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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1584

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 6 23:04:29 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 062304
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062303=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-070030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1584
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0603 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

    Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...northwest KS...and southwest
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...490...

    Valid 062303Z - 070030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489, 490
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A focused/favorable corridor for large hail and severe
    wind gusts is evident over the central High Plains for the next few
    hours -- within Severe Thunderstorm Watches 489/490.

    DISCUSSION...An intense, nearly stationary supercell has evolved out
    of a cluster of storms over far northeastern CO. Farther west, a
    separate cluster of storms is showing signs of upscale growth. To
    the southeast of this activity, a gradually stalling outflow
    boundary is arcing northwestward from northwest KS into northeastern
    CO. This outflow boundary may provide a focused mesoscale corridor
    for the maintenance of the supercell (and additional nearby
    convection) with southeastward extent into this evening. Along this
    corridor, around 40 kt of effective shear (locally boosted/enhanced
    along the boundary) and moderate surface-based instability will
    favor large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and
    severe wind gusts with any established supercells/clusters. Some
    upscale growth may also occur with time, as the western cluster may
    have a tendency of merging with the downstream storms/supercells --
    posing an increasing risk of severe-wind gusts into this evening.

    ..Weinman.. 07/06/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9gOIgretH00eKDdPYDHGRnaQcaWdL-vkQe9taLEdbVHH2r1XNuRpt4HmtuBPn-89bYCNm2Q_I= XG0ENIQhc9sEAQRb8k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39890262 40070379 40310432 40510443 41030408 41510398
    41740355 41700294 41480238 40730187 39900146 39630170
    39610203 39710228 39890262=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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