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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0281

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Mar 17 01:05:25 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 170105
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170104=20
    NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-170300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0281
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0804 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

    Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic including Washington
    D.C.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...

    Valid 170104Z - 170300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe squall line will continue to push east/northeast
    across parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours and pose a
    risk for wind damage.

    DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour have shown a gradual
    uptick in reflectivity and VIL values as a shallow convective line
    continues to push into a plume of returning moisture (low 60s
    dewpoints). The 00z RAOB from IAD sampled 372 J/kg SBCAPE, which
    while modest, is sufficient for severe convection given ample ascent
    ahead of the ejecting upper wave and very strong flow just above the
    surface (50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer). Numerous
    instances of wind damage have been reported along the line over the
    past 1-2 hours, as well as observed gusts between 45-55 mph
    (including a 66 mph gust at Dulles/KIAD). This trend is expected to
    continue as the line pushes east over the next few hours into a
    similar thermodynamic and kinematic environment as sampled at IAD.
    Based on latest storm track estimates, this line should approach the
    Chesapeake Bay by around 02 UTC and may reach western Delaware by
    around 03 UTC.

    ..Moore.. 03/17/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!79ivVeFS5h_S_EgM6op781vGOhmiRTuKlYvVH7fuqTjtYlpqA5cU4stfg4Y2hiBiDY_gR7riL= DDW_F1YSVN37b-mUt4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 36927592 36717639 36597674 36597702 36657718 36777726
    37197720 37727727 38257740 38607741 38897729 39147700
    39617569 39317528 38697498 38267507 37797531 37307565
    36927592=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)