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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1586

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 7 02:16:20 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 070215
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070215=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-070345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1586
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0915 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...490...

    Valid 070215Z - 070345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489, 490
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts continues with an evolving
    cluster of storms.

    DISCUSSION...At the intersection of two outflow boundaries over far
    eastern CO, a cluster of thunderstorms is attempting to grow
    upscale. Over the next couple hours, a 30-kt low-level jet (sampled
    by the GLD VWP) and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear may promote the maintenance or even slight intensification of the cluster as it
    tracks slowly southeastward -- especially if it can favorably merge
    with additional storms/outflow farther south. While gradual
    nocturnal boundary-layer cooling casts some uncertainty on the
    potential for additional intensification/organization, the focused
    low-level jet and modest boundary-layer moisture (upper 50s/lower
    60s dewpoints) may offset this to an extent. The primary concern
    will be severe wind gusts, especially if localized upscale growth
    can occur.

    ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4RQ4XOmbOCBw2mtTfW4S-g12Z3XZN2eCwtm1uOYnWD0_T1lAz62q9lOUVbF9PFTJ_XJd-jno_= qVWUbO2QY7-B4aQz3U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38750329 39260335 39750317 40000284 40120235 40040170
    39560110 39260115 38750131 38390234 38500299 38750329=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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