ACUS11 KWNS 221924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221924=20
TXZ000-222130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221924Z - 222130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development,
perhaps including an evolving supercell or two, appears possible
through 3-5 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for large hail and locally
damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and deep-boundary layer mixing focused
along the dryline across the Texas South Plains is contributing to
weakening inhibition as far north as a diffuse surface front
extending near/south of Childress toward the Lubbock vicinity. This
is coinciding with deepening convective development, which seems
likely to persist, particularly where low-level convergence is
strongest near the boundary intersection.

Although beneath more modest northwesterly mid-level flow/deep-layer
shear than closer to the Red River, as updrafts acquire increasing
inflow of air characterized by mixed-layer CAPE as high as 2000-3000
J/kg, isolated supercell development posing a risk for large hail
and damaging wind gusts appear possible.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7j8NYzPbf8m33AFr6qii8xvqZ3IvPuXMGmal0hp9UFsiUvNmmVZc7-i2tl05V_jrbrn11__m8= N_QeFl6LHqtMhLCAuA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32840099 33290179 33730170 34330120 34080030 33969958
32840099=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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