ACUS11 KWNS 071804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071804=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-072030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1589
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and western New
York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071804Z - 072030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage, and likely
intensify, through the afternoon hours across Ohio, Pennsylvania,
and western New York. Watch issuance is not anticipated at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is well underway from central OH
into western NY as a cold front, locally augmented by lake-breeze
boundaries, pushes southeast into a weakly capped environment (as
evidenced by pre-frontal convection developing within a broad
agitated cumulus field). This front should continue to push
east/southeast through the afternoon as temperatures continue to
warm into the mid/upper 80s. These warming low-level conditions will
not only remove any lingering inhibition, but will also increase
boundary-layer depths with LCLs approaching 1 to 1.5 km. This will
promote downdraft accelerations with an attendant increase in
damaging/severe wind potential. The wind threat may be maximized by
late afternoon if a more consolidated cluster can emerge - most
likely driven by stronger forcing along the cold front - and
propagate either along the front or into the warm sector. While this
potential is noted, weak deep-layer flow/wind shear (0-6 km bulk
shear recently estimated to be around 15-20 knots) should limit the
potential for widespread organized convection. As such, watch
issuance is not currently anticipated, but convective trends will be
monitored given the very moist/buoyant environment and strong
forcing for ascent along the front.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8wEiBJ4YXXxGfcW6Cdjfv1POvnL1DLwA_ztYYMmrwPVyRHx4GM1AlusN9Wi87lnvXBRfcfPab= hOP0_tAa98gcNVdyr4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 42257527 41967575 39148154 38928205 38818256 38858302
38988339 39248369 39558390 39958392 40298389 40738301
41858020 43237766 43477711 43637662 43787594 43757556
43607524 43407507 43017507 42617506 42257527=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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