ACUS11 KWNS 231949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231949=20
TXZ000-232145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0941
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Areas affected...The Trans-Pecos and Stockton Plateau of West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231949Z - 232145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail stones
will be possible across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Stockton
Plateau through late this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convective temperatures have easily been reached under
a mid-level ridge axis this afternoon along and ahead of a dryline
beginning to mix eastward into portions of West TX. Visible
satellite and radar imagery both indicate moist convection is
deepening east of the Davis Mountains, where a well mixed boundary
layer is in place. An unstable air mass should continue to result in
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development through the
afternoon. The main concern with this activity will be severe wind
gusts given large dewpoint-temperature spreads/inverted V profiles,
and downdraft CAPE ~2000 J/kg. This may especially be true by late
this afternoon if storm mergers occur. Severe hail also cannot be
ruled out with steep mid level lapse rates in place and a slight
increase in mid to upper-level flow anticipated over the next couple
of hours. However, the threat of severe hail may be mitigated by
high freezing levels and a lack of significant organization due to
limiting deep layer effective shear. A weather watch is not expected
at this time.

..Barnes/Guyer.. 05/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-3z9xeUFg4mzQVQ_shd6sWTwWIKgLlg_pKwaU5XXd4dTDCz08DFfggcjCBuh3gJ2vIGXZvlNX= JBkySc_F4MqmJKtK3E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30060421 30400443 30790441 31270433 31610411 31830357
31580290 31490242 31120213 30680210 30240219 30060267
29920323 29860370 30060421=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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