ACUS02 KWNS 050657
SWODY2
SPC AC 050655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New
Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a mid-level trough will slowly drift eastward along the Arizona/Mexico border. Stronger mid-level flow will round the base
of this trough Friday afternoon and emerge into the southern Plains
Friday night and early Saturday. Some moisture return will occur
above the surface front which will result in weak instability across
Texas and perhaps into southeast New Mexico. As stronger mid-level
flow emerges across the southern Plains, isolated to scattered
elevated thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico and
Far West Texas, to parts of central Texas. However, weak instability
should keep any severe weather threat limited.

..Bentley.. 12/05/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051655
SWODY2
SPC AC 051654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New
Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...

The upper low and attendant trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will
slowly pivot eastward on Friday. As modestly enhanced midlevel
southwesterly flow overspreads portions of the southern Rockies and
TX, midlevel moisture also will increase. Steepening midlevel lapse
rates will support weak elevated instability, and isolated
thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern NM into central
TX. Severe potential is expected to remain low.

..Leitman.. 12/05/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060636
SWODY2
SPC AC 060634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas
on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection vicinity before progressing
northeastward through the southern High Plains throughout the
period. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this low, spreading
eastward across the southern Plains. Low-level flow across the
southern Plains will also increase ahead of this system, resulting
in strengthening warm-air advection throughout the day.

Surface easterlies are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, but a
stationary boundary along the TX Coast will prevent inland
penetration of any notable low-level moisture. Even so, moderate
mid-level moisture and increasing large-scale lift ahead of the
approaching upper low will result in a large area of precipitation.
Cooling mid-level temperatures may help support modest buoyancy,
with isolated thunderstorms expected within the larger precipitation
shield. The probability of any severe thunderstorms is very low.

..Mosier.. 12/06/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061714
SWODY2
SPC AC 061712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas
on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...

The positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies and
northwest Mexico will shift east over the central/southern Plains on
Saturday. Increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow associated with
this feature will overspread much of TX toward the Lower MS Valley,
aiding in northeast transport of midlevel moisture with time.

At the surface, boundary layer moisture will remain scant as a
stationary boundary near the TX coast precludes inland transport of
Gulf moisture. Nevertheless, increasing lift associated with the
approaching upper trough and cooling midlevel temperatures resulting
in weak elevated instability, will support isolated thunderstorm
potential across much of TX toward the Red River vicinity. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 12/06/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070652
SWODY2
SPC AC 070650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for
severe thunderstorms is very low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is
forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward
across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the
southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and
Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level
jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will
likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving
quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into
eastern KY.

Progression of this system will displace it north of the more
favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX
Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the
Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection
across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in
elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation
shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very
low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to
produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR.
However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe
potential low.

..Mosier.. 12/07/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071647
SWODY2
SPC AC 071645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are still possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for
severe thunderstorms remains very low.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Southern Plains and
impinge on the TN Valley while preceding a larger upper trough that
is poised to overspread the central and northern CONUS tomorrow
(Sunday). The approach of the Southern Plains mid-level trough will
encourage broad low-level warm-air/moisture advection across
portions of the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley regions. Latest
guidance consensus continues to depict a warm-sector characterized
by scant buoyancy, with widespread rainfall and embedded elevated
thunderstorms expected to overspread the Lower MS and TN Valleys
Sunday into Sunday night. High-resolution guidance consensus hints
at the possibility of 100-500 J/kg SBCAPE over southern LA by
afternoon peak heating, amid curved and elongated hodographs. While
a rotating storm or perhaps brief tornado cannot be completely ruled
out, the lack of confidence in developing surface-based buoyancy
precludes severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080655
SWODY2
SPC AC 080653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification
on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to
extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial
evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough
moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves
from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario.

A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes
shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent
shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push
southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the
southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the
front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the
period over northern LA/west-central MS.

This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad
warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints
likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad
area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector
throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse
rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow
will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday
night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs,
with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential.
Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it
moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However,
minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability
potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall
severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any
probabilities.

..Mosier.. 12/08/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081731
SWODY2
SPC AC 081729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough covering much of the CONUS is forecast to
amplify further on Monday, as multiple shortwaves move through the
large-scale trough. One shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly
from the OH/TN Valley region toward the Mid Atlantic during the day,
as a trailing low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from Texas into
the Southeast. Farther north and west, a strong shortwave trough
will move across the Great Lakes region, while another shortwave
will dig southeastward from the Great Basin into the
Southwest/southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cyclone is
forecast to move eastward from north TX toward the ArkLaMiss region,
as a trailing cold front approaches the TX Gulf Coast vicinity.

...Lower MS Valley/Southeast/Mid-South...
Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will
continue to gradually spread northward across parts of the Southeast
on Monday, in advance of the approaching cold front and weak surface
low. Some weak convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning near
the central Gulf Coast vicinity within a zone of low-level
warm/moist advection. This convection may persist through the day,
though some weakening and veering of low-level flow is expected as
the lead midlevel shortwave trough moves quickly away from the
region toward the Mid Atlantic. Late in the period, as midlevel
height falls associated with the amplifying large-scale trough
overspread the region, convection may redevelop near the Gulf Coast
vicinity, and also farther north toward the Mid-South.

Deep-layer flow/shear will be conditionally favorable for organized
convection through the forecast period, but weak low/midlevel lapse
rates are expected to limit instability with both early-day
convection and also with any development later Monday night. The
weak instability is expected to limit the organized-severe threat,
but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, and probabilities may
need to be considered if trends support stronger
heating/destabilization than currently forecast.

..Dean.. 12/08/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090659
SWODY2
SPC AC 090658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent
Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored
by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern
High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the
parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the
mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt
500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians
early Wednesday morning.

A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to
move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some
guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along
the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast.

...Southeast...
A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to
move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s
by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest
secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves
through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning
low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor
lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be
strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper
updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the
developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into
southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late
afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment
could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a
tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the
northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into
middle/eastern TN.

...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning...
A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop
from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough
moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this
jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to
result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the
region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this
environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong
gust or two.

Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks
vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer
shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms
could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how
far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm
mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of
surface-based storms.

..Mosier.. 12/09/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091649
SWODY2
SPC AC 091648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent
Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

...Southeast...
An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively
tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by
early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent
weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the
Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive
cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization,
but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow
for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the
HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the
mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater
instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe
weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with
lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time,
expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection
and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the
threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be
the primary threat.

...Outerbanks...
As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z
Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and
start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level
flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to
advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability
is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell
potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a
confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if
it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move
inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind
gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate
instability forecast.

..Bentley.. 12/09/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100657
SWODY2
SPC AC 100656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead
of a cold front from eastern North Carolina into southern New
England on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough is expected to extend from central Canada
southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf
early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base
of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward
from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the
parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying.
Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern
periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout
the day.

An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward from
northern VA through the Hudson Valley into NH/VT. An attendant cold
front is forecast to sharpens as it moves quickly eastward, moving
off the East Coast by Wednesday evening.

...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England...
Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward into the
Carolinas and northern Mid-Atlantic States ahead of the approaching
cold front, with mid to upper 50s possible farther north into
southern New England. These dewpoints will support modest buoyancy,
with the overall buoyancy tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates and
widespread precipitation. Even so, a strongly forced convective line
is still expected to develop along the front as it moves quickly
eastward across the region during the afternoon. Deeper convection
is anticipated in this line when increasing large-scale ascent
aligns with the low-level forcing along the front. Guidance differs
on when and where this occurs, with some guidance suggesting it
occurs primarily offshore. Even so, there is still enough potential
for this occur onshore to maintain probabilities for strong gusts.
Expectation is for this deeper convection to combine with the robust
kinematic fields to provide a large reservoir of high-momentum air
capable of mixing down to the surface. Given the strength of the
forcing, this potential exists as far north across southern New
England where buoyancy is expected to be very low.

Additionally, some potential exists for surface-based storms within
the warm sector ahead of the front, provided that antecedent
precipitation does not entirely stabilize the low levels. Some
guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms
develops with low-level confluence within the warm sector over
coastal NC and the Outer Banks.

..Mosier.. 12/10/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101723
SWODY2
SPC AC 101722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN NC
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across many of the East
Coast States. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and
damaging winds is centered on eastern North Carolina during
Wednesday afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A longwave trough will extend from south-central Canada to the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday morning. A vigorous shortwave
impulse embedded within the basal portion of the trough will rapidly
advance into the Mid-Atlantic States by early evening and pivot
north to the St. Lawrence Valley Wednesday night. This will yield an increasingly negative tilt to the broad trough, with associated
intensification of deep-layer flow fields and surface cyclogenesis.

...Eastern NC vicinity...
A plume of mid 60s surface dew points are expected to advect north
across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA by Wednesday
afternoon. Boundary-layer destabilization should be tempered by
preceding weak convection within the warm conveyor and pervasive
cloudiness limiting insolation. Still, consensus of guidance
suggests the relatively warmest surface temperatures should occur
across eastern NC. Amid weak lapse rates, buoyancy should remain
meager to around 500 J/kg along the coast. Even so, favorable timing
of the synoptic evolution with respect to the diurnal heating cycle
should yield a strongly forced convective line along the progressive
cold front. Some guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of
surface-based storms might separately develop in low-level
confluence over coastal NC and the Outer Banks. At least a few
embedded supercells are plausible, yielding a tornado and wind
threat. The progressive nature of the front suggests the tornado
threat may be more sporadic with shorter-lived circulations embedded
in the line until it shifts offshore.

...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coasts...
Deep convection should be ongoing across parts of the FL Panhandle
into south GA at 12Z Wednesday. Despite the time of day, the
northern periphery of rich eastern Gulf moisture in conjunction with
enhanced low-level hodograph curvature will support a localized
tornado/wind threat through midday. Some potential may persist into
the afternoon over parts of the north/central FL Peninsula but
low-level winds will become more veered with time as the shortwave
trough rapidly advances away from this region. The northern extent
of the threat into GA/SC will be predicated on the degree of
surface-based destabilization, which appears to be a relative min in
the Southeast.

...Northeast...
Primary thunderstorm activity should be in the form of sporadic
lightning flashes amid scant elevated buoyancy within the low-level
warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance does suggest a low-topped
convective line may develop along the eastward-surging cold front
during the afternoon/evening. Surface-based instability may remain
negligible and lightning production appears unlikely. But with
intensifying wind fields, potential remains for strong surface gusts
capable of tree damage.

..Grams.. 12/10/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110624
SWODY2
SPC AC 110622

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving into the Canadian
Maritimes, a mid/upper cyclone is forecast to progress from the
Ontario/Quebec border vicinity eastward through Quebec on Thursday.
Strong mid-level flow throughout the base of this cyclone is
expected to extend from the northern/central Plains through the
Northeast. Even with these strong dynamics, extensive surface
ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the
eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Consequently, no thunderstorms are anticipated.

Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to
progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while
enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from
southern CA across the Southwest. Some modified moisture return is
anticipated across south TX late Thursday night/early Friday
morning, but this will remain well downstream of the shortwave
trough. As such, the lack of moisture/buoyancy ahead of this
shortwave will preclude thunderstorm development.

..Mosier.. 12/11/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111708
SWODY2
SPC AC 111706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday.

...Discussion...
A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of
the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm
probabilities remain apparent.

An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes.
Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most
organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few
lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow
rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night.

A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the
Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of
an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent,
buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg.

..Grams.. 12/11/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120656
SWODY2
SPC AC 120655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four
Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and
ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An
associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward
just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast
NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant
cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and
western KS.

Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to
mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold
front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by
early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to
remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level
jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm
sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to
result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through
Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the
expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong
vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support
small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts.

..Mosier.. 12/12/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121712
SWODY2
SPC AC 121711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night.

...Central States...
A shortwave trough near the Four Corners will move across the
southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by early Saturday.
The attendant lee surface cyclone will be weak as it tracks from the
Raton Mesa vicinity into eastern KS. Modified moisture return from
the western Gulf is anticipated within the broad low-level warm
conveyor ahead of the minor cyclone. Adequate buoyancy in
conjunction with timing of forcing for ascent attendant to the
shortwave trough should yield a pronounced increase in elevated
convection Friday night into early morning Saturday from the Red
River Valley towards the Lower MO Valley. Steeper mid-level lapse
rates will be confined to the north side of the mid-level jet in OK
to eastern KS. Weak mid-level lapse rates (around 6 C/km) will
curtail elevated buoyancy where low-level moisture progressively
increases with southern extent. Still, favorable veering of the wind
profile with height could yield transient, weak mid-level updraft
rotation across parts of east TX to the southern Ozarks. Small hail
may occur within the deepest updrafts, with large hail probabilities
appearing to be sub-5 percent.

...Northern CA...
A pair of shortwave troughs in the northeast Pacific will approach
the West Coast. The southern one of these should remain offshore of
the northern CA coast through 12Z Saturday. The downstream low-level
warm conveyor will yield a swath of rain ahead of a weak cold front.
Sufficient low-level moistening, along with some mid-level cooling
with the approaching trough, may support scant buoyancy by 09-12Z.
Overall thunderstorm probabilities early Saturday morning appear to
be around 10 percent near a portion of the northern CA coast.

..Grams.. 12/12/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130555
SWODY2
SPC AC 130554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Central/South-Central States...

An upper cyclone and attendant trough will lift east/northeast from
the central/southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Saturday. Only
a weak reflection of this upper system is expected at the surface,
where a low over eastern KS during the morning hours will generally
weaken as it lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Southerly
low-level flow will transport 60s F surface dewpoints into the TX
coast and east TX and the Sabine Valley vicinity through evening.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this low-level warm
advection regime ahead of the upper trough and weakening surface low
from east TX/LA into the Lower and Mid-MS Valley. A strong storm or
two may be possible across southeast TX into LA where deeper
boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based destabilization
will overlap with weak vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent
will remain weak as large-scale ascent remains displaced to the
north. Additionally, low and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor.
Overall severe potential is expected to remain negligible, and
thunderstorm activity across the region should diminish during the
evening hours.

...Pacific Coast States...

Persistent onshore flow is forecast through the evening hours as an
upper trough located offshore the Pacific coast Saturday morning
moves inland toward the Rockies by Sunday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected, especially during the 12-18z time frame
when large-scale ascent will be maximized amid steepening midlevel
lapse rates. A strong southwesterly low-level jet will overspread
portions of central CA during the morning to midday time period,
resulting in some hodograph curvature. However, cool surface
temperatures and very modest instability (generally less than 200
J/kg MLCAPE) will likely limit surface-based convection.

..Leitman.. 12/13/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131723
SWODY2
SPC AC 131722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Central/Southern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley...
An upper low will move from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on
Saturday. A surface low will weaken through the day as this trough
advances northeast. A sustained low-level jet will advance from the
Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and provide ample ascent and elevated
instability for thunderstorm activity through the day. Instability
should remain too limited for any severe weather threat from this
elevated convection. Weak surface heating across the ArkLaTex may be
sufficient for a few surface-based storms. However, instability will
be weak and ascent will mostly be focused north of this area.
Therefore, no severe storms are anticipated.

...California to the Pacific Northwest...
A trough approaching the Pacific coast on Saturday will result in
scattered thunderstorm activity from southwest Washington to central
California as cooler air aloft steepens lapse rates across the
region. Overall, weak instability combined with relatively weak
low-level flow should preclude any severe weather threat. A more
focused low-level jet will result in stronger low-level flow across
the central California Coast late Saturday morning into the early
afternoon. However, during this period, forecast soundings indicate
minimal to no instability which should preclude any severe weather
concern.

..Bentley.. 12/13/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140551
SWODY2
SPC AC 140549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on
Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will shift east into the Plains Sunday night into
early Monday. As a result, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly
mid/upper flow will envelop the central/southern Plains toward the
Mid/Upper MS Valley. At the surface, a deepening low will track east
along the international border in the vicinity of the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front is forecast to move
southeast across much of the northern/central Plains and Upper
Midwest, becoming positioned from central MO southwestward into
northwest TX by 12z Monday.

Southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned front will
allow upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints to spread northward across much
of TX into eastern OK, LA, AR and southern MO. Shortwave upper
ridging for much of the period prior to 03z will likely preclude
thunderstorm activity within the warm conveyor. However, stronger
height falls associated with the ejecting trough will overspread the
southern Plains (though stronger large-scale ascent will remain
focused further north). Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
likely to develop near the southeastward-advancing cold front in the
06-12z time frame. Favorable, vertically veering wind profiles
suggest some thunderstorm organization will be possible. However,
convection is expected to mostly remain elevated in nature given
cool surface temperatures overnight, resulting in little
surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates.
Furthermore, deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the front,
resulting in convection tracking to the cool side of the boundary.

Given cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates approaching 7
C/km in a moderately sheared environment, some small hail could
accompany the strongest updrafts across eastern OK into parts of AR
and southern MO. However, overall severe potential appears low/too
conditional to include probabilities at this time given stronger
large-scale ascent focused further north of better low-level
moisture, and expectation for limited surface-based instability.

..Leitman.. 12/14/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141718
SWODY2
SPC AC 141717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on
Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will shift east into the Plains Sunday night into
early Monday. As a result, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly
mid/upper flow will envelop the central/southern Plains toward the
Mid/Upper MS Valley. At the surface, a deepening low will track east
along the international border in the vicinity of the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front is forecast to move
southeast across much of the northern/central Plains and Upper
Midwest, becoming positioned from central MO southwestward into
northwest TX by 12z Monday.

Southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned front will
allow upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints to spread northward across much
of TX into eastern OK, LA, AR and southern MO. Shortwave upper
ridging for much of the period prior to 03z will likely preclude
thunderstorm activity within the warm conveyor. However, stronger
height falls associated with the ejecting trough will overspread the
southern Plains (though stronger large-scale ascent will remain
focused further north). As a result, isolated to scattered, mostly
elevated, thunderstorms are anticipated after 06Z from eastern
Oklahoma into north-central Arkansas and southern Missouri, along
and ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front. Instability is
expected to be mostly weak, particularly farther north where greater
forcing will be present. Therefore, despite favorable shear across
the warm sector, storm mode is expected to be messy given the lack
of stronger buoyancy, weak lapse rates, and the tendency for storms
to be undercut by the surface front through time. The expectation of
limited storm organization amid weak instability precludes the need
for a marginal risk at this time.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150621
SWODY2
SPC AC 150619

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.

...TX/OK/MO to the Lower MS Valley...

An upper trough over the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest
Monday morning will weaken as it shifts east/northeast across the
Great Lakes. The strongest deep-layer southwesterly flow associated
with this system will mainly be focused over the Mid/Lower MO and
Mid-MS Valleys into the Great Lakes. Though, modest vertical shear
will extend as far south as eastern OK and the Ozarks into the
ArkLaTex vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
extend from southeast MO into southeast OK and northwest Texas
Monday morning. This front will track east/southeast through the
period, becoming positioned from the TN Valley toward the ArkLaTex
and central TX by Tuesday morning.

Ahead of the front, upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will be
maintained by south/southwesterly low-level flow from central TX
toward the MO Bootheel and the Lower MS Valley. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into southern
MO and parts of AR. Additional convection will develop near the southeast-advancing cold front as far northeast as the Lower OH
Valley and southeast into central TX and the ArkLaTex/Lower MS
Valley through the period.

Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical shear will remain focused
north, and out of phase with, the area of better low-level moisture
across the south-central states. A couple of stronger storms may
produce small hail early in the period from eastern OK toward the MO
Bootheel. However, low-level inhibition and poor low-level lapse
rates are expected to limit surface-based instability. Deep-layer
flow parallel to the surface boundary, limited surface-based
instability, and weakening shear/ascent with southward extent,
should limit overall severe potential on Monday.

..Leitman.. 12/15/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151711
SWODY2
SPC AC 151710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify as it advances from the central
Plains to the Great Lakes on Monday. A strong surface low associated
with this trough will deepen across northern Ontario with a surface
front extending southward through the Great Lakes and into the
southern Plains. This front will become more diffuse and eventually
stall from eastern Texas to central Tennessee as the primary forcing
moves into the Great Lakes.

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
from northeast Texas across southeast Oklahoma and Arkansas. While
these storms may pose some severe threat before 12Z, minimal threat
is expected to continue after 12Z as heights rise across the region
and instability weakens through the morning. Additional instability
is forecast to develop farther south across east Texas and Louisiana
during the afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 70s with
dewpoints in the mid 60s. However, forcing is expected to remain
weak which should keep any storm development isolated. In addition,
if storms can develop, weak mid-level flow will keep deep-layer
shear muted and thus limit much severe weather threat during the
afternoon.

..Bentley.. 12/15/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160633
SWODY2
SPC AC 160631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains to the Lower
Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinities and across Florida on Tuesday. Severe-thunderstorm chances are low at this time.

...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex/Ozarks Vicinity...

An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS
Valley vicinity on Tuesday. A 500 mb jet max around 50-70 kt will
become oriented from eastern OK into the Ohio Valley/lower Great
Lakes area after 06z, and stronger height falls are not expected to
overspread the region until the nighttime hours. At the surface, 50s
to low/mid 60s F dewpoints are expected across south/east TX into
the Mid-South vicinity. A strong cold front will track southeast
across KS/OK during the evening, and by 06z be positioned from
northern AR into southeast OK and north-central TX. This boundary
will become a focus for increasing isentropic ascent and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms during the overnight/early Wednesday period.

Neutral height tendencies will likely suppress convection during the
day across much of the area. As convection develops along the
advancing cold front overnight, uncertainty remains regarding any
surface-based instability overlapping with stronger vertical shear
(which decreases rapidly with southward extent). Forecast soundings
vary across forecast guidance, but at least weak elevated
instability is expected driven by cooling aloft. Stronger elevated
cores could produce small hail, given forecast lapse rates around
6.8-7 C/km amid 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes (especially from
southeast OK into AR). Overall, severe potential appears quite
conditional for the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Will hold
off on including low-end hail probabilities, though a Marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk may be needed in later outlooks depending on
forecast trends.

...FL Peninsula...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday as a moist airmass
and at least weak instability overspread the region. Onshore,
easterly low-level flow will provide convergence along an inverted
surface trough. Given sufficient destabilization, this will support
development of thunderstorms moving onshore through evening. Weak
0-6 km bulk shear (less than 20 kt) will preclude organized
convection, and severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 12/16/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161717
SWODY2
SPC AC 161715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains to the Lower
Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinities and across Florida on Tuesday. Severe-thunderstorm chances are low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet streak across the Northwest early on Tuesday will
start to dig southeast toward the central Plains and sharpen the
mid-level trough by Tuesday night. As this occurs, a weak surface
low will develop across eastern Colorado and move into the Lower
Ohio Valley by the end of the period. A surface front associated
with this area of low pressure will accelerate southeast,
particularly after 06Z and end up somewhere from Memphis to Waco by
12Z Wednesday.

...ArkLatex into central Arkansas...
Despite broad, weak isentropic ascent through the day, only isolated thunderstorm activity is expected from east Texas into the Ozarks
due to neutral heights aloft. However, thunderstorm activity is
expected to increase after 06Z as the mid-level trough strengthens
and approaches the southern Plains/ArkLaTex and a surface front
becomes better defined and accelerates southeast. Forecast soundings
show moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) and lapse rates
(~7 C/km) from southern Arkansas to the ArkLaTex. However, the
stronger flow will remain mostly across northern Arkansas into the
Ohio Valley. Therefore, shear will be relatively weak where
thunderstorm activity is most likely along the front from 06Z to
12Z. This will likely result in loosely organized storms which will
likely be undercut by the advancing cold front. While isolated hail
or a wind gust or two cannot be ruled out, severe weather
probabilities remain low.

...Florida...
Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across much of
the Florida Peninsula as 1200-1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops during peak
heating. Shear will be mostly less than 20 knots which should limit
storm organization. However, moderate instability and scattered to
widespread storm development could result in some small hail or
gusty winds. Overall, severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Bentley.. 12/16/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170632
SWODY2
SPC AC 170631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into northeast/central Texas early on Wednesday and across the Southeast,
Carolinas, and Florida Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A positively tilted upper trough will develop east across the
eastern U.S. on Wednesday. Moderate mid/upper level southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys into the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic regions. At the surface, a cold front
will extend from southern OH to southeast AR to central TX at the
beginning of the period. This front will develop southeast across
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, mostly moving offshore from the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts by Thursday morning.

...Northeast TX to the TN Valley...

Showers and elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the
surface cold front Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings show poor
low-level lapse rates and little surface-based instability. However,
up to 500 J/kg MUCAPE will be present, courtesy of cool midlevel
temperatures and modest midlevel lapse rates. Deep-layer flow is
forecast to remain mostly unidirectional and parallel to the front,
suggesting convective undercutting by the boundary/outflows. While
some briefly organized structure may persist the first hour or two
of the forecast period, convection is expected to rapidly decrease
in intensity with southeast extent across the TN Valley/Gulf Coast
states. This is largely due to more modest boundary-layer moisture
and weakening vertical shear across MS/AL.

...FL/GA/Carolinas...

Isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching upper trough/surface
front will increase across the region through day. However,
large-scale ascent will remain weak until late, with the vorticity
maxima trailing well behind the surface front. Nevertheless, showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be possible within the low-level
warm-advection regime, especially during the afternoon/early
evening. Forecast guidance varies in the depiction of the low-level thermodynamics and degree of destabilization. Though some support
for an organized storm or two is plausible, given around 750-1000
J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt. While a
strong storm could produce gusty winds or even small hail (given
somewhat elongated/straight hodographs and cool midlevel temps),
forecast confidence regarding severe potential remains fairly low.
Will refrain from introducing low-end/Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk probabilities at this time, though an outlook area may be required
in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 12/17/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171731
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible
through mid-day Wednesday across portions of the Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper trough will develop east across the
eastern U.S. on Wednesday. Moderate mid/upper level southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys into the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic regions. At the surface, a cold front
will extend from southern OH to southeast AR to central TX at the
beginning of the period. This front will develop southeast across
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, mostly moving offshore from the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts by Thursday morning.

...Northeast Texas to the Tennessee Valley...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing along a frontal zone from northeast
Texas to western Tennessee at the beginning of the forecast period.
These storms will likely be mostly anafrontal due to the
southeastward advancing cold front and storm motion parallel to the
front. In addition, these storms should already be in their
weakening phase by 12Z as they outrun the better low-level
instability. The only exception will be across western/middle
Tennessee between 12 and 18Z where some instability will remain and
stronger flow could promote more organization/propagation ahead of
the cold front. A damaging wind gust or a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out early in the forecast period. Despite the weakening
instability through the morning, some damaging wind threat could
persist into parts of eastern Tennessee and far southern Kentucky
through mid-day as the low-level jet strengthens to over 50 knots
during the morning hours.

...FL/GA/Carolinas...
Southerly flow ahead of the approaching mid-level trough will
establish low to mid 60s dewpoints across much of Florida into
eastern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas by Wednesday afternoon.
Weak to moderate instability is expected within a broad region of
weak isentropic ascent across the region. Upper-level forcing will
lag well behind the front which should keep any thunderstorm
development isolated. However, if any storms develop, they could
have some marginal hail/wind threat given moderate instability and
shear present across the region Wednesday afternoon. Storm coverage
concerns related to weak forcing are the primary limiting factor to
severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 12/17/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180550
SWODY2
SPC AC 180549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Florida...

A shortwave upper trough within the area of broader eastern CONUS
troughing will be oriented from the Carolinas to the northeast Gulf
of Mexico Thursday morning. This system will shift east across FL
and offshore the Atlantic coast through 00z. At the surface, a cold
front located over north FL early in the day will develop southward
across the Peninsula. Low-level flow will be veered/northerly ahead
of the front, resulting in little low-level convergence.
Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will remain well north of
the Peninsula. While weak destabilization is forecast (500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE), mainly over the southern Peninsula, poor lapse rates and
warm midlevel temperatures will preclude severe thunderstorm
potential. Most CAMs and calibrated thunder guidance also indicate
little thunderstorm activity. Will maintain 10 percent general
thunder probabilities for the southeast FL coast, but even that may
be generous.

..Leitman.. 12/18/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181650
SWODY2
SPC AC 181648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves
will remain in place across much of the central/eastern CONUS on
Thursday. Within the large-scale trough, one strong shortwave will
move eastward off of the New England coast, while another moves
southeastward from the Great Plains toward the Ohio Valley and
Southeast. A weaker shortwave trough will move across Florida during
the morning and early afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude
mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of WA/OR
during the day.

A dearth of low-level moisture and instability should generally
limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some
convection may linger early in the period near the NC coast, but
thunderstorm potential in this area is expected to remain offshore.
Otherwise, isolated storm development cannot be ruled out across
parts of south FL.

...Parts of Florida...
In the wake of a weak frontal passage, very light low-level
northerly flow is expected on Thursday across much of the FL
Peninsula. Lingering low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s
F) will support modest diurnal destabilization. However, despite the
presence of the approaching shortwave trough and increasing
mid/upper-level flow, there is currently very little signal for deep
convection across the peninsula on Thursday, likely resulting from
modest to poor midlevel lapse rates and weak to negligible low-level convergence and ascent. A conditional general thunderstorm area has
been maintained across parts of south FL, where somewhat stronger heating/destabilization is possible, though confidence in storm
development remains low.

..Dean.. 12/18/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190546
SWODY2
SPC AC 190545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough developing southeast over the
northern/central Plains to the to the Mid-MS Valley will reinforce
mean upper troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS on Friday.
Strong surface high pressure will overspread the central U.S. while
a cold front develops far south into the Gulf and offshore the
Atlantic coast. This will leave a dry and stable airmass over much
of the CONUS, and thunderstorm chances will be low.

..Leitman.. 12/19/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191716
SWODY2
SPC AC 191716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1116 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough developing southeast over the
northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley will reinforce mean
upper troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS on Friday. Strong
surface high pressure will overspread the central U.S. while a cold
front develops far south into the Gulf and offshore the Atlantic
coast. This will leave a dry and stable airmass over much of the
CONUS, and thunderstorm chances will be low.

..15_ows.. 12/19/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191733
SWODY2
SPC AC 191716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1116 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough developing southeast over the
northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley will reinforce mean
upper troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS on Friday. Strong
surface high pressure will overspread the central U.S. while a cold
front develops far south into the Gulf and offshore the Atlantic
coast. This will leave a dry and stable airmass over much of the
CONUS, and thunderstorm chances will be low.

..15_ows.. 12/19/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200550
SWODY2
SPC AC 200549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Discussion...
The large-scale pattern will be progressive on Saturday, with a
shortwave trough and related frontal band moving inland across the
Pacific Northwest and northern California. Steepening mid-level
lapse rates and weak buoyancy could yield isolated thunderstorms
mainly for coastal areas of Oregon and northern California during
the morning, and possibly into the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected given the minimal buoyancy but gusty winds could
occur with a storm or two along the immediate coast.

Elsewhere, prevalent surface high pressure east of the Rockies and
stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms.

..Guyer.. 12/20/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201712
SWODY2
SPC AC 201710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide will
translate slowly eastward through the day as a strong, compact, negatively-tilted mid-level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
Across the eastern CONUS a trough will persist on Saturday with dry,
offshore flow at the surface. The lack of low-level moisture will
limit any thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. The only
exception will be across the Oregon/northern California coasts where
cooling mid-level temps over the relatively warmer ocean waters may
result in some shallow instability and the potential for a few
thunderstorms. The strong low-level jet (50 to 70 knots from 12Z to
18Z Saturday along the Oregon/northern CA coast) may result in some
gusty winds, even where lightning is not present. However, overall,
limited instability should mitigate any severe weather potential.

..Bentley.. 12/20/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210648
SWODY2
SPC AC 210646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
A progressive upper-level pattern will continue across the CONUS on
Sunday. A continental polar airmass will remain across the eastern
CONUS which will preclude thunderstorm potential for most of the
country. A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific
Northwest and northern California coasts, particularly Sunday late
afternoon and evening as the next in a series of shortwave troughs
approaches the coast. Severe storms are not currently expected given
the limited buoyancy.

..Guyer.. 12/21/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211716
SWODY2
SPC AC 211714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging over the central CONUS will begin to break down
through the day Sunday as a shortwave trough, currently moving into
the Pacific Northwest, traverses the Rockies. A broad surface high
building over the eastern CONUS will maintain cool/dry conditions.
Weak lee troughing over the High Plains will promote gradual
moisture return along the TX Gulf coast, but moisture quality/depth
and poor mid-level lapse rates will be insufficient to support deep
convection. A pronounced upper wave noted over the northern Pacific
in water-vapor imagery will approach the West Coast through the
period. Latest forecast guidance suggests sufficient destabilization
for a few lightning flashes is possible as colder temperatures aloft
and broad scale ascent overspread the region. The potential for
severe convection remains low given very limited buoyancy.

..Moore.. 12/21/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220701
SWODY2
SPC AC 220659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough is expected to amplify from the central Rockies
to the south-central High Plains on Monday. Weak surface wave
development is expected across Texas into southern Oklahoma, with a
modest increase in low-level moisture across central/east Texas into
southern Oklahoma in advance of a cold front moving southeastward
across the southern High Plains. Increasing forcing for ascent and
elevated moisture transport should lead to increasing elevated
convection Monday night across north/northeast Texas into southeast
Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex. While a mid-level capping inversion may
tend to persist, updrafts should increasingly reach a sufficient depth/temperature late Monday night into early Tuesday for at least
isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible late Monday night
across the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California as weak
buoyancy develops with an upper trough approaching the coast and an inland-moving frontal band.

..Guyer.. 12/22/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221718
SWODY2
SPC AC 221716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

A midlevel shortwave trough will amplify from the central Rockies to
the south-central High Plains on Monday. A weak surface low will
likely develop across Texas into southern Oklahoma, with a modest
increase in low-level moisture across central/east Texas into
southern Oklahoma in advance of a cold front moving southeastward
across the southern High Plains. Increasing forcing for ascent and
elevated moisture transport should lead to increasing elevated
convection Monday night across north/northeast Texas into southeast
Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex. While a mid-level capping inversion may
tend to persist, updrafts should increasingly reach a sufficient depth/temperature late Monday night into early Tuesday for at least
isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible late Monday night
across the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California as
temperatures aloft cool with the approaching mid-level trough.

..Bentley.. 12/22/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230702
SWODY2
SPC AC 230700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few locally severe storms could occur across parts of central and
East Texas on Tuesday.

...Central/East Texas...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will amplify and spread
east-southeastward on Tuesday across the south-central Plains toward
the Ozarks. Low-level moisture will modestly increase across the
Texas coastal plain into south-central/east Texas during the day.
Lower 60s F surface dewpoints will become increasingly common inland
ahead a southeast-moving cold front that will extend from
north-central Texas southwestward toward the Edwards Plateau Tuesday
afternoon.

In proximity to a surface wave and near/north of a warm front,
scattered convection should be ongoing Tuesday morning across far north/northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity/southeast Oklahoma.
Modest diurnal destabilization (up to 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) should
occur ahead of the southeastward-moving effective cold front, mainly
across south-central to east/southeast Texas including the I-35/I-45
corridors. As this occurs, a diurnally related intensification of
storms is expected near the southeast-advancing front, and possibly
also in the nearby free warm sector during the afternoon. A few of
these storms could be severe.

Effective shear will not be overly strong (30-35 kt), including some
flow weakness continuing to be noted in model soundings around 2-3
km AGL. Even so, some organized storm modes including weak/transient
supercells could occur with marginally severe hail and/or a few
locally severe wind gusts, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

...Northern California/Pacific Northwest...
As a prominent upper-level trough and related frontal band moves
inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern
California coastal areas and interior valley on Tuesday, early in
the day with the frontal band and with post-frontal cellular
convection during the day as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen. A
more limited/isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist across
other parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231719
SWODY2
SPC AC 231718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few locally severe storms could occur across parts of central and
East Texas on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday a progressive upper-level pattern will be present with a
positively tilted mid-level trough advancing off the New England
Coast, a mid-level trough amplifying across the southern Plains, and
a stronger trough moving from off the California coast to the
Southwest during the forecast period. Inland low-level moisture will
result in some instability, adequate for thunderstorms across
portions of the southern Plains. A few of these storms may be severe
across central/east Texas.

...Central/East Texas...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
within the warm air advection zone across eastern Oklahoma. South of
this activity, isolated convection may be possible within a region
of broad ascent associated with a 30 to 35 knot low-level jet.
Instability and shear will likely be too weak for severe
thunderstorms from this activity. However, by Tuesday
afternoon/evening, continued moisture advection and some weak
surface heating should result in greater instability along and south
of the cold front/composite outflow across northeast Texas. In
addition to the greater instability, forcing will increase ahead of
the approaching trough and mid-level flow will strengthen. This will
likely result in scattered convection amid weak to moderate
instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. Some transient supercell
structures may be possible along and ahead of the cold front as it
advances southeast through the afternoon and evening. While the
low-level flow is forecast to be quite weak, particularly across
southeast Texas where instability will be greatest, forecast
hodographs do show significant clockwise curvature in the lowest 1
to 2 km. Therefore, a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly
with any stronger/longer-lived supercells which may develop.

...Northern California/Pacific Northwest...
As a prominent upper-level trough and related frontal band moves
inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern
California coastal areas and the adjacent Central Valley on Tuesday
morning with the frontal band and later in the day with post-frontal
cellular convection as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen. A more limited/isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist across other
parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest.

..Bentley.. 12/23/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240653
SWODY2
SPC AC 240652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday).

...Synopsis...
In the southern stream, a lead shortwave trough initially over east
Texas on Wednesday is expected to steadily weaken toward the Lower
Mississippi Valley, while a secondary and more prominent shortwave
trough modestly amplifies as it progresses east-southeastward over
the southern Rockies toward far west Texas Wednesday night.

...Southern Louisiana...
Some thunderstorms may linger Wednesday morning from near the
middle/upper Texas coast into Louisiana. It is not entirely clear
how far north the warm sector will develop, but it is possible that
modest instability develops across far southern Louisiana during the
day, although weakening mass field trends would suggest that the
main warm/moist sector will remain offshore. If the airmass does
modestly destabilize inland, a few strong storms could occur given
that moderately strong deep-layer/low-level shear will exist near
the warm front. Current thinking is that organized severe potential
will remain limited, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1
time frame.

...West/northwest Texas...
Related to the approaching shortwave trough, steadily increasing
forcing for ascent via DPVA/warm advection will arrive late
Wednesday night. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and minimal
buoyancy could potentially support isolated elevated thunderstorm
development by daybreak (12z) Thursday.

...Pacific Northwest/northern California...
A few near-coastal thunderstorms could occur as a shortwave
trough/frontal band approaches the coast and mid-level lapse rates
regionally steepen.

..Guyer.. 12/24/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241716
SWODY2
SPC AC 241715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday).

...Synopsis...
A lead shortwave trough initially along the Middle Texas Gulf Coast
region will continue to move east on Wednesday. Model trends
continue to show this feature weakening through the day. Further,
this trough has also trended slightly southward in placement over
the past few model cycles. A secondary, stronger shortwave trough
will move through the Four Corners and reach the southern High
Plains by Thursday morning.

...Southern Louisiana...
Current observations within the Gulf show low 60s F dewpoints
offshore. Given the forecast location of the lead shortwave and
weakening mass fields during the day, these dewpoints appear more
likely to remain generally offshore, south of a weak warm front.
While a few thunderstorms appear probable during the afternoon near
the boundary, very minimal buoyancy (100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE)
suggests the potential for severe storms will remain low. Marginally
stronger storms could occur in far southeast Louisiana, where
buoyancy could be locally greater.

...West/Northwest Texas...
Forcing for ascent will increase towards Thursday morning. Mid-level
lapse rates will steepen sufficiently to support a few stronger
elevated convective cores. A few isolated lightning flashes will be
possible with this activity.

...Pacific Northwest/northern California...
With the approach of another shortwave trough late Wednesday
night/early Thursday, mid-level height falls/cooling will support
isolated thunderstorms along the immediate coastline.

..Wendt.. 12/24/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291708
SWODY2
SPC AC 291706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will lift northeast across New England
toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. At the surface, deep low
pressure over southern Ontario will lift north while an attendant
cold front pushes offshore the Atlantic coast. In the wake of the
Northeast U.S. system, another upper shortwave trough will migrate
from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley
region. A surface low is forecast to move from the KS/NE to IL/IN. A
prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico will result in
richer boundary-layer moisture remaining confined to the immediate
coastal area despite increasing southerly low-level flow across the south-central U.S. Meager elevated instability, generally less than
200 J/kg MUCAPE, will overspread portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS
Valley ahead of the surface low and upper trough. While a couple of
lightning flashes are possible with developing precipitation during
the evening/overnight, coverage is expected to remain less than 10
percent, precluding a general thunder delineation.

..Leitman.. 12/29/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300634
SWODY2
SPC AC 300632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Outer Banks into
southern New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough is forecast to move from the OH Valley
northeastward into southern New England on Tuesday. An attendant
surface low will take a similar path throughout the day while
gradually occluding, reaching western NY by late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning. An associated cold front is expected to push from
the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys eastward through the remainder of the OH
Valley, the TN Valley, and Southeast States. By Wednesday evening, a
surface low generated by secondary cyclogenesis at the triple point
will likely be over the Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, with the
associated cold front extending from this low southwestward through
the central Carolinas, southern GA, and the western FL Peninsula.
Continued eastward progress will take this front off the East Coast
and through all but south FL by early Wednesday morning.

Limited low-level moisture and attendant buoyancy is anticipated
ahead of this shortwave and its associated cold front, precluding
thunderstorm development across much of the eastern CONUS. Some
deeper convective cores are possible along and ahead of the cold
front across the middle OH Valley Wednesday morning. A few lightning
flashes are possible, but current expectation is for overall
coverage to remain less than 10 percent. A greater risk for
thunderstorms is possible from the NC Outer Banks into southern New
England from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Here, strong
warm-air advection within the warm conveyor could result in a few
elevated storms deep enough to produce lightning.

..Mosier.. 12/30/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301708
SWODY2
SPC AC 301707

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Outer Banks into
southern New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will pivot northeast from the Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Tuesday. A prior cold frontal passage
across this region will result in limited boundary-layer moisture
despite increasing low-level south/southeasterly flow ahead of a
surface low. The exception will be along the immediate coast from
near the Outer Banks to southern New England Tuesday night into
early Wednesday. Surface-based instability will remain limited, but
weak elevated instability amid increasing large-scale ascent and
cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms from the
Outer Banks (Tuesday afternoon) into southern New England (mainly
after 00z). Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 12/30/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310636
SWODY2
SPC AC 310635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow is expected to persist across the CONUS on
Wednesday as one shortwave trough exits the Northeast and a series
of low-amplitude shortwave troughs follow in its wake across the
Plains. The strongest of these latter shortwaves is expected to move southeastward from the northern Rockies into the central Plains.

At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period over southern
New England before then quickly moving northeastward. Surface
ridging associated with a dry continental airmass will settle in
across the central and eastern CONUS, precluding any thunderstorm
potential. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated across the
western CONUS as well.

..Mosier.. 12/31/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 311645
SWODY2
SPC AC 311643

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will be situated over northern Ontario with a broad
area of lower heights across the Canadian Prairies. South of this
low, a broad fetch of moderate to strong high-level flow will extend
from the western US into the Southeast, with a leading wave ejecting
in negative-tilt fashion across the Northeast. With time, upper
ridging will occur along the West Coast.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the central to
southern Plains, with a deepening low over Maine, in association
with the upper wave. As a result, northerly winds will exist along
the Gulf Coast, with offshore flow along the East Coast as well. The
end result will be stable conditions across the bulk of the CONUS,
with little if any thunderstorm or lightning potential. While a
flash or two cannot be ruled out ahead of the New England surface
low, any weak elevated instability should remain largely offshore.

..Jewell.. 12/31/2024

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010610
SWODY2
SPC AC 010609

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern
CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the
central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States
and southern Appalachians. Another shortwave trough is expected to
drop southeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning.
Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing east
of the Rockies through Friday morning.

Farther west, expansive upper ridging will gradually shift eastward
throughout the day, ending the period extended from northern Mexico
into western British Columbia. A strong shortwave trough will
approach the Pacific Northwest coast, but is expected to remain
offshore throughout the period.

The surface pattern is expected to feature ridging centered over the
TN Valley, resulting in offshore flow across the majority of the
CONUS. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains,
helping to reinforce the cold and dry conditions already in place.
Westerly surface winds are forecast across the Gulf of Mexico, but
the development of a weak surface low just off the south TX coast
should preclude any low-level moisture from advecting inland.
Consequently, any thunderstorms activity should stay over the
western Gulf. Dry and stable conditions will prevent thunderstorm
development elsewhere.

..Mosier.. 01/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010717
SWODY2
SPC AC 010716

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN DISCUSSION

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern
CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the
central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States
and southern Appalachians. Another shortwave trough is expected to
drop southeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning.
Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing east
of the Rockies through Friday morning.

Farther west, expansive upper ridging will gradually shift eastward
throughout the day, ending the period extended from northern Mexico
into western British Columbia. A strong shortwave trough will
approach the Pacific Northwest coast, but is expected to remain
offshore throughout the period.

The surface pattern is expected to feature ridging centered over the
TN Valley, resulting in offshore flow across the majority of the
CONUS. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains,
helping to reinforce the cold and dry conditions already in place. Easterly/northeasterly surface winds are forecast across the Gulf of
Mexico, but the development of a weak surface low just off the south
TX coast should preclude any low-level moisture from advecting
inland. Consequently, any thunderstorms activity should stay over
the western Gulf. Dry and stable conditions will prevent
thunderstorm development elsewhere.

..Mosier.. 01/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011704
SWODY2
SPC AC 011702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Moderate to strong northwest flow aloft will exist across the CONUS
on Thursday, extending from an upper ridge over the West Coast to
the East Coast. As this western ridge shifts eastward, a tightening
midlevel thermal gradient will develop over the Plains, with a minor
trough amplification from the Mid/Lower MS Valley into the
Southeast.

At the surface, high pressure will maintain a stable air mass over
land, with any appreciable instability over the western Gulf of
Mexico. As the upper wave develops, lift will increase across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast after 00Z, with precipitation
developing. It still appears that any weak elevated instability may
be insufficient for thunderstorms over land, but a isolated flash
cannot be ruled out near the TX/LA Coasts.

..Jewell.. 01/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020657
SWODY2
SPC AC 020655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A pair of phased shortwave troughs are forecast to progress through
the large-scale troughing expected to be in place across the eastern
CONUS, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday afternoon.
Mid-level flow will strengthen in the wake of these waves,
coincident with another shortwave trough dropping from the northern
Plains into the Mid MS Valley. Expansive surface ridging will cover
much of the central and eastern CONUS, with the associated dry and
stable conditions dominating the sensible weather and precluding
thunderstorm development.

Father west, ridging will continue gradually shifting eastward,
ahead of a progressive shortwave trough forecast to move into the
Pacific Northwest. By early Saturday, the upper ridging is expected
to extend across the entire High Plains and into Alberta and
Saskatchewan, with the shortwave trough extending from northwest
WA/southwest British Columbia through the western Great Basin.

Frontal band associated with the progressive shortwave will likely
move onshore early Friday. Some deeper cells are possible within
this band, but these cells will still be too shallow for lightning
production. Another period of deeper convection is possible as the
upper trough and cold mid-level temperatures approach the coast
Friday afternoon. A few low-topped thunderstorms are possible
offshore, with a low-probability flash or two possible over
immediate coastal portions of WA and OR as well.

..Mosier.. 01/02/2025

$$

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