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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0282

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Mar 17 02:55:56 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 170255
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170255=20
    NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-170500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0282
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0955 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

    Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic region

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...

    Valid 170255Z - 170500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain likely over the next hour across
    parts of the Mid-Atlantic, but a gradual weakening trend is expected
    as a squall line moves into a more stable air mass.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered reports of wind damage continue to filter in
    as a shallow squall line pushes east across the Mid-Atlantic region.
    Although most of this line will soon move offshore in the coming
    hour or so, the northern portion of the line will continue to move
    into NJ and perhaps far southern NY in the next few hours. Based on
    recent velocity data and surface observations, damaging winds will
    remain likely roughly over the next hour. With time, this band will
    move into a cooler/drier air mass where temperatures are only in the
    upper 50s (with pockets of low 60s). Based on the recent 00z OKX
    RAOB and recent forecast soundings, these temperatures (coupled with
    dewpoints in the low 50s) may be sufficiently cool to modulate
    downward momentum flux to the surface within the convective
    downdrafts. That said, the KOKX VWP continues to sample 70 knot
    winds within the lowest 0.5 km, so an isolated damaging wind threat
    may persist into southern NY as the line gradually weakens.
    Confidence in the persistence of the damaging wind threat beyond the
    next 1-2 hours is limited given the overall degradation of buoyancy
    with northeastward extent; downstream watch issuance is not
    expected.

    ..Moore.. 03/17/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6hcBkKbBXmtsJm4_nU3NOXlaz49rd384PKlWGBUtTx-XQKOYdiuu8pYHbTYdzA4-BV5nXQj0X= f0Xtt_2Voeobr2Iw-U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...

    LAT...LON 38007563 38877564 39687561 41087545 41337523 41557442
    41537402 41387357 41197321 40847303 40667305 40587336
    40467369 40267380 39977389 39657400 39147445 38717478
    38347496 38017510 37867521 37877539 37897550 38007563=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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