ACUS11 KWNS 071924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071923=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-072130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...northeast Colorado...far southeast
Wyoming...southwest Nebraska...and northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071923Z - 072130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms expected by mid/late afternoon,
posing a threat for severe wind/hail. Watch possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite show a broad area of terrain
generated convection over the mountains of central/northern Colorado
into far southeast Wyoming. Additional convection is now forming
downstream of this activity, along the lee of the Rockies. Clear
skies have promoted strong insolation amid a relatively moist
low-level airmass for the central High Plains, with dew point
temperatures in the mid/upper 50s F. This is contributing to an
west-to-east instability gradient, with MLCAPE values approaching
1500 J/kg in far northeast Colorado. Surface observations also
indicate a weak upslope flow regime in this region in advance of a
stalling cold front across the panhandle of Nebraska.

The aforementioned convection should continue to develop and
propagate eastward off the high terrain with time. As this occurs,
storms will encounter greater instability as MLCAPE values are
forecast to approach 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective shear is forecast to
increase throughout the afternoon/evening, approaching 35-45 kt.
This will help to promote storm organization into
supercell/multicell modes, with damaging winds and severe hail
expected. With time, cold pools may promote upscale growth into an
MCS this evening, transitioning into more of a damaging wind threat.
Given this potential, the area is being monitored for possible watch
issuance this afternoon.

..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5XKf6xdTojiHbDNAPxwPl5GH7UhdIi5gOF1ZvsrMIpQYrwSfowJZbJkwja_yhdT_IuxfHywZ0= dqmi9Varzu2Io_uZNo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41050528 41770466 42130290 41590110 40150044 38890075
38600147 38570347 38660487 39630541 41050528=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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