672
AXNT20 KNHC 151058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Feb 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds will pulse to gale force offshore
of Colombia early this morning, and again tonight into early Sun
as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in
the western Atlantic and the Colombian low. Locally very rough
seas are expected near and to the west of the gale force winds.
Pulsing strong to near-gale force winds are expected each night
and early morning into next week.

SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico early on Sun, with strong N winds and
rough seas occurring behind the front west of 90W as it moves
southeastward. Gale force winds are expected offshore of Veracruz
on Sun in the wake of the front. Winds will diminish from north to
south by Mon morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to
03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 02S36W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring south of 05N and east of 18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information
regarding a Gale Warning in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sun.

A cold front extends from west-central Florida to 26N76W.
Elsewhere, a 1016 mb low is located in southeastern Texas, and a
trough extends toward the south through the central Bay of
Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are occurring across
the eastern, central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico, with gentle
to locally moderate winds in the southwestern basin, including the
Bay of Campeche. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted across the basin.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong SE to E winds
will prevail in the southern Gulf early this morning, offshore of
the Yucatan Peninsula and northwestern Cuba. A warm front will
lift northward through the northern basin today, and moderate to
fresh SE to E winds are expected to develop across much of the
basin, including through the Florida Straits. Locally strong S
winds and rough seas will be possible in the northwestern Gulf
offshore of Texas later this morning, with more widespread strong
S to SW winds developing in the north-central Gulf late tonight
into Sun. The next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico early on Sun, with strong N winds and rough seas occurring
behind the front west of 90W as it moves southeastward. Gale
force winds are expected offshore of Veracruz on Sun in the wake
of the front. Winds will diminish from north to south by Mon
morning, with transient high pressure expected over the basin
through Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information
regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean offshore of Colombia.

Pulsing gale force winds are occurring offshore of northwestern
Colombia, with strong winds occurring through the central
Caribbean, through the Windward Passage and across the Atlantic
Passages into the eastern basin. Elsewhere, fresh trade winds
prevail in the southwestern and eastern basin, with moderate winds
in the northwestern basin. Rough seas cover much of the central
and eastern Caribbean, with locally very rough seas to 13 ft
occurring near the gales. Otherwise, moderate seas prevail in the
northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force offshore of
Colombia early this morning, and again tonight into early Sun as a
strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the
western Atlantic and the Colombian low. Locally very rough seas
are expected near and to the west of the gale force winds.
Widespread fresh trade winds and rough seas will occur across the
central and eastern Caribbean through this weekend, with winds
pulsing to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela, through the
Windward Passage, downwind of Hispaniola, in the lee of Cuba, in
the Gulf of Honduras, and through the Atlantic Passages.
Elsewhere, pulsing fresh NE winds are expected in the western
basin. Looking ahead, a decreasing pressure gradient between the
Colombian low and high pressure in the western and central
Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and locally
rough seas across the basin into early next week, with locally
strong winds occurring offshore of Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W southwestward into south Florida,
and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas are
occurring north of the front. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front
has been analyzed from 31N20W to 31N33W to 27N43W. Rough seas are
occurring near this cold front, with very rough seas noted north
of 28N and east of 39W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE to E
winds prevail south of 25N, with locally strong winds and rough
seas occurring east of the Windward Islands from 12N to 18N west of 45W.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from 31N55W to south
Florida will progress southeastward this morning before stalling
along 28N later today, and dissipate by Sun. Fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds are expected north of the front this morning.
Pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will also occur
north of Hispaniola and Cuba and near the Bahamas into Sun. A
long-period N swell associated with this cold front will produce
rough seas north of 27N by late morning, and north of 23N by Sun
morning. Very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft will be possible north of
28N and east of 60W late tonight through Sun. Farther south, fresh
trade winds and rough seas will prevail south of 23N through this
weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds at times east of the
Windward Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and rough
seas will then occur in this region through at least the middle
of next week. Elsewhere, winds will turn to the S and strengthen
west of 70W off the coast of Florida by early Sun ahead of the
next cold front forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern
United States Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda to
the Florida Straits by Mon afternoon, then drift SE and weaken
considerably through Tue.

$$
ADAMS
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