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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0929

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 22 17:27:52 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 221727
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221727=20
    MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-221930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0929
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1227 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

    Areas affected...Southern Delmarva Peninsula into the Southern
    Chesapeake Bay Vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221727Z - 221930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon
    from the southern Delmarva Peninsula into the southern Chesapeake
    Bay vicinity.

    DISCUSSION...Limited destabilization is ongoing across far southeast
    VA into the southern Delmarva Peninsula as filtered daytime heating
    occurs amid modest low-level moisture and cold temperatures aloft.
    This destabilization is occurring along the northern periphery of
    the stronger mid-level flow, which is contributing to 40-50 kt of
    0-6 km bulk shear across the region. Large-scale forcing for ascent
    will likely persist across this area as the upper troughing moves
    through, and the general expectation is for overall storm coverage
    to increase. Instability is expected to remain modest, likely
    limiting the overall updraft strength/depth. However, mid-level
    temperatures are expected to continue cooling, so there will likely
    be enough buoyancy for a few deeper cores. Additionally, the
    enhanced mid-level flow across the region could aid in the
    development of a few stronger downdrafts within the strongest
    storms. Even so, the overall coverage of damaging wind gusts is
    expected to remain low throughout the afternoon.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4N65OkajshErSZEkUppsUHFNEIfeU_RX7gEVUIpPcLKphbUeYDyFqcrHU0RPuLWH9VZ2a707O= W5ruD_dOlv2-PDEP50$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38517678 38597581 38177517 37527530 36997573 36967638
    37407704 38057712 38517678=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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