ACUS11 KWNS 070913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070912=20
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-071115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...far northeast Wyoming...far southeast Montana...and
western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 070912Z - 071115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue this morning. Hail and gusty
winds may be possible with the strongest storms. Currently, a watch
is not anticipated for this threat.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing / redeveloping this
morning across far northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota. These
storms appear to be rooted between 850 and 700 millibars and are
likely driven by modest warm-air advection within this layer per
model forecast soundings across the region.=20

The overall environment is unstable with most-unstable CAPE between
1000-1500 J/kg. However, effective-layer shear is quite variable
across the area, with better shear to the north and to the south of
the ongoing thunderstorms. That said, effective-layer shear between
25-30 knots is sufficient to support strong multicells or even
transient supercellular characteristics. Given the degree of
instability and at least modest effective-layer shear, isolated hail
and perhaps strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with the stronger thunderstorm updrafts. However, widespread organized severe
potential is not anticipated and thus a watch is not expected.=20

Some CAM-based guidance does indicate the potential for ongoing
thunderstorms to eventually coalesce into a small organized MCS
later this morning. Should evidence of this organization start to
materialize, the potential for a watch later this morning would
increase accordingly.

..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!45hJOHur6ngWKyKnNtclUfLnskOiPlb4o6odwSDCJhvbURpS-omsZ8Pdn3VxmKXpnZ9K0M1PG= lZN3qiQO8nME4vY7aI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON 44090536 44530586 45040550 45350454 45630349 45580231
45230132 44520099 43880102 43440139 43220220 43420333
43710446 44090536=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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