ACUS11 KWNS 212215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212214=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-212345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0924
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southern Georgia into northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212214Z - 212345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts and/or marginally severe hail could
occur with a couple isolated storms over the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...A couple isolated storms have developed across far
southern GA -- immediately ahead of a cold front draped across the
area. These storms are tracking slowly southeastward into northern
FL -- where earlier heating of a moist boundary layer (middle 70s
dewpoints) has yielded moderate surface-based instability. Given
30-40 kt of midlevel westerly flow sampled by the JAX VWP, these
cells may continue to exhibit marginal/transient supercell
characteristics -- and locally strong gusts/marginally severe hail
will be possible for the next couple hours.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/21/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8VTuSKMi7ThwoAemEWDlbC6WK_XAh6tJGi5z2iwiOhfTtfw-w3w-S3PN-FgPjfylcbiTiqcdb= bnAOSC9Mx6qUsc8HsM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30808329 30968239 30908196 30728181 30478183 30258215
30148274 30128301 30238341 30598347 30808329=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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