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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0943

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 24 00:27:20 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 240026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240026=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-240230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0943
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0726 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

    Areas affected...eastern CO and northwest KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313...

    Valid 240026Z - 240230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Primary supercell in northeast Colorado may persist to the south-southeast, while an additional supercell should become
    sustained along the east-central Colorado to northwest Kansas
    border. Sporadic brief tornadoes, large hail, and localized severe
    gusts remain possible.

    DISCUSSION...GOES MDS first illustrated downstream development ahead
    of an intense supercell over northeast CO. This temporarily
    disrupted the earlier intense mesocyclone, and now appears to have
    had a handoff to another mesocyclone on its southwest flank. Cooler
    surface temperatures and substantially increasing MLCIN with eastern
    extent would suggest that this cell should track southeast but may
    eventually be limited by outflows emanating from downstream
    convection over east-central CO. This southern activity has largely
    struggled thus far, but appears to be consolidating to a couple
    sustained updrafts along/south of I-70. One or both of these could
    become the dominant supercells in the next couple hours given
    unimpeded inflow of higher theta-e.

    ..Grams.. 05/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4tyjcP_yHruPSf_IYz0z73YavYdMFDvLxyfiHE_4dQgy7s_yHwplgX094QzM8fNxTuV8W_o6A= 9jY3D2hqSuYkFM1ICo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 40520287 40210253 39790222 39280149 38760151 38330172
    38370227 38580279 38930296 39270297 39990320 40400326
    40520287=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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