ACUS11 KWNS 101555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101554=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-101730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Areas affected...portions of central Alabama into far western
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 101554Z - 101730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat should continue to gradually increase
through the morning, into the afternoon hours. A few tornadoes
and/or severe gusts are the main threats. Convective trends are
being monitored for the need of a Tornado Watch. An upgrade to a
Slight Risk is also expected for portions of the region.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually been increasing in
coverage and intensity across central AL within a low-level moisture
axis. Recently, a supercell structure has developed and may have
produced a tornado in western AL. Immediately preceding these storms
is a 30+ kt southwesterly LLJ that is expected to intensify into the
late morning/early afternoon hours. At the same time, surface
heating may boost MLCAPE over 500 J/kg amid upper 60s F surface
dewpoints and modest tropospheric lapse rates. Latest observations
show a diffuse baroclinic zone across central AL into far western
GA. Here, hodographs will be most enlarged amid a potentially
strengthening LLJ and aforementioned adequate buoyancy. Additional
supercell structures are possible this afternoon, with a few
tornadoes and severe gusts the main threats.=20

Questions remain regarding when an uptick in severe may be realized
(i.e. late morning vs. early afternoon), so it is unclear when a
Tornado Watch may need to be issued. Convective trends will continue
to be monitored for the need of a Tornado Watch at some point today. Furthermore, given the anticipated uptick in severe, a Slight Risk
will be issued for the upcoming 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4irLG9Rpw9pe4nIPGPRTacxt2KIxPlRoxsa1OLKhLw7FtNJCTEFUwUFDSHwvret9-hgMNU5T9= 8H8yKKZjjYpnVQrs8s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON 32948400 32578424 32388529 32268635 32348705 32478757
32678789 33218741 33578665 33638560 33458447 33298423
32948400=20


=3D =3D =3D
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