ACUS11 KWNS 230304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230303=20
TXZ000-230430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 230303Z - 230430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe wind threat with a small MCS should persist
through midnight, with less confidence in longevity overnight.

DISCUSSION...The coldest IR cloud tops of the evening were recently
sampled with a linear cluster/small MCS that has been progressing
southeastward across the Big Country and Concho Valley. This
correlated with the strongest measured severe gust thus far of 65
kts at KETN, and likely a result of impinging on richer low-level
moisture advecting northwestward from central TX. A 30-35 kt
low-level jet as sampled by the GRK VWP could support sporadic
severe gusts persisting southeastward during the next 2-3 hours.
Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance inferred a more abrupt weakening of
the cluster, but the RRFS appears to have a better handle on how it
is evolving and supports a few more hours of severe threat. With
instability weakening overnight, expectation is still for this MCS
to diminish into the early morning.

..Grams/Hart.. 05/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5emeKWIpZCh9NuI28oiKuNySmv7ZPfBX5eWny1lrFsXghP6SXnUqCOD-Z0UEYCcPib8bDC7Im= -jeAmZFeRfOOijSPw4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 32419868 32299800 31719773 31319763 31159775 30799811
30549858 30449941 30670015 31260022 31409944 31829913
32419868=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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