ACUS03 KWNS 081920
SWODY3
SPC AC 081919
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL
PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent
Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern
CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take
on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base
of the trough from the southern Great Plains into the lower MS
Valley. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is
expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley,
with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the
period along the trailing cold front that will move across the
Southeast.
...Parts of MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle...
The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to the south and west,
but the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. While generally
weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to limit instability across
the warm sector Tuesday, modest diurnal heating and mid 60s F
dewpoints could support MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg into the
afternoon, if early-day convection is not too disruptive.
Low/midlevel flow will generally strengthen through the day in
response to the approaching shortwave trough, resulting in favorably
long hodographs and the potential for organized storms. Any
sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat
of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. The northern and
eastern extent of the diurnal organized-severe threat will be
limited by a spatially constrained warm sector, though a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into
middle/eastern TN.
...Late Tuesday night from the Carolinas into GA/north FL...
A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop
across the eastern Carolinas/Georgia late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying mid/upper-level
shortwave trough approaching the Southeast. Weak lapse rates and
increasingly widespread precipitation will continue to limit
instability, but there may be some potential for low-topped
convection with gusty winds to spread across parts of GA/north FL
into the Carolinas. Some low-level moistening will also be possible
in the NC Outer Banks vicinity late in the period, as low-level and
deep-layer shear continue to increase, but potential for any robust
convection in this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains very
uncertain.
..Dean.. 12/08/2024
$$
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