ACUS11 KWNS 071811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071811=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-072015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1590
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern South Dakota...southwest
Minnesota...far southeast North Dakota...and far northeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071811Z - 072015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Gradual intensification and new storm development expected
in the next few hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
the primary threats, which may necessitate watch issuance later this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends show a few areas of
ongoing/regenerative thunderstorm activity, one across parts of
central South Dakota and one with slightly more intense convection
across northeast South Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and
west-central Minnesota. The latter area has shown transient attempts
at organization but remained sub-severe thus far. Downstream of this
activity, daytime heating has allowed for increasing destabilization
amid a moist low-level airmass with dew point temperatures in the
mid/upper 60s F. This is supported by visible satellite showing a
developing cumulus field across eastern South Dakota and northeast
Nebraska.

The expectation is for storms across northeast South Dakota and
vicinity to continue gradually intensifying this afternoon in
association with broad ascent from a mid-level trough overspreading
the region. MLCAPE values are forecast to peak near 1000 J/kg
immediately downstream, which would result in more isolated coverage
of severe wind/hail with these storms.

Farther south, more isolated storm development should commence by
mid to late afternoon across east-central and southeast South
Dakota, as supported by recent CAM guidance, where continued
destabilization should result in MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg.
Effective shear will increase with the aforementioned approaching
trough, nearing 35-40 kt. This should promote a mix of multicells
and supercells initially, with large hail and damaging wind gusts
the primary threats. With time, upscale growth of convection is
possible if cold pool organization can occur.

Given this potential, convective trends will continue to be
monitored for the possibility of watch issuance later this
afternoon.

..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8TF0_hfKUsVlOMFpVXT59xDvKkfpA-KqgEv9VkRT5pRFgEWAt8wbsd_27WmM5mUSg7k8VtfqB= TOv-Mp_G46EbbVZMNQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 45839938 46169887 46099681 45919589 45139529 44219526
43059650 42529722 42719914 43919975 45839938=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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