ACUS11 KWNS 181348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181348=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-181645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern OK into northwest AR and
extreme southwest MO

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 181348Z - 181645Z

SUMMARY...Light to locally moderate freezing rain and/or sleet is
possible this morning. Increasing snow rates are possible by late
morning across northeast Oklahoma and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Light precipitation is gradually increasing this
morning across parts of central/eastern OK, in response to warm
advection near/above 850 mb atop a southward-advancing arctic
airmass. The 12Z OUN sounding depicts saturation primarily below a
notable temperature inversion around 700 mb. In the short term,
given the relatively shallow saturated layer and lack of deeper
ascent above this layer, a period of freezing drizzle/light freezing
rain will be possible, with relatively efficient ice accretion in
areas where near-surface temperatures fall through the 20s F.=20

With time, deeper/stronger ascent will result in locally heavier
precipitation rates later this morning. This may be accompanied by
an transition to sleet and snow (especially with northward extent),
due to continued near-surface cold advection and wet-bulb cooling of
the initially dry layer near 700 mb. Snow rates may begin to
increase by late morning across northeast OK and vicinity, with
locally heavy snow possible this afternoon.

..Dean.. 02/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-8QWp3na2IfPsmRZvJ0_5ly5M9G9uYdm4mUGparnMmJ_rB_R6Iwyiopeg3LiXeqe-qAoHS8re= lJq803hOjiAwAIMkZM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35729755 36679734 37079643 37039450 36179406 34359354
34229401 34719468 34859503 34789559 34549622 34219700
33929779 34189828 34879786 35269768 35729755=20


=3D =3D =3D
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