ACUS11 KWNS 240210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240210=20
KSZ000-COZ000-240315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Areas affected...a part of southeast CO and western KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313...

Valid 240210Z - 240315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313
continues.

SUMMARY...With WW 313 scheduled to expire at 03Z, SPC will
coordinate with remaining WFOs for a potential extension-in-time for
the lone supercell lingering in a part of southeast Colorado.

DISCUSSION...A lone supercell with a history of producing a tornado
and baseball-size hail has slowly been moving south-southeast along
the western fringe of the MLCIN gradient near the CO/KS border. With
further increases in MLCIN tonight amid the very pronounced elevated mixed-layer, longevity of this supercell is questionable beyond late
evening. Downstream, elevated thunderstorm development remains
possible but appears more likely to occur much farther east,
beginning near central KS. Thus, the ongoing severe watch will
likely be redefined for this lingering supercell and any downstream
watch potential for overnight severe will be addressed later.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6HSgYmG_FN_x7nmDil-LN6YS1C3N6GS7fqh45ix4GtRSbleDhbCdO6P8wO7hAwcxBRNoecY7N= TVgcjitwRUtzAVah48$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 38850258 38760192 38490151 38190150 37920175 37870216
37960259 38620274 38850258=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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