ACUS01 KWNS 251608
SWODY1
SPC AC 251607

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
EASTERN GEORGIA....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA....

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts are possible from parts of the Carolinas into the
Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible
from the northern High Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic.

...Southeast US...
An unusually favorable thermodynamic pattern has evolved across the
southeast US today, with very steep mid-level lapse rates, cool
temperatures aloft, and strong daytime heating. Surface dewpoints
in the 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg.

Large scale forcing is weak, suggesting convective initiation will
be poorly focused. However, most 12z CAM solutions show several
clusters of storms through the afternoon spreading southward from NC
into SC and eastern GA. Vertical shear is rather weak, suggesting
storms will be rather disorganized. However, there is a conditional
risk for an active day across the ENH risk, with considerable
coverage of damaging wind reports possible. As storms spread
southwestward this evening across GA, the risk of locally damaging
wind gusts will continue.

...NE/IA/MN...
Visible satellite imagery shows a developing differential heating
zone extending from south-central NE into central IA. Full sun to
the south of this zone will lead to strong instability and scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development. A band of 30-40 knot
southwesterly flow aloft atop this zone, coupled with strengthening
southerly low-level winds, will encourage organized/bowing clusters
of storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. A tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.

...CO/KS...
Thunderstorms will once again develop off the higher terrain of
CO/WY this afternoon and spread into the Plains. Model guidance
suggests steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for severe
wind potential as these storms track toward northwest KS/southwest
NE by early evening.

...OH/WV...
Hot and humid conditions are present today across much of southern
OH into northern WV. Visible satellite imagery shows a developing
CU field, which may result in scattered slow-moving afternoon
thunderstorms. Winds aloft are rather weak, but the strongest cells
in this corridor may be capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 252001
SWODY1
SPC AC 251959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
EASTERN GEORGIA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO PARTS OF IOWA...MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts are expected from parts of the Carolinas into the
Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible
from the northern/central High Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of 5-percent
tornado probabilities along the warm front in southeast MN,
northeast IA, and far west-central WI. Here, a moist boundary layer
(lower 70s dewpoints) is gradually destabilizing amid diurnal
heating within cloud breaks. This continued destabilization and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (sampled by ARX/MPX VWPs)
should support a locally favorable corridor for a couple supercell
tornadoes -- especially with additional strengthening of the
low-level jet. For details on the severe risks in the Southeast and
central Plains, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 459 and 460.

..Weinman.. 06/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025/

...Southeast US...
An unusually favorable thermodynamic pattern has evolved across the
southeast US today, with very steep mid-level lapse rates, cool
temperatures aloft, and strong daytime heating. Surface dewpoints
in the 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg.

Large scale forcing is weak, suggesting convective initiation will
be poorly focused. However, most 12z CAM solutions show several
clusters of storms through the afternoon spreading southward from NC
into SC and eastern GA. Vertical shear is rather weak, suggesting
storms will be rather disorganized. However, there is a conditional
risk for an active day across the ENH risk, with considerable
coverage of damaging wind reports possible. As storms spread
southwestward this evening across GA, the risk of locally damaging
wind gusts will continue.

...NE/IA/MN...
Visible satellite imagery shows a developing differential heating
zone extending from south-central NE into central IA. Full sun to
the south of this zone will lead to strong instability and scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development. A band of 30-40 knot
southwesterly flow aloft atop this zone, coupled with strengthening
southerly low-level winds, will encourage organized/bowing clusters
of storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. A tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.

...CO/KS...
Thunderstorms will once again develop off the higher terrain of
CO/WY this afternoon and spread into the Plains. Model guidance
suggests steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for severe
wind potential as these storms track toward northwest KS/southwest
NE by early evening.

...OH/WV...
Hot and humid conditions are present today across much of southern
OH into northern WV. Visible satellite imagery shows a developing
CU field, which may result in scattered slow-moving afternoon
thunderstorms. Winds aloft are rather weak, but the strongest cells
in this corridor may be capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260106
SWODY1
SPC AC 260104

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GEORGIA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FOR A SMALL AREA AROUND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND INTO
TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging outflow gusts and isolated large hail will remain possible
for the next several hours from South Carolina to southern Alabama.
A couple of tornadoes will be possible in the short term in the
vicinity of southwest Wisconsin.

...Southeast tonight...
Clusters of storms are ongoing across SC, where outflow mergers have
led to consolidation of a cold pool. The storms will likely persist
for several more hours while spreading southwestward over the
coastal plains of SC/GA, sustained by steeper-than-usual midlevel
lapse rates and strong buoyancy. Isolated large hail of 1-1.5
inches in diameter will remain a possibility with the stronger
embedded storms (especially with mergers), but damaging outflow
gusts will be the main threat with collapsing cores in the steep
lapse rate environment with strong downdraft potential (as suggested
by DCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg).

Farther southwest, a few strong-severe storms will be possible
through about 02-03z along the conglomerate outflow from southwest
GA into southern AL.

...Southwest WI/southeast MN/northeast IA this evening...
Several tornadoes have been reported with supercells in a broken
band from northeast IA across far southeast MN into southwest WI.
These storms have trended toward a more linear mode over time and
the tornado threat appears to have already peaked. Prior to the
storms weakening early tonight, the potential for a couple of
tornadoes will persist for another 1-2 hours with the stronger
embedded supercells interacting with the warm front, where low-level
hodograph curvature/shear are maximized.

...Eastern NE/western IA this evening...
Convection has been largely undercut by convective outflow from
eastern NE into western IA. Moderate buoyancy remains immediately
to the south of the aggregate outflow/effective frontal boundary,
and profiles will remain sufficiently moist to maintain elevated
convection into the overnight hours. However, the potential for
severe storms appears to be diminishing with time, with only
isolated strong outflow gusts and/or marginally severe hail expected
beyond 01z.

...Northern High Plains through early tonight...
Widely scattered storms, some with supercell structure, will be
possible through about 03z. Thereafter, convection is expected to
weaken consistently with diurnal stabilization. In the interim,
isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter will be possible.

..Thompson.. 06/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260526
SWODY1
SPC AC 260525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this
afternoon from northern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated
wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern
Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana.

...Northern IA/southwest WI area this afternoon...
A weak midlevel trough over NE, enhanced by overnight convection,
will progress east-northeastward over IA during the afternoon, along
with an associated/weak wave along a surface baroclinic zone.
Modest enhancement to vertical shear along the baroclinic zone, and
MLCAPE near or above 2500 J/kg will support the potential for a band
of storms along and ahead of the front this afternoon. The
initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential
to produce a few tornadoes, in addition to isolated wind damage and
marginally severe hail. Convection will likely grow upscale into a
line by late afternoon, and the severe threat will begin to diminish
by late evening.

...Southeast today...
Around the southeast periphery of a weakening midlevel high over KY,
a midlevel low will drift slowly west-northwestward over FL and
weaken gradually through tonight. Widespread convection is still
ongoing from late Wednesday evening across AL/GA, with relatively
widespread convective overturning and associated outflow. Remnant
outflows and differential heating zones will play a role in
additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, though
regional reductions in surface temperatures/moisture from yesterday
will make the environment less favorable for widespread damaging
downbursts compared to Wednesday. Given the mesoscale complexity of
the pattern and reductions in lapse rates/buoyancy, will hold off on
adding any SLGT risk/15% wind areas in this outlook. However, some
part of GA/AL/MS may need to be reconsidered in later updates.

...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon in
association with daytime heating, residual boundaries from prior
convection, and terrain circulations. Though vertical shear will be
weak, steepening low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading
could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid
afternoon into the evening.

...Western OK to northeast KS this afternoon/evening...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along
and ahead of weak front across KS, and farther to the south into the
strongly heated airmass and east edge of the midlevel moisture plume
now across west TX. Vertical shear will be weak through this
corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts
and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few
hours this afternoon/evening.

...MT this afternoon/evening...
A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move
across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep
mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for
strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms
along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this
evening.

..Thompson/Moore.. 06/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261235
SWODY1
SPC AC 261233

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN WI...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this
afternoon from northern Iowa and southwest Minnesota into southwest
Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area
of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and
Montana.

...Southern MN/IA/Southern WI...
Early morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV
moving northeastward into eastern NE. Surface analysis reveals a low
over eastern NE, which is associated with this vorticity maximum as
well. A stationary boundary extends northeastward from this low
through northwestern IA to another low in the MN/IA/WI border
intersection vicinity. This boundary, which separates a moist
airmass characterized by 70s dewpoints from a more continental
airmass with low 60s dewpoints, could act as a favored corridor for northeastward progress of the surface low throughout the day. At the
same time, strengthening southerly low-level flow will increase the
low-level moisture advection south of this boundary, resulting in
some tightening of this boundary throughout the day. Some guidance
suggests this boundary could move slightly northward as a warm front
as well. This low-level moisture advection will also help offset
surface dewpoint reductions due to mixing, with dewpoints likely
remaining in the 70s along and south of the boundary. Strong heating
of this moist airmass will bring temperatures in the upper 70s/low
80s, fostering airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy by the
early afternoon.

Thunderstorm development is expected as the approaching vorticity
maximum and associated surface low interact with this unstable
airmass, with initiation occurring both near the surface low as well
as farther east amid the convergence along the warm front. The
development near the low should becoming linear quickly while the
activity along the front should remain more cellular longer. The
initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential
to produce a few tornadoes within the moderately sheared and
vorticity rich environment along the front. Damaging gusts will be
possible with the linear segments as well, particularly in close
vicinity to the surface low where mesoscale circulations could
augment updrafts and downdrafts.

...Central/Eastern KS into Western/Central OK...
Recent surface analysis reveals weak surface troughing to the south
of a low over eastern NE. This troughing will likely shift eastward
as its parent low progresses northeastward, with convergence along
this boundary contributing to thunderstorms across central and
eastern KS. The character of the boundary will become more diffuse
with southern extent, but modest low-level confluence should still
be enough to support afternoon thunderstorm development. Vertical
shear will be weak through this entire corridor, but thermodynamic
profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening.

...Southeast...
Overnight convection has resulted in extensive cloudiness across
much of the region this morning. Even so, ample low-level moisture
remains in place and the airmass is expected to destabilize by the
early afternoon amid strong heating. Initial development appears
most likely near the westward progressing outflow moving across MS,
with additional development later near a convectively generated
vorticity maximum moving across central GA. Widespread storms are
also expected across FL as an upper low drifts slowly
west-northwestward. Shear will be weak areawide and a largely
disorganized storm mode is anticipated. Surging outflow is possible
with the strongest storms, fostering the potential for damaging
gusts and also contributing to additional storm development. Several forward-propagating clusters are possible although their location,
strength, and longevity are uncertain, precluding any increased
severe probabilities with this outlook.

...MT this afternoon/evening...
A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move
across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep
mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for
strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms
along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this
evening.

...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon as the
airmass destabilizes amid strong daytime heating and ample low-level
moisture. Residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain
circulations will act as favored areas for initiation. Vertical
shear will be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and
precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with
downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 06/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261611
SWODY1
SPC AC 261609

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this
afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota,
and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from
the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians.

...Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving
eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered
thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and
along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track
southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE
values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will
promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward
through early evening.

From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed
low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be
favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday
(although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few
tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians...
Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the
western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid
again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are
weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However,
steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again
result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the
afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft,
will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of
model guidance supporting the threat.

..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 262002
SWODY1
SPC AC 262000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this
afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota,
and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from
the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded
eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer
conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line
of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening.
Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the
severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will
continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in
southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward
out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado
probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this
scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details,
see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts
will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic
(within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464).

..Weinman.. 06/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/

...Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving
eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered
thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and
along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track
southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE
values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will
promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward
through early evening.

From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed
low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be
favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday
(although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few
tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians...
Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the
western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid
again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are
weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However,
steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again
result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the
afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft,
will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of
model guidance supporting the threat.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270057
SWODY1
SPC AC 270055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main
threats through late evening/early tonight from eastern Kansas into
southern Wisconsin, parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachians, the
Texas Panhandle, and eastern Montana.

...Eastern KS to southern WI through late evening...
Convection has evolved into a line of storms from northwest MO into
eastern IA and southwest WI along a conglomerate outflow, in advance
of a weak midlevel trough approaching the upper MS Valley.
Weakening buoyancy with the loss of daytime heating and weakening
vertical shear over time in the warm sector suggests that the storms
are likely past peak, though isolated wind damage will remain
possible for the next 2 hours or so before the storms weaken
sufficiently and the low levels stabilize.

...Mid-Atlantic and Appalachians through 03z...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in multiple small clusters from
central NC into VA/WV/MD and southern PA. A few strong storms with
isolated wind damage will be possible through about 02-03z,
especially with storm mergers, before gradual stabilization of the
boundary layer brings an end to the largely diurnal severe threat.

...TX Panhandle through late evening...
A few storm clusters are ongoing across the central TX Panhandle to
the TX/NM state line. Lingering steep low-level lapse rates, modest
vertical shear and storm/outflow mergers could maintain a marginal
severe threat for another few hours before buoyancy weakens and the
storms diminish.

...Eastern MT this evening...
Deep-layer vertical shear is not particularly strong and low-level
moisture is limited, but steep lapse rates through the low-midlevels
are sustaining a couple of stronger storm clusters across northeast
MT where low-level moisture is a bit richer. There will remain
sufficient midlevel moisture/ascent downstream of an ejecting
midlevel trough to maintain the potential for thunderstorms for the
next several hours. Isolated strong outflow gusts may occur with
the high-based convection into central MT, while isolated strong
gusts and marginally severe hail will remain possible this evening
across eastern MT.

..Thompson.. 06/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270505
SWODY1
SPC AC 270503

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon/evening across the Dakotas and Nebraska, where very large
hail and severe outflow winds will be possible. There will also be
a window of opportunity for tornadoes this evening across the
central Dakotas. Occasional wind damage will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Lower Michigan.

...Northern Plains late this afternoon into early tonight...
A low-amplitude midlevel trough with embedded speed maxima will move
eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains
through tonight. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected this
afternoon in the vicinity of northeast WY, while low-level moisture
spreads northward across the Dakotas through this evening. The
moistening will occur beneath an elevated mixed layer with midlevel
lapse rates of 8.5-9.5 C/km, and daytime heating will result in
MLCAPE exceeding 4000 J/kg. The elevated mixed layer will also act
as a cap and surface temperatures will need to reach the mid 90s in
SD and the mid-upper 80s in ND to largely eliminate convective
inhibition. As such, storm timing/coverage is a bit uncertain with
modest forcing for ascent.

Where storms form, the steep lapse rates/extreme buoyancy and
effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt will conditionally favor
supercells with very large hail (potentially greater than 3 inches
in diameter). There could also be a window of opportunity for
tornadoes as low-level shear increases in the evening, where storms
remain discrete prior to convective inhibition increasing tonight.
Otherwise, any storm clusters will have the potential to produce
severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph, especially in the deeper mixed
environment farther south in SD.

...Southeast Lower MI this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough and associated weak wave cyclone now
over the upper MS Valley will continue eastward over the upper Great
Lakes through this evening, while a trailing cold front crosses
Lower MI. Daytime heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low
70s in the warm sector will contribute to MLCAPE above 2000 J/kg
during the afternoon across Lower MI as convective inhibition
weakens. Low-level ascent along the front will support a broken
band of storms by mid afternoon, and the storms will spread eastward
before weakening by late evening. Though midlevel lapse rates and
deep-layer vertical shear will not be strong, ~35 kt midlevel flow
and steep low-level lapse rates suggest the potential for occasional
wind damage with multicell clusters and/or short line segments.

...Appalachians into the Southeast this afternoon/evening...
Another afternoon/evening of widely scattered thunderstorms and
isolated downburst potential is expected across a broad area from
the Appalachians into the Southeast/FL. Local sea breeze
circulations, terrain circulations and residual outflow/differential
heating zones will help focus thunderstorm development.
Thermodynamic profiles will be sufficient for isolated wind damage
with downbursts.

..Thompson/Lyons.. 06/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271211
SWODY1
SPC AC 271210

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon/evening across the Dakotas and Nebraska, where very large
hail and severe outflow winds will be possible. There will also be
a window of opportunity for tornadoes this evening across the
central Dakotas. Occasional wind damage will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Lower Michigan.

...Northern Plains late this afternoon into early tonight...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance
moving east across the northern Rockies. This upper feature and an
associated belt of stronger flow will move eastward into the
northern Great Plains tonight. In the low levels, southerly flow
will contribute to moisture return northward into the Dakotas as a
low develops near the SD/WY border. Steep midlevel lapse rates of
8.5-9.5 C/km, and daytime heating will result in MLCAPE exceeding
4000 J/kg within the moisture plume where boundary-layer moisture is
highest.

A cap will likely inhibit storm development through the mid
afternoon before heating and the resultant erosion of convective
inhibition favors initially isolated storm development. Forecast
soundings show very steep low to mid-tropospheric lapse rates, large
to extreme buoyancy, and effective shear supporting organized
storms. The initial activity will likely be supercellular with an
attendant risk for large to giant hail with the stronger supercells.
A period of opportunity for an isolated tornado risk may realize
during the early evening, coincident with a slight intensification
of low-level shear, while maintaining a favorable storm mode. A
couple of clusters are forecast to evolve during the evening with
significant gusts (75-90 mph) possible in the more intense clusters.
A lingering risk for mainly wind and perhaps hail will gradually
wane towards the late evening and early overnight as this activity
gradually shifts east.

...Southeast Lower MI this afternoon/evening...
Not much change to the previous forecast scenario. A midlevel
shortwave trough and associated weak wave cyclone now over the Upper
MS Valley will continue eastward over the Upper Great Lakes through
this evening, while a trailing cold front crosses Lower MI. Daytime
heating and lower 70s deg F dewpoints will yield moderate buoyancy
by the early afternoon. Low-level ascent along the front will
support a broken band of storms by mid afternoon, and the storms
will spread eastward before weakening by late evening. Though
midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear will not be
strong, ~35 kt midlevel flow and steep low-level lapse rates suggest
the potential for scattered 55-70 mph gusts capable of wind damage
with the stronger storms and linear clusters.

...Appalachians into the Southeast this afternoon/evening...
Another afternoon/evening of widely scattered thunderstorms and
isolated downburst potential is expected across a broad area from
the Appalachians into the Southeast/FL. Local sea breeze
circulations, terrain circulations and residual outflow/differential
heating zones will help focus thunderstorm development. The more
intense storms and small-scale clusters will likely yield a risk for
45-65 mph gusts and pockets of wind damage.

..Smith/Broyles.. 06/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271616
SWODY1
SPC AC 271614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN IN INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...AND THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon/evening
across the Dakotas and Nebraska, where very large hail, severe
outflow winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Occasional
wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Indiana
into southeast Lower Michigan.

...Dakotas/NE/MN...
Water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough moving
across MT. As this feature overspreads the northern Plains this afternoon/evening, scattered thunderstorm development is expected
from western ND into central/western SD. Storms will track
southeastward in a moist and very unstable air mass, where steep
mid-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear will support the development of supercells. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are
possible with this early activity. Congealing outflows after dark
may result in one or more bowing segments capable of severe wind
gusts. Have expanded the SLGT a little farther east into MN to
account for various morning CAM solutions.

...Lower MI...
Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies from northern IN into
southeast Lower MI, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon CAPE
values expected in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. A weak shortwave
trough will pass to the north of this area, providing weak lift and
aiding in thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. Steep
low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind gusts in
the stronger cells.

...East TN/north GA...
Another active day of scattered thunderstorms is expected, with
hot/humid conditions aiding in the risk of locally damaging wind
gusts and some hail in the stronger cells.

..Hart/Grams.. 06/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 272001
SWODY1
SPC AC 272000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon/evening
across the Dakotas and Nebraska, where very large hail, severe
outflow winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Occasional
wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Indiana
into southeast Lower Michigan.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced
risk over parts of central ND -- driven by 30-percent hail
probabilities. Based on the latest high-resolution guidance and
observations, confidence has increased that several semi-discrete
supercells capable of producing very large hail will evolve along
the northern periphery of strong to extreme surface-based buoyancy
and very favorable deep-layer shear into tonight. Elsewhere, only
minor changes were made to the outlook. For information on the
severe risk in Lower MI and northern IN, reference Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 466.

..Weinman.. 06/27/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025/

...Dakotas/NE/MN...
Water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough moving
across MT. As this feature overspreads the northern Plains this afternoon/evening, scattered thunderstorm development is expected
from western ND into central/western SD. Storms will track
southeastward in a moist and very unstable air mass, where steep
mid-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear will support the development of supercells. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are
possible with this early activity. Congealing outflows after dark
may result in one or more bowing segments capable of severe wind
gusts. Have expanded the SLGT a little farther east into MN to
account for various morning CAM solutions.

...Lower MI...
Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies from northern IN into
southeast Lower MI, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon CAPE
values expected in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. A weak shortwave
trough will pass to the north of this area, providing weak lift and
aiding in thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. Steep
low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind gusts in
the stronger cells.

...East TN/north GA...
Another active day of scattered thunderstorms is expected, with
hot/humid conditions aiding in the risk of locally damaging wind
gusts and some hail in the stronger cells.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280042
SWODY1
SPC AC 280041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern
Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few
tornadoes can be expected.

...01z Update...

Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains
early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across
the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND.
Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along
the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from
BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel
lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary
that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing
into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is
approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of
Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream
later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the
short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked
increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing
convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate
downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River
region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing
supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds
may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening.

..Darrow.. 06/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280542
SWODY1
SPC AC 280541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, perhaps including one or
two organizing clusters, will pose a risk for severe hail, wind and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes across parts of the Upper Midwest into
the Plains of South Dakota and Nebraska.

...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota...

Seasonally typical early summer pattern will be noted today as
stronger westerlies are confined to the northern U.S., and much
weaker flow is observed across the southern two-thirds of the CONUS.
Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a few weak disturbances are
translating across the northern Rockies toward the northern Plains
and this will shunt the primary synoptic boundary across much of the
Dakotas into the upper MS Valley by early evening. This boundary
will prove instrumental in focusing deep convection during the afternoon/evening hours.

Early this morning, scattered clusters of strong/severe
thunderstorms are propagating southeast across the eastern Dakotas.
This activity will advance into the upper MS Valley early in the
period as LLJ focuses across eastern SD into northern MN. While some
severe threat will be noted with a possible MCS at daybreak,
convective outflow will largely influence subsequent regeneration.
Latest model guidance suggests an east-west boundary will drape
itself across western WI/southern MN by 18z, likely modified by the aforementioned early-day MCS. Boundary-layer heating is expected to
aid buoyancy across the Dakotas southeast of the cold front, and
scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift
by late afternoon, aided in part by a weak short wave trough.
Additional convection is also possible along the outflow. Wind
profiles favor some supercell development, along with possible
clusters. Very large hail could accompany supercells. The east-west
boundary should enhance low-level shear such that a higher
probability for tornadoes will exist across southern portions of MN.

Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT
Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind
will be the primary concerns.

...Northern Middle Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley...

Weak short-wave trough is advancing east across the upper Great
Lakes region early this morning. Southern influence of this feature
will encourage convective development by 18z across the upper OH
Valley into upstate NY. Modest west-southwesterly flow at mid levels
suggests some convective organization is possible; however, poor
lapse rates and modest instability should result in mainly a
damaging wind threat with the most organized convection. Some
consideration was given for higher probabilities across portions of
the northern Middle Atlantic into southern NY, but weak lapse rates
are concerning and deep-layer shear is not that strong. Even so,
gusty winds will likely be noted with this activity as it spreads
across PA/NY toward the western parts of southern New England.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281201
SWODY1
SPC AC 281200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe
hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern
South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of
New York into Pennsylvania.

...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota...
Broad weak troughing per morning water-vapor imagery over the
northern Rockies/High Plains will gradually shift eastward and
become centered over MB/SK and the Dakotas by the end of the period.
A somewhat ill-defined boundary this morning will become draped from
parts of the upper MS Valley west-southwestward into the Black Hills
later this afternoon/evening.

Residual clusters of showers/weak thunderstorms this morning will
likely dissipate by mid-late morning over the Upper Midwest. The
resultant convective outflow will probably prove instrumental in
renewed thunderstorm activity later this afternoon where
differential heating/convergence will become focused.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along the front/composite outflow by late afternoon when buoyancy will be
maximized. Forecast soundings show 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing
from eastern SD into MN/western WI. It appears sufficient hodograph
curvature and effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will support a
supercell mode, at least initially. All severe hazards will be
possible. Gradual upscale growth into a cluster may occur during
the evening --supported by a persistent southwesterly LLJ-- with the
risk gradually favoring more of a wind threat.

Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT
Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind
will be the primary concerns.

...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley...
Morning satellite imagery indicates a weak mid-level trough near
Georgian Bay/southern ON. This feature is forecast to move eastward
to the VT/NH/QC vicinity by early evening and glance NY/PA. In
agreement with earlier forecast thinking, the southern extent of the disturbance's influence will aid in storm development within the
northeast extent of richer moisture extending from the upper OH
Valley into the PA/southern NY area. Initial extensive low cloud
cover will gradually abate as diurnal heating aids in moderate
destabilization by midday from southern NY southwestward into the
upper OH Valley. Bands of smaller storm clusters preferentially
developing on the front/wind shift will predominately be
multicellular, and pose a wind-damage risk across parts of PA during
the afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger low to mid-level
flow over NY may favor a mix of strong to severe multicells and
perhaps transient, weak supercell structure. Farther south,
slow-moving isolated to scattered pulse-like storms will yield an
isolated risk for 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage with the
more intense water-loaded downdrafts.

..Smith/Broyles.. 06/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281627
SWODY1
SPC AC 281626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. OTHER SEVERE
STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION INTO PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe
hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern
South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of
New York into Pennsylvania.

...Eastern SD/MN/WI...
Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across
southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary
into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in
general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover
in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm
development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the
models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection,
but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes,
very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over
parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but
will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the
ongoing convection and trends in destabilization.

...Western SD Vicinity...
Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of
eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late
afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively
more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense
storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening
and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern
SD/northern NE.

...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic...
A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA
today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the
front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the
afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over
eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should
commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the
west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 282001
SWODY1
SPC AC 282000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe
hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern
South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of
New York into Pennsylvania.

...20Z Update...

The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat
farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota
and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and
developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large
hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion.

Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast.

..Marsh.. 06/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/

...Eastern SD/MN/WI...
Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across
southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary
into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in
general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover
in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm
development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the
models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection,
but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes,
very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over
parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but
will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the
ongoing convection and trends in destabilization.

...Western SD Vicinity...
Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of
eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late
afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively
more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense
storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening
and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern
SD/northern NE.

...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic...
A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA
today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the
front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the
afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over
eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should
commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the
west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290050
SWODY1
SPC AC 290049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest
and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight
hours. All severe hazards are possible.

...01z Update...

Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper
Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern
Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably
diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is
maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River
Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at
this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in
excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered
supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity
could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak
boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated
low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE
around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining
organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with
these storms into the late-evening hours.

Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will
shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated
thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of
Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development
ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region.
Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across
Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history
of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may
remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD
later this evening.

..Darrow.. 06/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290551
SWODY1
SPC AC 290550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the
primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High
Plains.

...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains...

Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern
Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS
Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain
seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of
this corridor is low.

Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from
northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This
boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central
IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely
serve as the focus for robust convection during the
afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in
convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will
be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE.
Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary
over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near
100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this
environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the
relative weak shear across this region.

Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread
across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate
southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential
heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may
propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth
possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal
is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern
KS into northwest MO into the evening.

Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is
across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest
flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along
the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to
develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this
region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but
modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should
spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are
expected.

...Middle Atlantic...

Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level
flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and
clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should
focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should
extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are
the primary concern.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291232
SWODY1
SPC AC 291230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the
primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High
Plains.

...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains...
Belt of stronger westerlies will remain confined to the
U.S.-Canadian border states as a mid- to upper-level trough shifts
east from the MT/ND vicinity into the Upper Midwest late. A surface
front is analyzed this morning from the Upper Midwest, where it is
ill defined and modulated by convective outflow, southwestward into
northern KS and arcing west-northwest into the central High Plains.
Some eastward movement is forecast during the day across the Upper
Midwest whereas the frontal segment over the central Great Plains
will become stationary this afternoon. This boundary and associated
composite outflow will serve as the primary focus for renewed shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon into tonight.

A decaying MCS over western IA/southeast NE this morning will
further weaken and an ongoing corridor of weak thunderstorms extends
southeast from the MCS through the lower MO Valley. Removed from
cloud debris, strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer
will result in strong destabilization from WI southwestward into KS,
where 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon. The
aforementioned displacement of this region from stronger mid and
high-level flow will limit potential for greater storm organization.
However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve into
several small-scale bands and clusters from the western Great Lakes
into the lower MO Valley posing mainly a wind risk with the stronger
storms. Stronger heating farther west over central KS westward into
parts of the central High Plains will result in steep low to
mid-level tropospheric lapse rates. Evaporative cooling of stronger water-laden downdrafts will yield a threat for severe gusts across
the central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley. Hail may
accompany the stronger cores, but this risk will be limited by a
deep melting layer and a multicellular storm mode. A couple of
clusters may persist through the evening and into the overnight as
this activity shifts southward, perhaps into southeast KS and
northern OK late.

Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is
across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest
flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along
the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to
develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this
region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but
modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should
spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are
expected.

...Mid Atlantic states...
A moist and moderately unstable airmass will favor isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon across the
region. High PW and steepened surface to 850-mb lapse rates amidst
weak shear will result in relatively disorganized individual storms
and smaller clusters. Localized strong to severe gusts (50-60 mph)
may result and yield pockets of wind damage with the stronger cores.

..Smith/Broyles.. 06/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291632
SWODY1
SPC AC 291630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the
primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High
Plains.

...Eastern KS/Western MO...
An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an
associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into
south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the
boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of
afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the
SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind
gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further
short-term details.

...WY/CO/SD/NE...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing
associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY,
high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as
they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed
low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE
Panhandle.

Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this
afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are
less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at
least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are
possible.

...IA/WI...
Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist
air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will
develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across
central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day.
Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective
organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level
lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and
some hail in the strongest cells.

..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 292002
SWODY1
SPC AC 292000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the
primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High
Plains.

...20Z Update...
The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central
Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms
is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The
primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For
information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added
along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and
far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is
diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture.
Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized
tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor.

Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over
northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm
clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have
the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep
deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs.
Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow
boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this
general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and
steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible.

Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe
risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High
Plains severe risk.

..Weinman.. 06/29/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/

...Eastern KS/Western MO...
An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an
associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into
south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the
boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of
afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the
SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind
gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further
short-term details.

...WY/CO/SD/NE...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing
associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY,
high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as
they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed
low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE
Panhandle.

Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this
afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are
less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at
least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are
possible.

...IA/WI...
Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist
air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will
develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across
central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day.
Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective
organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level
lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and
some hail in the strongest cells.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300058
SWODY1
SPC AC 300056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this
evening across the central/Southern Plains and Ozarks. More
isolated severe storms are possible across the Great lakes and upper
Midwest. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across
portions of the High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing from southern SD to
eastern WY/CO and into western KS/NE. Moderate instability and
elongated hodographs will continue to support supercells. Hail and
damaging winds will remain likely this evening.

With time, upscale growth into one or more larger clusters appears
likely across the eastern CO Plains and western NE/KS. Modest
forcing for ascent and effective shear suggest the degree of
organization of any clusters that form is somewhat uncertain.
Confidence in greater storm organization is highest across parts of
KS/NE along the sagging cold front. Here, large buoyancy and locally
stronger forcing may allow for more efficient upscale growth. Should
a more organized MCS develop, a conditional risk for gusts upward of
75 mph is possible across parts of the central Plains tonight.

...Ozarks to central KS...
An ongoing complex of thunderstorms with an established cold pool is
likely to persist into this evening amidst a very buoyant (4000 J/kg
MUCAPE) but weakly sheared air mass across the Ozarks and southern
Plains. Model guidance and observational trends suggest a gradual
weakening of the entire complex is likely with southward extent this
evening, related to the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of
broader deep-layer ascent. Still, isolated damaging gusts remain
possible across northern AR and southern MO.

To the west, new thunderstorm development across parts of
south-central KS and northeastern OK will likely be the new focus
for stronger storms on the flanks of the surging outflow tonight.
Given the degree of buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts and some hail
are possible. One or more clusters of strong to occasionally severe
storms are likely, and may persist into northern OK and southern KS
tonight.

...Great Lakes to the upper Midwest...
Isolated storm development remains possible this evening along
trailing outflow and a weak cold front from southern WI to IA.
Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective
organization is expected to be low. Still, remaining instability
and moist surface conditions will promote occasional strong
downdrafts this evening.

..Lyons.. 06/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300602
SWODY1
SPC AC 300600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across
parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the
Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be
ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves
southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At
the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains,
keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of
the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast.
At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the
Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely
ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible.

...Midwest and Great lakes...
Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with
dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A
messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud
debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through
the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the
approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several
loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are
likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal
potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2
inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential,
with the stronger storms.

...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic...
A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm
coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning
amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over
the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some
clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level
lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some
consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind
potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid
Atlantic states.

...Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of
sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains
and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub
tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will
support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered
thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along
remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical
wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong
to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and
occasional hail.

...Northern CA into southern OR...
Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will
aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and
southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical
terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based
thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic
lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb
will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts.
MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also
support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores.

..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301250
SWODY1
SPC AC 301248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts
of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern
Oregon and northern California today.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the
Dakotas/Upper Midwest, and this feature is forecast to move into the
Great Lakes by tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will
build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the
north. Farther west, an upper trough/low will meander slowly
eastward over the eastern Pacific towards the CA coast. At the
surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the
Midwest to the southern Plains.

...Southern Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states...
A myriad of prior convective outflow in addition to the cold front
will serve as foci for storm development today. Ahead of the
slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture and heating will
lead to moderate to strong destabilization in areas void of
persistent early day cloud debris. Small clusters and bands of
storms may locally concentrate some damaging-wind threat, but
predictability of these meso-beta corridors remains uncertain.
Nonetheless, scattered storms will gradually progress east and
southward during the day and through the evening across the Marginal
Risk area. Strong to severe downdrafts will be the primary severe
threat, but large hail may occur with a few storms over parts of the
southern Plains where lapse rates/buoyancy are greater than areas
farther northeast. The overall severe threat will likely remain
tempered by weak to modest mid-level flow.

...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ...
Strong heating of an adequately moist airmass will result in
appreciable buoyancy by peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms
developing within an environment characterized by very steep lapse
rates and inverted-v profiles, will support isolated severe gusts
(60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts during
the late afternoon and early evening.

...Northern CA into southern OR...
Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast,
southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across
parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with
weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to
scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse
rates and a deep, dry sub cloud layer will favor evaporatively
cooled downdrafts capable of isolated 55-65 mph gusts.

..Smith/Broyles.. 06/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301629
SWODY1
SPC AC 301628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts
of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern
Oregon and northern California today.

...Southern OK/Northwest TX...
Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary
extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the
boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the
mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon,
propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft
are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization.
However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates
will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail
will also be possible in the strongest updrafts.

...PA/NY...
A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of
NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000
J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which
will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit
the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong
to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible.
Refer to MCD #1522 for further details.

...NM/Southeast AZ...
Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the
mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead
to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind
gusts in some of this activity.

...Upper MI/WI...
A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the
Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and
increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered
late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI.
Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms.

...Northern CA/Southern OR...
Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast,
southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across
parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with
weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to
scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse
rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 302004
SWODY1
SPC AC 302002

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Valid 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts
of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern
Oregon and northern California today.

...20Z Update...
Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale
Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below.

..Guyer.. 06/30/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/

...Southern OK/Northwest TX...
Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary
extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the
boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the
mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon,
propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft
are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization.
However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates
will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail
will also be possible in the strongest updrafts.

...PA/NY...
A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of
NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000
J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which
will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit
the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong
to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible.
Refer to MCD #1522 for further details.

...NM/Southeast AZ...
Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the
mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead
to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind
gusts in some of this activity.

...Upper MI/WI...
A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the
Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and
increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered
late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI.
Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms.

...Northern CA/Southern OR...
Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast,
southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across
parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with
weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to
scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse
rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010043
SWODY1
SPC AC 010042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...RED RIVER REGION OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHWESTERN BORDER AREA...AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong, to locally severe, thunderstorms will persist for a
few hours this evening. Damaging gusts are the primary concern.

...01z Update...

Diurnal heating, and steepening of the boundary layer, has been the
primary instigator for scattered convection across much of the CONUS
this afternoon. Many areas have been efficiently overturned and with
onset of nocturnal cooling, further stabilization is expected this
evening. Even so, for the next few hours a few pockets of robust
convection will likely persist. Moderate to strong buoyancy is noted
across the Delmarva and the Red River region of southern OK/north
TX. Deep convection may continue to generate locally strong winds
until this activity weakens by mid evening.

Isolated wind gusts may also accompany high-based convection across
southeast AZ/southern NM, and near the OR/CA border. Boundary-layer
cooling will also contribute to further weakening, along with a
lessening severe threat.

..Darrow.. 07/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010549
SWODY1
SPC AC 010548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. An isolated
severe storm may also occur over parts of the High Plains.

...Middle Atlantic...

Upper trough currently located over the upper Great Lakes, extending
into central MO, is forecast to shift into the OH Valley by late
afternoon before advancing across the northern/central Appalachians
by the end of the period. At the surface, a cold front will progress
into the upper OH Valley early in the period and this will serve as
the focus for scattered thunderstorms by mid day.

Early this morning, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak
low-amplitude short-wave trough is embedded within the base of the
larger trough along the IL/IN border. Radar data supports this with
a few clusters of thunderstorms extending from western IN into
western TN. Current speed/movement of this feature would place this
short wave into southern OH/eastern KY by 18z. While low-level lapse
rates are not forecast to be that steep across the Middle Atlantic,
modest southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to adequate
shear, supporting organized line segments/clusters. Current thinking
is scattered thunderstorms will readily develop ahead of this
feature, and a marked increase in convection should be noted into
the mid afternoon across southern PA into northern VA. Latest HREF
guidance supports this scenario, and forecast soundings favor
damaging winds with convection that develops within a high-PW air
mass, despite marginal lapse rates/instability. Strong-severe
convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the
evening.

...High Plains...

A weak short-wave trough appears to be topping the Rockies ridge
over eastern ID/southern MT early this morning. This feature will
begin to dig southeast toward the Black Hills, eventually migrating
into the lower MO Valley by the end of the period. As a result, a
weak lee trough should extend across eastern WY during the late
afternoon and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the High Plains of western SD into the NE Panhandle/northeast CO.
Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk across this region but
activity may prove too sparse to warrant higher severe
probabilities. Even so, wind profiles suggest a few slow-moving
supercells could develop. With LLJ expected to strengthen across
this region after sunset, this would favor a few longer-lived
storms. If it appears coverage will be a bit more expansive then
currently forecast, a SLGT Risk may be warranted.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 07/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011249
SWODY1
SPC AC 011247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few
severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and
South Dakota.

...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast and Southeast...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates an upper trough is moving
east across the Great Lakes/lower OH Valley and other minor
perturbations are located over the Mid South. The primary
disturbance will overspread the Appalachians by mid-late evening.
In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the southern Great
Lakes into the lower OH Valley/Mid South will gradually progress
east/southeast during the period.

12 UTC raob data from the OH Valley and Mid South eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic region shows a very moist troposphere with limited
700-500 mb lapse rates (less than 5.5 deg C/km). Nonetheless,
diurnal heating of the moist boundary layer will result in moderate
buoyancy from portions of the Northeast southwestward through the
Mid-Atlantic states and into the Southeast. Models continue to
indicate modest southwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic
states will contribute to adequate shear, supporting some
organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered
thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous
thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east
across PA/WV/VA/MD. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible
with the stronger downdrafts. Less organized but scattered to
numerous storms are forecast farther southwest into portions of the
southern Appalachians with a risk for damaging gusts with the
stronger storms. Strong-severe convection should spread off the
Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening.

...Black Hills into the central High Plains...
A weak mid-level disturbance is moving east across northern
WY/southern MT towards the SD/NE vicinity later today. A weak lee
trough will likely serve as a focus for thunderstorm development
this afternoon from near the Black Hills southward into northeast
CO. Forecast soundings show around 30-kt effective shear in the
presence of steep lapse rates and moderate MLCAPE (1000-2500 J/kg).
Some of the recent MPAS guidance indicates a few stronger
thunderstorms will develop across western NE and perhaps into
western SD. A couple of supercells with an attendant large-hail
risk are possible, thereby prompting an increase in hail
probabilities this outlook update. Some severe risk may linger into
the mid-late evening coincident with a strengthening of a southerly
LLJ centered over west-central NE before this activity dissipates.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011606
SWODY1
SPC AC 011604

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few
severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and
South Dakota.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
extending from western QC through the middle OH Valley into the Mid
MS Valley. Regional radar imagery depicts showers and thunderstorms
preceding this wave from across the mid/upper OH Valley, with the
stronger storms occurring along an associated cold front that
extends from far western NY southwestward across western PA and
along the WV/OH border through eastern KY.

The general expectation throughout the day is for this shortwave
trough and associated cold front to progress eastward into the
increasingly moist and unstable airmass downstream, promoting
widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate
mid-level flow extends through the eastern periphery of this wave,
with the strongest flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) expected to
move across NY and New England. Given the more northern trajectory
of the stronger flow, there will be limited overlap between the
strongest flow and the better buoyancy, which will remain farther
south across the Mid-Atlantic. Even so, the overall environment will
support some organization of storms into line segments/clusters.
Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and
numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while
moving east from PA/WV in NJ/VA/MD. Recently issued MCD #1529 also
addresses the severe potential in this region. More limited storm
coverage is anticipated farther north. Strong to severe gusts (50-65
mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts.

...Black Hills/SD into the Central High Plains...
A weak shortwave trough is currently progressing through eastern MT
and eastern WY, throughout the northern periphery of the upper
ridging that extends from the southern Plains through the northern
Rockies. This wave is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward,
eventually interacting with the moderate low-level moisture expected
to advect northward across western portions of KS, NE and SD. Ascent
attendant to this wave will augment low-level convergence near an
associated surface low to foster afternoon thunderstorm development.
Low-level southerly flow veering to northwesterly aloft will foster
moderate effective shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt) and the potential for a
couple of supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these
storms.

Some additional thunderstorms are possible later tonight across far
southern ND and central/eastern SD as a strengthening low-level jet
contributes to warm-air advection across a developing warm frontal
zone. Moderate shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a
few stronger storms capable of producing isolated large hail.

...Central Appalachians into the Southeast...
Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across a large area from the
central Appalachians and Carolinas southwestward into the Southeast,
along or just ahead of a weak, eastward-progressing cold front.
Limited vertical shear should promote less organized storms,
although a few strong, water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing
damaging winds are possible.

..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011929
SWODY1
SPC AC 011927

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few
severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and
South Dakota.

...20z Update...
A Marginal Risk was added across southwestern MT into central ID
with this outlook. While instability is modest, lapse rates are
steep and forecast soundings show characteristic inverted-v. This
suggests that the widely scattered thunderstorm activity this
afternoon will be capable of occasionally strong to severe winds,
supporting addition of a 5% wind risk. Otherwise, the outlook
remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more
information.

..Thornton.. 07/01/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/

...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
extending from western QC through the middle OH Valley into the Mid
MS Valley. Regional radar imagery depicts showers and thunderstorms
preceding this wave from across the mid/upper OH Valley, with the
stronger storms occurring along an associated cold front that
extends from far western NY southwestward across western PA and
along the WV/OH border through eastern KY.

The general expectation throughout the day is for this shortwave
trough and associated cold front to progress eastward into the
increasingly moist and unstable airmass downstream, promoting
widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate
mid-level flow extends through the eastern periphery of this wave,
with the strongest flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) expected to
move across NY and New England. Given the more northern trajectory
of the stronger flow, there will be limited overlap between the
strongest flow and the better buoyancy, which will remain farther
south across the Mid-Atlantic. Even so, the overall environment will
support some organization of storms into line segments/clusters.
Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and
numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while
moving east from PA/WV in NJ/VA/MD. Recently issued MCD #1529 also
addresses the severe potential in this region. More limited storm
coverage is anticipated farther north. Strong to severe gusts (50-65
mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts.

...Black Hills/SD into the Central High Plains...
A weak shortwave trough is currently progressing through eastern MT
and eastern WY, throughout the northern periphery of the upper
ridging that extends from the southern Plains through the northern
Rockies. This wave is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward,
eventually interacting with the moderate low-level moisture expected
to advect northward across western portions of KS, NE and SD. Ascent
attendant to this wave will augment low-level convergence near an
associated surface low to foster afternoon thunderstorm development.
Low-level southerly flow veering to northwesterly aloft will foster
moderate effective shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt) and the potential for a
couple of supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these
storms.

Some additional thunderstorms are possible later tonight across far
southern ND and central/eastern SD as a strengthening low-level jet
contributes to warm-air advection across a developing warm frontal
zone. Moderate shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a
few stronger storms capable of producing isolated large hail.

...Central Appalachians into the Southeast...
Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across a large area from the
central Appalachians and Carolinas southwestward into the Southeast,
along or just ahead of a weak, eastward-progressing cold front.
Limited vertical shear should promote less organized storms,
although a few strong, water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing
damaging winds are possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020058
SWODY1
SPC AC 020056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over
parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary
risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple
more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of
the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface
lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area
VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail
threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next
several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also
develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale
growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more
details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A
separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later
tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection
regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...
Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An
isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of
moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear
and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall
severe threat this evening.

..Gleason.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020530
SWODY1
SPC AC 020529

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western
periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current
expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop
initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and
subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even
with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain
modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place
across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm
downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced
mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should
occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through
this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe
winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities
with this update.

...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of
the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low
over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may
limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse
rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that
a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV
into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread
northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated
severe wind gusts possible.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough
over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale
ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably
moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these
regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of
moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some
enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and
a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms
remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective
coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore
maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these
regions with minimal changes.

...Eastern North Carolina...
Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves
slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft
will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also
expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through
the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and
vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too
limited to include low severe probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021251
SWODY1
SPC AC 021250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this
afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur
today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough/low centered
over CA with downstream upper ridging centered over the
north-central Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains. Modest
mid- to high-level west-southwesterly 500-250 mb flow (20-50 kt) is
forecast to remain across the northern Rockies and plains per model
data. Surface observations this morning show 40s to lower 50s deg F
dewpoints over MT. Strong heating will contribute to weak to
moderate buoyancy over the plains (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) and very
steep lapse rates from the surface into the mid levels. Orographic
ascent will likely lead to isolated to scattered storms developing
by mid afternoon initially over southern MT and other
terrain-favored locales. This activity is forecast to spread
north/northeast during the late afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm
coverage will probably increase by the early evening in the form of
a few clusters and perhaps linearly oriented outflow surges.
Evaporative cooling will facilitate efficient downdrafts and severe
gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores.

...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of
the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low
over CA and the western Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms should
spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with
isolated severe wind gusts possible.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough
over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale
ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Model
guidance varies considerably on storm coverage, which is likely
related to capping concerns especially with westward extent into the SD/IA/southwest MN vicinity. Nonetheless, a seasonably
moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these
regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of
moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some
enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms with
an attendant hail/wind risk with the stronger storms.

...Eastern North Carolina...
Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves
slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft
will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also
expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through
the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and
vicinity, the potential for damaging winds continues to appear to be
too limited for low probabilities.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021634
SWODY1
SPC AC 021632

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this
afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur
today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains...
Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending
from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly
drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western
periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay
well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity
maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast
to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated
with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps
additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving
across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high
terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm
coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the
afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening.
Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm
structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates
will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts,
particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant.

...Western Great Basin...
Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and
evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into
central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern
periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high
LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to
scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm
coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is
over southern NV.

...AZ...
12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning
and the expectation is that this moisture will support the
development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this
afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher
terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower
elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe
gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests
the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all,
which should limit the overall severe potential.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI,
Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this
front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are
possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will
support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger
storms.

Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther
west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There
is some chance development occurs along the front during the
afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to
overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears
more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level
jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and
vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large
hail are possible.

...Eastern NC...
Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance
eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these
features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft
strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well.
A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest
storms.

..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021942
SWODY1
SPC AC 021941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this
afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur
today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

...20z Update...
There are no changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/

...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains...
Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending
from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly
drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western
periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay
well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity
maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast
to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated
with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps
additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving
across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high
terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm
coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the
afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening.
Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm
structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates
will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts,
particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant.

...Western Great Basin...
Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and
evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into
central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern
periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high
LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to
scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm
coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is
over southern NV.

...AZ...
12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning
and the expectation is that this moisture will support the
development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this
afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher
terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower
elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe
gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests
the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all,
which should limit the overall severe potential.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI,
Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this
front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are
possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will
support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger
storms.

Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther
west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There
is some chance development occurs along the front during the
afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to
overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears
more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level
jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and
vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large
hail are possible.

...Eastern NC...
Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance
eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these
features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft
strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well.
A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest
storms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030101
SWODY1
SPC AC 030059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorm gusts remain
possible across parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho and Montana this
evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur over portions
of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Convection has developed this afternoon/evening along the western
and northern periphery of upper troughing centered over the High
Plains. Surface observations and various forecast soundings suggest
a very well mixed airmass is present from eastern OR into the
northern Rockies/High Plains, with surface temperature/dewpoint
spreads of 30-40+ F common. While instability and deep-layer shear
are both forecast to remain fairly modest, there may be some loosely
organized clusters posing a threat for isolated to scattered severe
winds this evening. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms and
severe winds may still focus across parts of central/eastern MT over
the next several hours, where the Slight Risk has been maintained.
See Mesoscale Discussion 1544 for more details on the short-term
severe threat across this area.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Widely scattered thunderstorms should continue across parts the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this evening, as the glancing
influence of upper troughing over Ontario and the northern Great
Lakes overspreads this region. Modest low-level flow per area VWPs
gradually veers to northwesterly at mid/upper levels, which is
supporting around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional
thunderstorm organization has been noted with the ongoing activity
given a sufficiently unstable airmass, and isolated damaging
winds/hail should remain possible for a couple more hours before
convection eventually weakens later this evening.

...Great Basin/Southwest...
Convection earlier today has largely overturned the airmass across
much of NV into western UT. Occasional strong to severe gusts will
remain possible with any ongoing/additional convection across the
Sierra into the Great Basin and Southwest where low-level lapse
rates remain steepened. But, overall severe wind potential is
expected to remain rather isolated, with a small Marginal Risk for
wind maintained across parts of southern NV and vicinity where
low-level lapse rates remain steepened amid 30-40 kt of southerly
deep-layer shear.

..Gleason.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030532
SWODY1
SPC AC 030530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and
northern Plains today.

...Northeast...
An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum
will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front
will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist
low-level airmass will support the development of moderate
instability along/ahead of the cold front by late morning/early
afternoon. Aided by the enhanced mid-level flow, deep-layer shear
will likely be strong enough to support updraft organization,
including a mix of multicells and perhaps some supercells. Scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary severe threat as
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may
occur given favorable shear, especially if any supercells can be
sustained. The Slight Risk has been expanded northward to include
more of New England, as recent guidance trends show potential for
organized severe convection along/ahead much of the length of the
front.

...Northern Plains...
An upper ridge will persist over much of the Plains today. Even so,
a weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to advance eastward from MT
across the northern Plains this afternoon/evening on the northern
periphery of the upper ridge. This feature should encourage isolated
to scattered intense thunderstorm development along/near a warm
front extending across parts of ND by late afternoon/early evening.
Moderate to strong instability is expected along/near this boundary,
aided by steep lapse rates aloft. Modest low-level southerly flow is
forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through
mid/upper levels. This will support sufficient deep-layer shear
(30-40 kt) for organized convection, including some supercells
initially across western/central ND. These supercells should pose a
threat for scattered large hail, some of which may be 2+ inches in
diameter given a rather favorable thermodynamic environment
forecast. With time this evening, there may be some potential for
upscale growth into a small bowing cluster with eastward extent into central/eastern ND. If this mode transition occurs, then the
severe/damaging wind threat would likewise increase. Although
low-level flow should remain fairly modest, a tornado or two also
appears possible, particularly along/near the front where effective
SRH should be locally enhanced.

...Upper Midwest...
Compared to the northern Plains, there is generally less confidence
in overall thunderstorm coverage and development across much of the
Upper Midwest through the period. Weak forcing aloft and the
persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective
development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass.
Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest
low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an
isolated severe hail/wind threat. The Marginal Risk area has been
adjusted northward/westward some based on latest guidance trends
showing multiple potential zones of isolated strong/severe
thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031214
SWODY1
SPC AC 031213

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA
AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and
northern Plains today.

...Northern Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over
western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream
minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward
into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this
feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central
High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone
draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest.

A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface
observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F
over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep
700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and
very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level
moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to
develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very
large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells
before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one
or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced
a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85
mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some
00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes
higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken
late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent
portions of northern MN.

...Northeast...
An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum
will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front
will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist
airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient
deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient
supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should
be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually
steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear,
especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish
by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast.

...Upper Midwest...
Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should
tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to
strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can
develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this
evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031622
SWODY1
SPC AC 031620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA
AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and
northern Plains today.

...Northeast...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern
QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of
this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant
cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is
for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast,
with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The
leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has
already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development
where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued
destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly
continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy,
moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of
buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable
of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode)
and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear
modes).

This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so
the potential exists for additional development across NY this
afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late
afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to
those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts
possible with these storms as well.

...Northern Plains...
Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the
region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and
keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening.
This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to
3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a
modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the
central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the
westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z.
Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and
far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND
over time.

A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany
initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale
growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this
upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is
anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An
instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible.

...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest...
Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking
east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream
from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a
result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity
of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible.

A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the
ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther
east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air
advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate
to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in
place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail,
particularly with initial development. Storms should continue
throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk.

..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031930
SWODY1
SPC AC 031929

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA
AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and
northern Plains today.

...20z Updates...
Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove
probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal
Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New
York where severe storms are crossing the international border from
Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information.

Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at
this time. See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/

...Northeast...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern
QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of
this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant
cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is
for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast,
with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The
leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has
already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development
where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued
destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly
continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy,
moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of
buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable
of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode)
and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear
modes).

This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so
the potential exists for additional development across NY this
afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late
afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to
those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts
possible with these storms as well.

...Northern Plains...
Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the
region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and
keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening.
This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to
3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a
modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the
central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the
westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z.
Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and
far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND
over time.

A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany
initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale
growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this
upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is
anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An
instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible.

...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest...
Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking
east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream
from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a
result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity
of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible.

A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the
ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther
east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air
advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate
to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in
place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail,
particularly with initial development. Storms should continue
throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040059
SWODY1
SPC AC 040058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern
Plains this evening into the early overnight hours.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the
northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining
prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent
associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and
eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective
development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee
trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A
moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND
this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This
favorable environment should support supercells with a large to
isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in
diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but
organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection
spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening
low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds
with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible.

On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of
convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This
activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in
the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability
and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this
convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm
temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated
thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an
arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with
increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may
pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the
presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the
overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated.

...Northeast...
Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally
moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for
organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional
strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across
parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately
across far eastern MA and vicinity.

..Gleason.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040557
SWODY1
SPC AC 040555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with mainly a wind threat
are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the
northern/central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley.
Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur today from eastern
Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging initially over the Plains and Upper Midwest this
morning should gradually become more positively tilted as it shifts
eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest and MS Valley through the
period. Multiple mid-level perturbations will round the upper ridge
today, with the most notable shortwave trough advancing eastward
from the central Rockies to the northern Plains this afternoon and
evening. A separate upper trough/low will move inland across the
Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies. At the surface, a
seasonably moist low-level airmass will reside to the south of a
front over the northern Plains, and east of lee troughing along much
of the length of the High Plains. The cold front is forecast to make
only slow east-southeastward progress across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest through this evening.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Daytime heating should encourage the development of moderate to
locally strong MLCAPE along/ahead of the front by early afternoon
across the northern Plains. Current expectations are for scattered
to numerous thunderstorms to develop along the length of the surface
boundary in the Dakotas as forcing for ascent associated with a
mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. While mid-level
flow and related deep-layer shear are not forecast to be overly
strong, they should still be sufficient for some updraft
organization as thunderstorm clusters merge and potentially develop
cold pools. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear probable across
parts of eastern ND into northern MN, and a Slight Risk has been
introduced for this area given the high concentration of
thunderstorms expected. This activity should spread into much of MN
through the evening before eventually weakening as it encounters a
less unstable airmass with eastward extent.

...Central Plains...
Compared to the northern Plains, generally weaker mid-level flow is
expected with southward extent across the central High Plains today.
Even so, marginally supportive deep-layer shear should aid in modest thunderstorm organization as convection develops along/near the
surface lee trough this afternoon. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will likely develop in a moderately unstable airmass,
with some consolidation/upscale growth possible into the early
evening. With steepened low-level lapse rates expected, occasional
strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this activity.

...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
A strong mid-level jet is forecast to overspread parts of the
northern Great Basin and Rockies today as an upper trough/low
gradually moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of
morning showers and thunderstorms, renewed convection is anticipated
this afternoon from parts of eastern OR into the northern Great
Basin/Rockies. Although low-level moisture will remain limited,
steepened low-level lapse rates with diurnal heating and enhanced
mid-level flow should support at least isolated severe wind
potential with any convection that develops and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through the evening. Some potential for marginal
supercells and occasional severe hail may also exist given moderate
to strong deep-layer expected from parts of eastern OR into ID and
western WY vicinity.

..Gleason/Supinie.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041237
SWODY1
SPC AC 041235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the
evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary
hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern
Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies.

...Upper Midwest into the central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicate an upper ridge extends
northward from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A notable disturbance is moving northeastward across the central Rockies this
morning and into the northern-central Plains by early evening. Lee
troughing extending southward from a weak low forecast to migrate
east from the Dakotas into MN, is expected to focus thunderstorm
activity this afternoon into the evening. Moist southerly low-level
flow will maintain a seasonably moist/unstable airmass across the
central into the north-central U.S. The latest model guidance shows
the strongest buoyancy developing across the Upper Midwest
(2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst relatively limited deep-layer shear
(generally at or below 30-kt 0-6 km shear). Heating and appreciable
forcing for ascent will aid in scattered thunderstorms eventually
evolving by the late afternoon into the early evening near the
aforementioned wind shift and an eastward-moving cold front over
Dakotas/MN vicinity. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard,
but large hail may accompany the stronger storms.

...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
A belt of strong 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move across northern NV
into ID through the base of a mid- to upper-level trough/low
situated over the Pacific Northwest. IR satellite imagery this
morning shows extensive cloudiness immediately ahead of a upper PV
anomaly from the NV/ID/OR border northward through much of ID and
eastern OR. In the wake of morning showers and a few thunderstorms,
additional storm activity is forecast to develop later this
afternoon. A locally greater risk for severe may become focused
within this broader region from southeast ID and northern UT into
far western WY, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are likely to be larger
[reference the 12 UTC raobs between Elko, NV (6.3 deg C/km) versus
Salt Lake City, UT (8.2 deg C/km)]. Isolated severe gusts and
perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041632
SWODY1
SPC AC 041630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the
evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary
hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern
Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies.

...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the
Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances
along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently
moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the
most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues
northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface
observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68
deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+
deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong
heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper
Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and
contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy.

Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front,
as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment
large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of
this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation.
Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e.
around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and
western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this
region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep
low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result
in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists
farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN.
Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by
the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but
the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of
precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited
shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an
outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger
gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail
could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms.

...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a
lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary
shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to
progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this
afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon.
Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt
at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few
stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk
may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger
heating and deeper mixing is anticipated.

..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041944
SWODY1
SPC AC 041942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the
evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary
hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern
Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and the
Central High Plains.

...20z Update...
Minor adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk in Colorado to add
low end hail probabilities. Cells are expected to form and move off
the high terrain into the lower plains through the
afternoon/evening. A few cells may be capable of severe hail, given
sufficient CAPE and deep layer shear. For more information, see
MCD#1562.

The most favorable region for severe storms continues to be the
central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Storms have
started to develop across this region and coverage is expected to
increase into the evening. Storms will have the potential for
damaging wind and large hail. See MCD#1560 for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/

...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the
Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances
along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently
moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the
most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues
northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface
observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68
deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+
deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong
heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper
Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and
contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy.

Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front,
as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment
large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of
this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation.
Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e.
around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and
western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this
region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep
low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result
in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists
farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN.
Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by
the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but
the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of
precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited
shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an
outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger
gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail
could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms.

...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a
lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary
shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to
progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this
afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon.
Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt
at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few
stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk
may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger
heating and deeper mixing is anticipated.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050100
SWODY1
SPC AC 050058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will
continue this evening over the Upper Midwest. Isolated severe gusts
and hail may occur over the central High Plains, with severe gusts
also possible from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern
Great Basin/Rockies.

...Upper Midwest...
Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, a broken band of strong to
severe thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of northern MN. Ahead
of these storms, a warm/moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints)
is yielding moderately unstable inflow, while 30-40 kt of mostly
front-parallel deep-layer shear (per recent VWP data) is promoting
some cold pool organization. As these storms continue
spreading/developing eastward this evening, damaging wind gusts will
remain possible prior to increasing nocturnal inhibition. Reference
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #486 for more information.

...Central High Plains...
A cluster of organized storms is evolving eastward across western KS
-- ahead of a lee trough/lee cyclone over the CO/KS border. The DDC
00Z sounding sampled a moderately unstable air mass and around 30 kt
of effective shear (with ample low-level hodograph curvature). This
environment should continue to support organized multicell clusters
and embedded supercell structures capable of producing severe wind
gusts and isolated large hail for the next few hours. For additional information, see MCD #1565.

..Weinman.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050554
SWODY1
SPC AC 050552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains, with severe winds and large hail being the main
concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger
storms over the Upper Midwest.

...Northern High Plains...
A progressive midlevel wave and accompanying 40-50-kt jet streak
will overspread the northern High Plains from the late afternoon
into the evening/overnight hours. In the low-levels, a corridor of
middle/upper 50s dewpoints will extend westward into the northern
High Plains, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates accompanying
the midlevel wave. As scattered thunderstorms spread eastward across central/eastern MT and northern WY into this corridor, 40-50 kt of
effective shear will favor intensification into semi-discrete
supercells and organized clusters. Established supercells will pose
a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts, while any
upscale-growing clusters will be capable of producing severe wind
gusts (some 75+ mph).

...Upper Midwest into the central Plains...
A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper
Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across
the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor
midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of
enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe
storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front.

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the higher
terrain during the afternoon, before spreading east-southeastward
into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and
moderate northwesterly flow aloft will favor several loosely
organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail.

..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051236
SWODY1
SPC AC 051234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND EXTREME NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe gusts
ranging from 60-85 mph and large to very large hail are the primary
hazards.

...Northern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the
Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. A belt of 40-50 kt 500-mb flow
will move east from ID across southern MT and northern WY through
the late evening. In the low levels, surface low pressure will
develop over central WY today to the south of a high centered over
SK/MB, aiding in maintaining an easterly component to low-level flow
across southern MT. The northern periphery of steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates will be atop a destabilizing boundary layer and will
contribute to moderate buoyancy. As large-scale ascent overspreads south-central MT by early to mid afternoon coincident with eroding
convective inhibition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop. Ample deep-layer flow will favor a few
supercells with the early activity as storms mature/organize. An eastward-moving cluster is forecast to evolve (supported by recent
CAM guidance) during the early evening, with a potential swath of
severe gusts focused over southeast MT into adjacent parts of WY/SD.
As storms move farther east, less buoyancy will tend to limit the
severe risk with east extent into parts of the Dakotas.

...Central-Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into
the evening in the vicinity of a lee trough over the central High
Plains and farther south closer to the Raton Mesa. A relatively
moist and moderately unstable airmass (~1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will
support vigorous updrafts mainly in the form of multicells and small
clusters. This activity will likely spread east-southeastward into
the evening hours. Severe gusts and perhaps large hail may accompany
the more intense storms.

...Upper Midwest into the central Plains...
A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper
Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across
the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor
midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of
enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe
storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front.

...Carolina coast...
The low-level wind profile is forecast to gradually strengthen
concurrent with the approach of Tropical Storm Chantal (see the
National Hurricane Center for the latest details regarding Chantal's
forecast track). By the evening, hodographs begin to substantially
enlarge near the coast and the influx of richer low-level moisture
(mid 70s F surface dewpoints) are expected to infiltrate the
immediate coast. As such, a few transient supercells are possible
with an accompanying low risk for a tornado---mainly during the
overnight.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051600
SWODY1
SPC AC 051558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts
and large hail are the primary hazards.

...Northern High Plains...
Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into
southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies,
spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of
southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and
spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass.
Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable
westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable
of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to
bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western
SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage.

...CO/KS...
Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading
to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse
rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the
afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for
strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a
cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward
into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be
possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this
scenario.

...SC/NC...
Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the
SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that
low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the
coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated
with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes.

..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051912
SWODY1
SPC AC 051910

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts
and large hail are the primary hazards.

...20z Update...
The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates
needed. See the previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/

...Northern High Plains...
Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into
southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies,
spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of
southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and
spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass.
Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable
westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable
of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to
bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western
SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage.

...CO/KS...
Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading
to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse
rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the
afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for
strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a
cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward
into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be
possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this
scenario.

...SC/NC...
Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the
SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that
low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the
coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated
with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060101
SWODY1
SPC AC 060100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern High
Plains into tonight. Isolated large hail and severe winds gusts are
also possible over the southern High Plains.

...Northern High Plains...
Ahead of a progressive shortwave trough and associated 50-kt
midlevel jet (per VWP data), an upscale-growing cluster of
thunderstorms is advancing east-southeastward from southeast
MT/northeast WY into western SD -- with recent signs of a
rear-inflow jet. Ahead of this cluster, the UNR 00Z sounding sampled
sufficient surface-based instability and an elongated/straight
hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear), for the maintenance of
this activity with east-southeastward extent. The primary concern
will be scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph possible). See
Severe Thunderstorm Watches 487/488 and MCD 1572 for details.

...Southern High Plains...
Along the northeastern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered over
the Southwest, around 20-30 kt of midlevel northwesterly flow and
steep deep-layer lapse rates/strong buoyancy (see DDC 00Z sounding)
are supporting a few transient severe cells and clusters. Isolated
large hail and locally severe wind gusts are possible with the
stronger/more persistent storms.

...Midwest...
Scattered thunderstorms are spreading eastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability is marginal, enhanced low/midlevel flow
(sampled by VWP) may promote locally damaging gusts with any loosely
organized clusters that evolve.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Tropical Storm Chantal will continue tracking northward toward the
SC Coast. Locally enhanced low-level shear ahead of the storm may
promote a couple low-topped supercell structures in the outer rain
bands, with a low-end risk of a couple tornadoes.

..Weinman.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060558
SWODY1
SPC AC 060556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of
2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible.

...Central High Plains to the Southern Plains...
Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the
Southwest, a subtle midlevel impulse and related 30-40-kt speed
maximum will overspread the northern/central High Plains during the afternoon/evening time frame. This will aid in the development of
scattered eastward-moving thunderstorms off the higher terrain of
southeastern WY and CO, while additional storms potentially
develop/spread southward along antecedent outflow farther east in
Nebraska. Ahead of this activity, steep deep-layer lapse rates will
yield moderate surface-based instability, which combined with an elongated/straight hodograph (30-40 kt of effective shear), will
favor a mix of semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters.
Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and locally severe gusts
will be possible with the longer-lived storms. With time, some
upscale growth into one or more convective clusters will pose an
increasing risk of scattered severe gusts (some possibly 75+ mph).

Over the KS/OK border, thunderstorm development is expected along a
stalled surface boundary, where a strongly unstable air mass and
25-30 kt of effective shear will favor a few strong to severe storms
capable of producing large hail and severe downbursts.

...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...
Preceding a broad midlevel trough over the Midwest, a belt of
30-40-kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great
Lakes into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. This will promote
a few loosely organized clusters along an eastward-moving cold
front, capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

...Maine...
Around 40-50 kt of westerly flow will overspread Maine, while a cold
front moves across the area during the afternoon. Given sufficient surface-based instability ahead of the front, a few organized
cells/clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear accompanying Tropical Storm
Chantal may favor a couple transient low-topped supercell structures
across eastern NC. While instability will be marginal, a tornado or
two cannot be ruled out with any rotating storms that evolve.

..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061254
SWODY1
SPC AC 061253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of
2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible.

..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains...
A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest
U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains
this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to
moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of
deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated
thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent
with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms
will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater
in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is
expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly
significant, becomes a greater concern.

Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of
2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly
mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters
will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening.

...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...
A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and
the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies
will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest
large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse,
combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will
support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing
isolated severe wind gusts.

...Maine...
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in
association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability
should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly
mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient
supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the
primary severe hazard.

...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity...
Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving
north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for
details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells
may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level
shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of
the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple
tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop
within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability.

..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061610
SWODY1
SPC AC 061609

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and
significant severe gusts are possible.

...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS...
Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this
afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed
max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday,
with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon
storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level
lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few
supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build
eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk
of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western
NE/KS.

...Central Plains to IN/MI...
A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL
into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of
strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level
lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary
later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for
some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures
capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak
steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with
occasional intense downdrafts.

...NC...
TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large
shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating,
and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong.
Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest
updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation
center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any
more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over
eastern NC.

..Hart/Moore.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061944
SWODY1
SPC AC 061942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and
significant severe gusts are possible.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska
with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have
shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving
boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization
does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more
information.

The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with
thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado.
Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the
damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578
and Watch #489 for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/06/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/

...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS...
Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this
afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed
max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday,
with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon
storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level
lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few
supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build
eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk
of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western
NE/KS.

...Central Plains to IN/MI...
A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL
into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of
strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level
lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary
later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for
some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures
capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak
steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with
occasional intense downdrafts.

...NC...
TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large
shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating,
and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong.
Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest
updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation
center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any
more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over
eastern NC.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070057
SWODY1
SPC AC 070056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail will continue tonight across the Plains, especially across
eastern Colorado and western parts of Nebraska and Kansas into
Oklahoma.

...Discussion...
Primary severe risk for the remainder of the night will be focused
across the Great Plains, and the central High Plains in particular.
Severe potential will continue to nocturnally wane across the
Midwest, Maine, and across North Carolina in association with
Tropical Depression Chantal.

This evening, scattered severe storms including some supercells will
persist in areas spanning near the Black Hills southward into the
Nebraska Panhandle, eastern Colorado, and western Kansas. One or
more semi-organized generally southeastward-moving clusters may
eventually evolve within/across the instability axis across far
eastern Colorado/western Kansas with an increased severe-wind
potential aside from a continued episodic large hail risk. This
scenario will be supported by a modestly increasing southerly
low-level jet. Damaging winds and some hail will also continue to be
a concern across northern Oklahoma with a couple of ongoing
clusters, at least for a few hours this evening.

..Guyer.. 07/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070552
SWODY1
SPC AC 070550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast.

...Central High Plains into the northern Plains...
A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt
midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains
during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward
from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move
eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the
intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the
central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral
large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the
evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong
surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote
supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current
indications are that this activity will organize into one or more
organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some
75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface
boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes
will also be possible.

Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel
trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the
front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the
afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will
favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of
producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms
may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an
increasing severe-wind risk.

...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a
slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower
Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt
of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally
destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized
multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071229
SWODY1
SPC AC 071228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast.

...Central High Plains into the northern Plains...
A shortwave trough within westerly mid-level flow will move
east/southeast across the central/northern Plains through tonight,
along the periphery of a meridionally-expanding upper-level ridge.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will expand east across the central
Plains, above a moist boundary layer (generally 60s F dew points)
and contributing to strong instability this afternoon with MLCAPE at
or above 2500 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across the higher terrain over the central High Plains,
and move east through this evening. Initial supercells will be
capable of large to very large hail, though transitioning into one
or more MCSs with an increase in damaging wind potential, including
significant severe gusts.

Thunderstorms are also expected to develop/re-intensify, across
central/eastern SD along a surface trough, with upscale growth into
an MCS capable of severe winds as it moves east, potentially into
southwest MN this evening before weakening. Given expectations for
greater coverage based on latest hi-res guidance, the Level
3/Enhanced Risk has been extended north across eastern SD/southwest
MN based on higher (30%) severe wind probabilities.

...Upper Ohio River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast...
A cold Front will move east today, and inpinge upon a moist (PW at
or above 1.75 in) and moderately unstable air mass, with afternoon
MLCAPE ranging from near 1000 J/kg across ME to 1500-2000 J/kg over
the upper OH Valley. The area will located along the southern fringe
of modest southwest mid-level flow, sufficient for some degree of
updraft organization. Scattered multicell/clusters of thunderstorms
developing this afternoon will pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts
with isolated stronger storms.

...Lower Ohio Valley into Ozarks...
Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon developing in the vicinity of
a southward-advancing cold front will have the potential for
isolated wet microbursts within a moist (PW 1.75 to over 2 inches)
air mass. Weak cloud-bearing layer shear should limit organization,
but overall storm coverage should be sufficient for isolated
damaging gusts.

..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071626
SWODY1
SPC AC 071624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast.

...SD/NE/KS/CO...
A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and
evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of
thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD.
Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification
and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and
western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and
damaging winds.

Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread
eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday)
and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also
pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening.

It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal
during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and
eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by
that time is uncertain.

...OH to ME...
A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across
parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong
daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with
sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind
gusts.

..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 072000
SWODY1
SPC AC 071958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast.

...20z Update Northern Plains...
The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only
minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area
were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has
cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD
and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this
should focus storm development and severe potential along the
boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected
across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening.
Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado
or two.

Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and
into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of
the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging
wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA.
Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential.

...Central High Plains...
Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime
across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a
few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level
lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for
damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more
clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging
winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info.

...OH Valley/Northeast...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US
to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear
pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain
likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal
with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for
current frontal/storm position slightly farther east.

..Lyons.. 07/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/

...SD/NE/KS/CO...
A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and
evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of
thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD.
Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification
and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and
western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and
damaging winds.

Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread
eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday)
and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also
pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening.

It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal
during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and
eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by
that time is uncertain.

...OH to ME...
A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across
parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong
daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with
sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind
gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080043
SWODY1
SPC AC 080042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions
of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are
the main threats.

...01z Update...

Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red
River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends
from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance
slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably
across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated
along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted,
especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for
at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE,
partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level
convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a
larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA
border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not
particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is
also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity
will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail.
Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will
likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much
of the evening.

..Darrow.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080544
SWODY1
SPC AC 080543

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid Atlantic.
More isolated activity is expected across portions of the Plains
into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Middle Atlantic...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave
trough over the upper MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest
model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the central
Great Lakes region by the end of the period. As the short wave
advances east, a corridor of higher PW (currently extending from AR
into the upper OH Valley) will be shunted downstream as a
low-amplitude disturbance ejects toward the Mid Atlantic. While some suppression of the height field can be expected late, it appears the
weak disturbance should be the primary mechanism for encouraging
somewhat stronger southwesterly flow which would extend as far south
as central VA. Even so, 0-6km bulk shear is only expected to be on
the order of 20-25kt, but favorably oriented for clusters and short
line segments. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates, but
high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely,
especially with any organized clusters. Convective temperatures will
be breached by 17-18z as readings climb into the mid 80s, and
scattered thunderstorms should readily develop from central PA into
central VA. This activity will then propagate toward the Mid
Atlantic Coast with an attendant risk for damaging winds.

...Plains/Middle Atlantic...

Upper ridge is forecast to hold across the southwestern U.S. through
the day1 period; although, northwesterly flow is expected to
increase a bit along the eastern periphery of this feature over the
High Plains. As a result, high-level diffluent flow will be noted
across the southern Plains into southern MO. At the surface,
low-level boundaries/convergence will prove weak, and left-over
convective debris will likely prove influential in late-afternoon
development. Early this morning, an MCS was propagating south across
eastern NE/southwest IA. This complex will likely advance into
southeast KS/southwest MO by sunrise. It's not entirely clear how
organized this cluster will be at the start of the period, but
convective outflow will likely contribute to additional development
later in the day. Strong boundary-layer heating will also aid
isolated thunderstorm development across the High Plains of eastern
WY/CO/NM. This activity will spread southeast during the evening
with a risk for hail/wind.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081244
SWODY1
SPC AC 081243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic
states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of
the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Mid-Atlantic States...
A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into
evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies
centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance
or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy
developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the
Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may
contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of
sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates
and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely,
especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage
is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions
of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery
of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several
low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with
modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High
Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence
renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and
middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging
winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across
the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains
where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending
guidance/observational trends later this morning.

..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081627
SWODY1
SPC AC 081625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic
states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of
the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary
layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z
soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated
vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000
J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for
ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New
England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm
development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate
lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel
lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level
lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will
drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the
resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or
short line segments.

...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening...
A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving
southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a
remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow,
clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel
cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in
advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger
surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the
outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual
height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at
least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening
across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow
aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based
supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the
potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background
height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the
broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe
outflow winds and some hail.

...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross
northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms
will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme
northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection).
Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some
enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage
and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening.

..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081951
SWODY1
SPC AC 081950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic
states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of
the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...20Z Update...
Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current
observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains
valid.

..Wendt.. 07/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/

...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary
layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z
soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated
vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000
J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for
ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New
England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm
development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate
lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel
lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level
lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will
drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the
resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or
short line segments.

...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening...
A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving
southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a
remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow,
clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel
cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in
advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger
surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the
outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual
height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at
least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening
across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow
aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based
supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the
potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background
height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the
broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe
outflow winds and some hail.

...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross
northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms
will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme
northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection).
Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some
enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage
and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090054
SWODY1
SPC AC 090052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms should continue this evening
across parts of the central/southern Plains and Mid-Atlantic into
southern New England.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England...
Bands of loosely organized convection will continue to spread
eastward across the DelMarVa Peninsula and southeast VA/northeast NC
vicinity over the next couple of hours this evening. A sufficiently
moist and unstable airmass should support occasional severe/damaging
winds with this activity until it moves offshore or eventually
weakens with the loss of daytime heating.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Widely spaced strong to severe thunderstorms are present this
evening across the central/southern Plains, generally along/south of
a convectively reinforced boundary extending across KS into the
Ozarks. Large-scale forcing across these regions will tend to remain
weak on the northeast periphery of the upper ridge centered over the
Southwest. But, multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations
should aid in thunderstorm maintenance for several more hours this
evening given the presence of moderate to strong instability and
marginally sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization.
Isolated severe winds and hail may occur with loosely organized
multicells and occasional supercells. But, the overall severe threat
still appears too unfocused/widely spaced to include greater severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 07/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090601
SWODY1
SPC AC 090600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early
evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail
and severe gusts are also possible across parts of the
northern/central Plains beginning late this afternoon and continuing
into the evening.

...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic...
A weak mid-level trough will move slowly eastward today across the
Great Lakes/OH Valley. A belt of modestly enhanced southwesterly
mid-level flow will remain over the Mid-Atlantic through this
evening, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to
develop this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge
Mountains, and then spread eastward towards the coast. The presence
of rich low-level moisture will compensate for poor lapse rates
aloft to support MLCAPE generally around 1500-3000 J/kg across lower elevations. A few loosely organized clusters may eventually develop
from parts of VA towards the DelMarVa Peninsula and vicinity owing
to somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear across these regions.
Isolated hail may occur initially with the more cellular/discrete
convection, before scattered severe/damaging winds becomes the
primary risk with eastward extent as multiple clusters potentially
develop. Generally minor adjustments have been made to the ongoing Marginal/Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating from an
upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest, most guidance continues
to suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form by
late this afternoon along a weak surface trough. Ample low-level
moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout
EML. A corridor of strong to very strong instability will likely
exist by late afternoon/early evening from parts of western/central
ND into NE, aided by daytime heating and steep lapse rates aloft.
Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the proximity
of the upper ridge, stronger upper-level westerlies will support
adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells initially, with
associated threat for large to isolated very large hail.
Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering
east-southeastward across the Dakotas and perhaps parts of NE, with
a risk for scattered severe gusts, some of which could be 75+ mph on
an isolated basis given the rather favorable thermodynamic
environment forecast.

While confidence is somewhat lower regarding convective coverage
with southward extent across the central Plains (into KS and
vicinity), a conditionally favorable environment for at least
isolated severe convection will be in place. Have therefore expanded
the Marginal Risk southward to account for this potential.

...Interior Northwest/Northern Rockies...
Downstream of a shortwave trough moving eastward across northern CA
into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of enhanced
southwesterly mid-level flow will exist across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Within this favorable flow regime amid steepened
low-level lapse rates through daytime heating, scattered
thunderstorms should foster strong to isolated severe gusts from
parts of eastern OR into MT.

...Lower Michigan into Northwest Ohio...
Isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds appear
possible this afternoon across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest
OH as scattered thunderstorms develop beneath a weak upper trough,
supported by a modest combination of instability and deep-layer
shear.

..Gleason/Weinman.. 07/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091254
SWODY1
SPC AC 091253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early
evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail
and severe wind gusts are also possible across parts of the
northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States...
A weak mid-level trough will move slowly eastward today across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A belt of modestly enhanced
southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the Mid-Atlantic
through this evening, diminishing with southward extent in the
Southeast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again
expected to develop this afternoon over the southern Appalachians
and Blue Ridge Mountains, and then spread eastward towards the
coast. Steepening low-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture
will support MLCAPE generally around 1500-3000 J/kg across lower
elevations.

Loosely organized clusters may eventually develop from parts of
Virginia towards the DelMarVa Peninsula and vicinity owing to
somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear across these regions.
Isolated hail may occur initially with the more cellular/discrete
convection, before scattered severe/damaging winds becomes the
primary risk with eastward extent as multiple clusters potentially
develop.

...Northern/central Plains...
Downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating from an
upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest, most guidance continues
to suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form by
late this afternoon along a weak surface trough. However, it should
be noted that guidance continues to vary considerably in the
short-term spatial details, likely owing to owing to degree of
elevated mixed layer/warmth aloft. Recent HRRR (and RRFS) runs are
somewhat uncharacteristically more aggressive (given the capping and
modest forcing regime etc.) in terms of overall degree of deep
convective development and the southward extent thereof, as compared
to various global guidance.

A corridor of strong to very strong instability will exist by late afternoon/early evening from parts of western/central Dakotas to
northern Nebraska, aided by daytime heating and very steep lapse
rates. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the
proximity of the upper ridge, stronger upper-level westerlies will
support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells initially,
with associated threat for large to isolated very large hail.
Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering
east-southeastward across the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska, with a
risk for severe-caliber wind gusts, some of which could be 75+ mph
on an isolated basis given the rather favorable thermodynamic
environment forecast. Risk-magnitude uncertainty increases southward
across Kansas, but at least isolated severe storms may occur across western/central/northern parts of Kansas, and possibly into northern
Oklahoma.

...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and northern Great Basin...
Downstream of a shortwave trough moving eastward toward the northern
Great Basin, an elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level
flow will exist across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Within this
favorable flow regime amid steepened low-level lapse rates through
daytime heating, scattered thunderstorms should foster strong to
isolated severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into
Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah.

...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio...
Isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur
this afternoon across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest
Ohio. This will be as scattered thunderstorms develop beneath a weak
upper trough, supported by a modest combination of instability and
deep-layer shear.

..Guyer/Dean.. 07/09/2025

$$

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