ACUS48 KWNS 060957
SWOD48
SPC AC 060956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently --
and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to
gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across
the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual
upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the
persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward.
Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward
through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe
weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles
across this area.

Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward),
disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly
cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave
development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could
result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus
some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop
the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would
support severe-weather potential.

With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during
the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and
degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and
their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability
issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features,
it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the
day 7 to 8 time frame.

..Goss.. 02/06/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 070949
SWOD48
SPC AC 070947

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic
flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next
week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from
the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the
week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week.
Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high,
however.

...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...
Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through
Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the
GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the
shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is
out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and
magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement
of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints
currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this
Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some
increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough
approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the
greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday
depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence
remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will
continue to be monitored.

By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another
western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal
intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt
on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty
is too high for highlights.

..Wendt.. 02/07/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 080948
SWOD48
SPC AC 080946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of
next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central
Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast
will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe
storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger
forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly
parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more
widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the
Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but
the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and
the warm sector will likely be narrow.

By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf
Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move
eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air
intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the
trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible
during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as
models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past
1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored.

..Wendt.. 02/08/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 090956
SWOD48
SPC AC 090954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Valley into Lower Mississippi Valley Vicinity...
Precipitation appears likely to be ongoing within the warm advection
zone near the cold front on Wednesday. The primary shortwave
perturbation within the broader cyclonic flow aloft is expected to
move from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley by the
afternoon. A weak surface wave will develop along the front and
quickly move northeast. This overall pattern will not favor
significant northward progression of Gulf moisture. With deep-layer
shear remaining parallel to the boundary, a broad warm advection
regime, and stronger ascent displaced northward, confidence in more
than isolated disorganized severe storms is low.

The intrusion of cold air into the Gulf on Friday is expected to be
greater than earlier in the week. Portions of the northern Gulf are
likely to be impacted with some potential the cold air to reach the
central Gulf. By Friday afternoon, the next upper-level trough is
forecast to reach the Southwest with a lee cyclone developing in
eastern Colorado. With the low deepening as it moves into the
Mid-South, rapid northward moisture return is possible within the
region through the day Saturday. This pattern would support severe
storms. Model guidance has had some consistency with the broad
pattern evolution, but has continued to differ run to run with
timing and intensity of key features. Further, given the colder air
that will be in place prior to any moisture return, the overall
quality of the airmass ahead of the upper trough is also not
certain. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored for this
coming Saturday.

...Portions of the Southeast...
As the surface low moves northeast, it is expected to deepen as it
moves into the southern/central Appalachians on Thursday. This will
push the cold front into Georgia and the Carolinas. A narrow
warm-sector ahead of the front may destabilize enough for isolated
strong to severe storms, but confidence in more widespread activity
is low given the uncertain buoyancy and the increasingly
northward-displace mid-level ascent.

On Sunday, based on current guidance, a similar scenario to Thursday
will occur. However, the trough/surface low are forecast to be
stronger and there is greater potential for a larger warm sector.
Uncertainty remains high this far in advance, however.

..Wendt.. 02/09/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 100939
SWOD48
SPC AC 100937

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast
as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the
next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi
Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday.
Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both
days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the
Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For
Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide
will minimize severe risk.

...Southeast...
There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough
to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a
deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move
into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return
into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into
Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South.
This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the
Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both
low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The
surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but
the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped
boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of
the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the
timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of
sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and
ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday.
Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data
becomes available.

...Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic...
As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on
Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms
from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not
clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the
diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored.

..Wendt.. 02/10/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 110939
SWOD48
SPC AC 110938

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Friday...
Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture
return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East
Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm
development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering
capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely
would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe
probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible.

...Day 5/Saturday...
A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is
expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in
the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable
placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors
will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday
morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the
column will support organized storms capable of all hazards.
Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong
cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of
the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead
of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition
and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete
development or not, low-level wind fields still will support
line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther
north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb
flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection.
Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area
(i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to
the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay
steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the
potential for scattered to numerous severe storms.

...Day 6/Sunday...
As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective
line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the
Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will
still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of
destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival
before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which
may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The
intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that
severe probabilities will be withheld.

...Day 7 Onward...
Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive
colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will
approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return
is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air
intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe
risk is high.

..Wendt.. 02/11/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 121000
SWOD48
SPC AC 120959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Saturday...
Model guidance continues to forecast a strong upper-level trough
moving through the southern Plains and into the Southeast. Some
modest slowing of the trough has been noted, however. The trough
will promote the deepening of the surface low in the ArkLaTex
vicinity during the afternoon with further deepening expected into
the evening as it generally progresses north-northeastward within
the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Moisture return will have begun Friday
evening and will continue Saturday. Guidance shows a consistent
signal for mid 60s F dewpoints extending into much of
Louisiana/Mississippi, and Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are
possible closer to the Gulf Coast. Very strong wind fields are
anticipated throughout the troposphere. Shear will be strong and,
despite more modest mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will be more
than adequate for severe storms. The current expectation is for warm
advection precipitation to be ongoing early in the period and for it
not to make much, if any, southward progress until the late
afternoon. A Pacific front in East Texas/Sabine Valley into the
ArkLaTex may be the initial zone for stronger convective
development. By the late afternoon onward, the cold front will begin
to surge south and east. The low-level jet should remain strong into
the afternoon and then increase to 50-70 kts during the evening. As
the cold front surges, shear vectors will acquire a greater
cross-boundary component. This strongly forced line will be capable
of scattered to widespread damaging winds along with the threat for
embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. One of the main questions that
remain will be the degree of the tornado threat, which would
increase with any discrete activity ahead of the cold front. Given
the weak capping and strong forcing, pre-frontal discrete storms are
plausible. The ECMWF shows some hint of this from central Louisiana
into adjacent Mississippi. The eastern and northern extent of the
greatest severe threat are also in question, but the intense
low-level jet could produce severe-caliber gusts even with
relatively shallow convection. The overall pattern, along with
signals in both deterministic and ML guidance, suggest 30% severe
probabilities are warranted for Saturday.

...Day 5/Sunday...
The strongly forced line will continue into portions of the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind-fields will remain in place.
The main question will be the degree of destabilization that can
occur. The current forecast guidance suggests the line may move
through these areas late morning/early afternoon. Uncertainty in the thermodynamic environment precludes severe probabilities at this
time, but areas of eastern Virginia into parts of the eastern
Carolinas will continue to be monitored.

...Day 6/Monday Onward...
With cold air moving into much of the CONUS east of the Divide,
severe potential appears low during the remainder of the period.
Some moisture return could occur in coastal Texas next Tuesday, but
a cold front is expected to quickly push back offshore.

..Wendt.. 02/12/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 130938
SWOD48
SPC AC 130937

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina...
Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the
Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an
eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected
to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear
how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available
forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and
subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture
return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection.
Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given
the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld.

Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are
generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential
through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at
a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf
mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far
too uncertain this far in advance.

..Wendt.. 02/13/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 140852
SWOD48
SPC AC 140851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior
cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a
dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper
trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great
Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may
develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough,
allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm
activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe
potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to
progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu
morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will
preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the
forecast period.

..Leitman.. 02/14/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 150931
SWOD48
SPC AC 150930

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An Arctic cold front is expected to surge south and east across the
southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on Day 4/Tue. Some thunderstorm
potential is possible across the TX Coastal Plain ahead of the front
as southerly low-level flow allows northward transport of Gulf
moisture. Some potential for an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm will exist across southeast TX during the late
afternoon/evening. However, current forecast guidance suggests
convection may be elevated due to poor low-level lapse rates and
convection becoming quickly undercut by the surging front.
Currently, the overall threat appears limited in space and time,
though some low-end probabilities may be needed in subsequent
outlooks.

An Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Day 5/Wed,
resulting in very cold and stable conditions through the end of the
period. This will preclude thunderstorm potential beyond Day 4/Tue.

..Leitman.. 02/15/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 160902
SWOD48
SPC AC 160900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough embedded within a larger-scale upper trough over
the eastern U.S. will move across the Southeast on Day 4/Wed. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep across the central Gulf coast, GA
and FL. Thunderstorms will likely accompany the front, with some
potential for isolated strong storms across north FL, though overall
severe potential appears too limited to include probabilities at
this time.

After Day 4/Wed, strong surface high pressure and cold/stable
conditions will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Little thunderstorm potential is expected Day 5/Thu through the weekend.

..Leitman.. 02/16/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 170857
SWOD48
SPC AC 170856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In the wake of a prior Arctic cold front moving offshore the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts, strong surface high pressure will settle over a
large portion of the CONUS through much of the period. This will
result in a dry, stable airmass and thunderstorm potential will be
low. Severe storms are not expected during the Day 4-8 period.

..Leitman.. 02/17/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 180917
SWOD48
SPC AC 180915

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Dry and stable surface high pressure will persist across much of the
CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. This will result in a dearth of
moisture and continental trajectories preclude Gulf moisture return.
By the end of the period around Day 8/Tue, an upper ridge over the
western U.S. will creep east over the Plains. This may allow some
modest Gulf moisture to return northward across parts of TX.
Regardless, thunderstorm potential appears low this weekend into
early next week.

..Leitman.. 02/18/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 190854
SWOD48
SPC AC 190852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Persistent surface high pressure across portions of the Southeast
and Gulf Coast regions will result in a dearth of boundary layer
moisture through at least Day 6/Mon. This will preclude much
potential for thunderstorms.

By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Tue-Wed, an upper ridge
over the western U.S. will weaken as it shifts east toward the
Plains, owing to an upper shortwave trough developing southeast
across the Rockies. This will result in lee low development across
the southern Plains. Forecast guidance is in fairly good agreement
even at this extended range that a surface low will move from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity. In response, southerly
low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport modest
moisture northward ahead of a cold front from the ArkLaTex into the
Deep South by Day 8/Wed. While severe potential appears limited by
weak moisture return, thunderstorm potential is likely to increase
late Day 7/Tue into Day 8/Wed.

..Leitman.. 02/19/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 200951
SWOD48
SPC AC 200950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over parts of the
western to central Gulf coast vicinity on Day 4/Sun in association
with a weakening upper shortwave trough moving across the region.

After a lull in precipitation potential around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue,
thunderstorm potential may increase late in the forecast period. An
upper ridge over the western U.S. will shift east across the Plains
on Day 7/Wed before a deepening trough ejects across the Rockies to
the MS Valley on Day 8/Thu. During this time, lee low development
over the southern Plains will result in strengthening southerly
low-level flow over the western Gulf. Increasing moisture return
ahead of the eastward developing low and attendant cold front will
likely result in thunderstorm development from the ArkLaTex to the
Mid-South vicinity on Day 8/Thu. While some severe potential could
become favorable in this pattern, uncertainty regarding northward
extent of moisture return, and timing of key features at this longer
time range, precludes severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 02/20/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 210922
SWOD48
SPC AC 210921

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A dry airmass will be in place across the CONUS for all of next
week. A cold front will move south across the Gulf on Monday. While
some moisture recovery will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday, another
front will move into the northern Gulf on Wednesday night and keep
moisture offshore. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be
minimal and severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through the
extended forecast period.

..Bentley.. 02/21/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 220853
SWOD48
SPC AC 220852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
At the beginning of the forecast period, dry conditions will be
prevalent across the entire Gulf basin. Southerly flow and some
moisture return will begin Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold
front pushes dry air into the Gulf again early Thursday. This
continued dry air across the Gulf will continue to limit moisture
availability needed for any severe weather threat. Beyond D8/Sat
there is a better signal for ridging across the central Plains and a
return to quality low-level moisture across parts of Texas. However,
until that time, severe weather potential will remain low.

..Bentley.. 02/22/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 230935
SWOD48
SPC AC 230933

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4,
but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front
advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity
for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond,
most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture
recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across
the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase
thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time, thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the
lack of sufficient instability.

..Bentley.. 02/23/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 240956
SWOD48
SPC AC 240954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast on
Thursday with a strong cold front sharpening along the Appalachians
and moving into the Atlantic. Given the persistent continental
airmass preceding the cold front with minimal moisture recovery,
instablity should be quite weak. However, forecast soundings show
some weak instability which could promote a few lightning flashes
across the Carolinas and vicinity.

In the wake of the cold front, dry air will remain across the CONUS
and will penetrate well into the Gulf. This should limit any
lightning potential on Friday and Saturday. By D7/Sun an D8/Mon,
sufficient moisture recovery across the Gulf and inland penetration
across the southern Plains and Southeast may result in the potential
for thunderstorms and perhaps a few strong to severe storms.
However, at this time, this potential does not appear high enough to
warrant severe weather probabilities for either day.

..Bentley.. 02/24/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 250957
SWOD48
SPC AC 250955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A dry, continental airmass across the eastern CONUS and northern
Gulf will keep severe weather potential low on D4/Fri and D5/Sat. By
D6/Sun, as the mid-level low starts to translate into the southern
Plains, robust low-level moisture advection is expected to occur
ahead of a developing surface cyclone. After this time, severe
weather may be possible any day through early next week. In general,
the overall pattern suggests moisture returning to the southern
Plains and parts of the Southeast with a broad trough in the western
CONUS with a series of shortwave troughs advecting into the Plains
and eventually across the eastern CONUS. This pattern will likely
support one or more severe weather episodes, but pinpointing the
exact day and location will require less variance in the timing and
amplitude of the mid-level pattern within the extended range
ensemble suite. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities are
warranted at this time.

..Bentley.. 02/25/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 260955
SWOD48
SPC AC 260954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential will be low to start the period with
northerly flow across the Gulf on D4/Saturday. On D5/Sunday, a
compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest which
will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains.
As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east,
favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the
Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return
across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves
across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D6/Monday.
However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as
a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave
ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued
moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture
advection continues.

...D7/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley...
By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be
complete with 70F dewpoints forecast by both GFS and ECMWF
ensembles. Aloft however, there is significant disagreement
regarding the amplitude of the larger scale wave on Tuesday. The
less amplified GFS seems to be the outlier, with a more amplified
solution preferred by most other extended range guidance. However,
even the GFS would pose a severe weather threat across parts of East
Texas into the Mid-Lower Mississippi Valley. The inherent
uncertainty in a Day 7 forecast and the modest spread regarding the
mid-level trough evolution make specific factors such as severe
hazards and storm mode nebulous at this time. However, there is
enough confidence in at least mid-60s dewpoints well inland with an
ejecting large scale trough, to introduce broad 15% severe weather probabilities on D7/Tuesday from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi
Valley region.

...D8/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast...
Some severe weather threat will likely exist on Wednesday ahead of a
squall line that may be ongoing along or ahead of the cold front.
Uncertainties in the mid-level pattern on Tue/D7 will be further
exacerbated on Day 8. In addition, it is unclear whether full
moisture recovery will occur across the eastern Gulf ahead of the
cold frontal passage. This will have significant implications on the
moisture quality ahead of the front on Wed/D8 and thus the
instability available.

..Bentley.. 02/26/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 271003
SWOD48
SPC AC 271002

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on
Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central
High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates
east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across
the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture
return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it
moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on
D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday
afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains.
Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with
continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level
moisture advection continues.

By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be
complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS
and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is
increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with
an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern
Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS
has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the
confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a
significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe
weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central
Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event
draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection
including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line
will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including
strong tornadoes.

...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast...
The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended
guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater
moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the
Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very
strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat
from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by
prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening
surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat
exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday.

..Bentley.. 02/27/2025

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