1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1593

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 7 19:55:27 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 071955
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071955=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-072200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1593
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0255 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

    Areas affected...eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 071955Z - 072200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado are
    possible this afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar show convection developing
    along a cold front positioned from northeast North Dakota extending southwestward, and along a warm front extending into northeast
    Minnesota. This activity is developing in a region where skies have
    remained clear in proximity to passing cirrus clouds to the
    immediate south. In addition, cool mid-level temperatures are
    overspreading the region, in association with an upper-level trough.
    These factors are contributing to destabilization that is yielding
    MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg. Ample effective shear of 40-45 kt is
    also present, associated with the aforementioned trough.

    Storms are expected to continue increasing in coverage and severity
    throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Large hail and
    damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. A tornado will also
    be possible with any storm that can favorably interact with
    aforementioned warm front. Coverage of storms remains uncertain in
    the short term, given the extent of the cirrus shield limiting
    destabilization. However, at least some CAM solutions suggest
    greater coverage may materialize. Thus, convective trends will be
    monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon/evening.

    ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8d0AB3n4dJ_aAb1anz6qsK0nJqWbI4z0HmuAPlSiJHBIB-7sYEi68DzLWhCdTET5TyMWN4Fry= 51P4C_d2zBh_zv3Eoc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46209904 46929958 47909867 48659858 48929753 48199615
    46769546 46129652 46209904=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)