ACUS11 KWNS 062044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062044=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-062215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1582
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...north-central North Carolina into far southern
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 062044Z - 062215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or strong wind gust will remain possible
with the convection near the remnant core of TD Chantal.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon imagery shows the remnants of TD Chantal
located across portions of north-central NC near 34.4 deg N 79.2 deg
W. Within the broader precip shield, a few deeper convective towers
have remained strong with occasional cyclonic rotation observed.
Enhanced low-level shear (0-1km SRH near 200 m2/s2) near the remnant
center will remain strong enough to support occasional low-level
mesocyclones with this convection. Despite weak buoyancy (MLCAPE
(~500 J/kg) the moist surface environment and some deeper storms may
remain capable of a brief tornado two and damaging gust into this
evening. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, and the
interaction of the circulation with higher terrain to the west
should slowly limit the threat tonight.

..Lyons.. 07/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!850JZmrAWOVdNuLar-drD3I35nq4TK32O_EMAepmUw-HLPf6KmvOXTGLqI1CTIuOWowG__d7i= wNBtw6P_WFckviUE0g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 35307970 35618006 36217998 36867950 36907877 36587833
36477861 36077903 35617917 35317918 35307970=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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