now and 00z in the zone of modest
    forcing for ascent with a midlevel shortwave trough now moving over
    northeast ND.

    ..Thompson.. 07/07/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6zMGuu5vYTAzRINU5JMBiUbSACRzwBlqk3-cNgjkqk07tDkErcKIpdCJ9MmAG-VV43JHQzGFD= cBoQ5Ghim5tC0QqUSE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...

    LAT...LON 48559704 48019652 47659661 47209705 47099739 47159806
    47649791 48189811 48439842 48659834 48699780 48559704=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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