ACUS11 KWNS 061709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061709=20
OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-061915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1576
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061709Z - 061915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Isolated damaging gusts are possible with the stronger storms/clusters. Widespread storm organization is not expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 1715 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed initial diurnal thunderstorm activity was beginning to
increase in coverage across portions of the mid MS and lower OH
Valleys. Area surface observations show strong heating along a weak
front with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F across a very
moist air mass. Modest mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) amid the
warm and moist air mass will support strong buoyancy (MUCAPE ~3000
J/kg). Continued heating and weak ascent from the front and a subtle
trough aloft will allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon.=20

Despite the large buoyancy, deep-layer shear is minimal, with most
of the region observing less than 20 kt. This strongly suggests a
pulse multi-cellular storm mode. Some clustering/upscale growth is
possible with time as individual outflows consolidate. However, this
appears limited to areas with locally greater storm coverage, and
broader storm organization appears very unlikely. This will favor
only sporadic stronger downdraft pulses. Given this and modest lapse
rates aloft, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Conditions will
continue to be monitored, but the limited storm/severe coverage
suggests a WW is unlikely.

..Lyons/Hart.. 07/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7zTEaEMzDCj7AncG86RIUPIrclO1PCrkhzgmGChe5sllHb9pwKiaKOE35GW8uNxR760AiiqHV= -WbSgglxR8Cd74J2v0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG... LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 38269381 38819201 40548820 41758662 41678534 40748472
39498475 37638699 36718887 36109124 35999289 36079367
38269381=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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