ACUS11 KWNS 222251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222251=20
TXZ000-230045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0935
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...TX Hill Country vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222251Z - 230045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Localized severe wind/hail will be possible through about
sunset with slow-moving discrete storms in vicinity of the Hill
Country.

DISCUSSION...Several updrafts have formed in/around the Hill Country
to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. With nebulous large-scale
ascent after peak heating, longevity of these updrafts is expected
to be short-lived. Given a hot and well-mixed boundary layer, severe
hail magnitudes should be limited. But melting hail cores may
enhance downdraft potential, especially as cells begin to collapse
around sunset. Marginally severe hail with isolated severe gusts are
possible.

..Grams/Hart.. 05/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_4HXOiokVUKUU_-MP4uX6L_N_H67mEnBkBzViGjU5SiPBoApDGUCtwrnIYdra__HNjlKZjAnK= aFZD1yiahXpjOkEIz0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30469958 30929923 30969862 30929800 30689745 30489721
30049730 29619762 29329794 29579872 30149942 30469958=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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