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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2261

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 11 18:17:48 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 111817
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111817=20
    MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-111945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2261
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1217 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

    Areas affected...The Coastal Carolinas into southeast Virginia and
    southeast Maryland

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 111817Z - 111945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will increase
    this afternoon across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia.

    DISCUSSION...A weakly unstable environment (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) has
    spread across much of the eastern Carolinas and into far southeast
    Virginia where mid to upper 60s dewpoints are present. Strong ascent
    within strengthening tropospheric flow has kept widespread
    precipitation across much of the warm sector which has limited
    instability. Some weak line segments/bowing segments have developed
    across central North Carolina into southeast Virginia, but it has
    remained mostly sub-severe due to the weak instability. Additional
    line segments are trying to develop along the synoptic front, but
    are embedded within moderate rainfall with minimal instability at
    this time. As the synoptic front sharpens and strengthens more
    through the afternoon and starts to accelerate east, expect
    additional strengthening, perhaps with the front catching up
    to/combining with the ongoing line segments across central North
    Carolina. If/when this occurs is when the primary damaging
    wind/isolated tornado threat is expected this afternoon given the
    very strong tropospheric flow (65 knots at 1km and over 100 knots at
    7km per RAX VWP). Trends will be monitored through the afternoon and
    if a better organized, eastward accelerating convective line becomes
    more apparent this afternoon, a watch may be needed.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 12/11/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9h6sNW0NPzA8pQVcn20RUq_iAxKfdwDQHFENXx7904nn8PyBdBuXSTl7UJNQw2ULGMrGR_xcs= WBrpYz_8f716b0pz_g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

    LAT...LON 32547986 32158040 32308070 32728072 34487967 36127832
    37457705 38267596 38337536 38257499 36977584 36497576
    36007549 35597535 35197545 35087579 34797628 34517651
    34637679 34567709 34367752 34067780 33777791 33827817
    33797854 33577885 33347905 33107915 32547986=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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