ACUS11 KWNS 221438
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221437=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-221700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0927
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Areas affected...parts of south central Oklahoma into north central
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221437Z - 221700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm
development posing a risk for severe hail and, perhaps, locally
strong surface gusts, is likely to continue into early afternoon,
before much more prominent thunderstorm development begins to
initiate near the Ardmore vicinity toward 1-3 PM CDT. Trends are
being monitored for a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is well underway,
and appears likely to persist into this afternoon across central
into east central and southeastern Oklahoma. This is being
supported by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on the
northeastern periphery of a plume of warm elevated mixed layer air,
which appears based around 850 mb across central Oklahoma. However,
warmer (and increasingly inhibitive to convective development) air a
bit further aloft (8-10 C around the 700 mb level), is forecast to
gradually advect toward the Interstate 35 corridor through midday.

Initial elevated moist return remains a bit modest, and only appears
to be supporting CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg, despite the steep
mid-level lapse rates. However, strong shear within the convective
layer (aided by pronounced veering of winds with height beneath
modest northwesterly mid/upper flow) has contributed to cells
producing marginally severe hail.

The hail risk appears greatest near/just north of the Red River in
south central Oklahoma. where convection appears rooted closest to
the surface. Toward 18-20Z, Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast
soundings suggest that boundary layer warming and moistening
around/east of the Ardmore vicinity may become supportive of sizable boundary-layer based CAPE, with inhibition weak enough to support
continuing convective development. This likely will including more
rapid intensification of supercells, posing increasing risk for
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and potential for tornadoes.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_rQ6JzqPRQqM8iceyfnwxpwIKN3qIEyrSYWZk3dJTR3x8W7Ljf0JxtYrafM9RWK2yXb13qjeZ= d1UIFrZOQCEjatdrC0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35389717 35339683 34399548 33739573 33159717 33579787
34199827 34659811 35179796 35389717=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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