ACUS11 KWNS 222200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222200=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-230000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...north to west TX and far southern OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

Valid 222200Z - 230000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
continues.

SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts will
likely persist through early evening across a swath of north to west
Texas and adjacent southern Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells are ongoing, including left and
right splits, mainly centered on far southwest OK into western north
TX with a couple isolated ones near the Lower Pecos Valley. Large
hail has been the primary hazard thus far and will likely continue
over the next few hours amid a favorable deep-layer shear regime,
well sampled by the FDR VWP. With time, activity should attempt to
merge into a forward-propagating cluster, seemingly emanating out of
the western north TX supercells. But downstream of this regime in
the Big Country is a dry pocket evident in surface obs, visible
satellite imagery, and RAP-based mesoanalysis. As such, it may take
a few more hours for more organized clustering to evolve, as that
buoyancy minima is eroded with increasing low-level southeasterlies towards/after sunset.

..Grams.. 05/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5xbgSIVKjfrIfVZXMSDbRirzcHiKBosZ2EJMw1cL6kLvSQ6zCETV4GOh9wsNcgPm21KIs9EqB= 4SdCpw0MSYBJiOEEz0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 34120089 34359995 34419853 34449788 34449704 34289684
34029690 33799750 33599834 33569859 33309904 33039915
32579966 32340042 31800108 31230126 30850214 32080184
32950128 33200095 34120089=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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