ACUS11 KWNS 062027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062026=20
MEZ000-062200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1581
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 062026Z - 062200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a
few supercells, may pose a risk for damaging gusts and small hail
this afternoon/evening. A WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2020 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed convection was strengthening across portions of Maine. As
temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s, around 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE has developed with dewpoints in the 60s. While not
overly strong, this buoyancy should continue to support occasional
stronger updrafts with convection across the region. Deep-layer
shear is supportive of storm organization with the KCBW VAD showing
an elongated hodograph and 30-45 kt of bulk shear. Weak mid-level
rotation has already been observed and the environment suggests a
few supercell/organized multi cell structures are possible. With
poor lapse rates and relatively limited buoyancy, damaging gusts
still appear to be the primary risk. However, some small hail and a
brief tornado are possible with the stronger rotating storms.

HRRR guidance and observations suggests additional storm development/intensification is plausible this afternoon with more
storms developing/moving in from eastern Canada this evening. While
some severe risk is possible, confidence in severe coverage is low
owing to weak forcing and limited buoyancy. Convective trends are
being monitored, but a WW is currently unlikely.

..Lyons/Hart.. 07/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6CCYZJvswOTIjeIceEvVnFmQOyeED2GabeVj0BIDTn5gqoe1akxKuGWqEARbKQpEoKVmjROBO= u7RLYBKVKWL9reT64c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 45327107 47017003 47546872 46806725 45486706 44986795
44606972 44637058 45327107=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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