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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1595

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 7 20:29:12 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 072028
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072028=20
    NEZ000-072200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1595
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0328 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

    Areas affected...south-central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 072028Z - 072200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of large hail/damaging winds
    expected to to continue. Watch issuance is possible but remains
    uncertain in the short term.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar shows a few isolated storms
    that have developed during peak heating amid a very unstable
    airmass, characterized by MLCAPE values nearing 3000 J/kg. Deep
    layer shear has remained somewhat marginal thus far, perhaps
    approaching 30-35 kt, but is forecast to increase with time. Thus,
    storms should exhibit supercell characteristics, with large hail and
    damaging winds the primary threats. Southeasterly low-level flow is
    promoting at least some elongation of hodographs, but low-level
    shear remains weak in general. Thus, the tornado threat appears low
    but cannot be ruled out. These storms are expected to remain
    isolated, and thus, watch issuance is not anticipated in the short
    term. However, convective trends will be monitored should a watch be
    needed for the region.

    ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_MK1gsLK6hEuWNotGAkQkEtuNgZ9ZGnMsN0s8PcpB1tKIZoaQFYFtD5Atpakri_jt3fvRu7kD= SdYBpbqLO7CZd_D4KU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 40169732 40119843 41029906 41829869 41969762 41529693
    40989700 40169732=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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